Sun vs. Mercury WNBA Picks and In-Depth Analysis

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Diamond DeShields #1 of the Phoenix Mercury handles the ball during the first half of the WNBA game against the Seattle Storm. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP.

The Connecticut Sun has a rare second leg of a back-to-back tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. Can the Sun overcome the tough stretch of schedule, or will Phoenix hold serve as home underdogs?

Where is the value for our betting pick tonight? Let’s break it down!

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

Friday, June 03, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center

Mercury’s Analysis

Phoenix has it rough to start the season. Brittney Griner’s illegal detention in Russia is just the tip of the iceberg for this team.

The schedule-makers in the league office seem to also have it out for Phoenix in the early going. They have played six of their first nine games on the road and just returned from that road trip recently after losing six straight.

The stretch of road games has been tough. They have played Las Vegas and Seattle in five of their nine games so far this season and have losses against Dallas, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and the defending champion Sky most recently.

Sun's Analysis

That being said, even with Jasmine Thomas done for the season in Connecticut, the Sun are still one of the best teams in the WNBA right now.

Beating them, even at home, is going to be a challenge for the Mercury despite having home-court and the rest advantages.

Sun vs. Mercury: Betting Odds

We’ve already seen this line drop some from +5 ½ to +4 ½ across the WNBA odds board.

While I am tempted to follow the steam of the best sportsbooks, I’m not ready to trust the flailing Mercury against one of the league’s best.

Sun vs. Mercury: Betting Pick and Prediction

That being said, I do like a play on the total in this game for several reasons.

The Pace of the Game

  • The first is that the only way for the Mercury to win this game will be to speed up the Sun.
  • Not only is Connecticut coming off a game last night, but the Mercury thrive when the pace is quickened.
  • Playing a tired opponent at a fast pace should be the number one goal for the Mercury tonight.

The Lacking Defenses

  • Phoenix already plays in the top half of the league in pace for full games, but the second reason I like this play is the potential for lacking defenses.
  • Phoenix ranks 9th in defensive rating and in first halves, and their offense has struggled too.
  • I think the latter of that will turn around here against a tired team and I fully expect even a tired Sun to lay down the law tonight on offense.
  • Connecticut has also seen their first-half road defense suffer this season.
  • Connecticut is allowing over 102 points per 100 possessions in the first halves away from Mohegan Sun Arena. Compare that to allowing just 83.2 points per 100 possessions in first halves at home.

The Offense

  • Connecticut ranks second in the league behind only the Aces in offensive rating.
  • They are averaging almost 112 points per 100 possessions in the first halves.

The Sharp Pick

As you can see, I like the first-half Over here. Between the Sun’s tired legs, the predicted pace of this game, and the lapse first-half defenses, I think it’s one of the better WNBA plays of the day.

WNBA Pick: Over 81 1st Half (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 81 1st Half (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.