The Seattle Storm will try to move up in the WNBA standings on Thursday as they travel to Connecticut to play the Sun.
Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun
Thursday, July 28, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
WNBA Stretch Run
It’s a packed few weeks of the WNBA regular season as these women wind down their seasons, and that means as we get closer to the playoffs, the games that have meaning due to the new playoff format will be extra competitive.
Look no further than tonight’s game between the Sun and Storm for that kind of action: the Sun are sitting in the third seed of the playoffs right now with the Storm right on their heels. Seattle is only a game back and could move into a virtual tie with a win tonight on the road. The Sun still hold the tiebreaker, but the two teams would have identical records with a Storm win tonight.
The WNBA oddsmakers and punters seem to think there is a good chance of the Storm winning too. After opening as -5.5 favorites, the Sun have moved all the way down to -3.5 tonight at home.
The Storm's Deadly Duo
The Storm have been a different team since they were able to sign Tina Charles. Charles is averaging 16 points per game over her last six contests and the Storm are 4-2 SU during that stretch.
The former number one overall pick is a dangerous asset when paired with Breanna Stewart. Charles frees up a lot of space for Stewart around the perimeter and that has been evident lately for the Storm.
Stewart has dropped more than 20 points in four straight games and the duo of Charles and Stewart is going to be a tough assignment for the Sun tonight.
The Sun's Counter Attack
That being said, the Sun have a formidable front-court duo as well.
Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones have dominated opponents this season, but this will be the first time they have to face the Storm with both Charles and Stewart to deal with.
That should make for some good defense tonight too and I think it will have a big effect on the WNBA odds for this game, especially in the first half.
The Sharp Pick
Seattle owns the league’s second-best first-half defense this season and the Sun are right behind them in third.
The Storm have also struggled on the road in the first halves. I’ve touched on this before, but through 12 road games, the Storm have the league’s 10th-ranked offensive efficiency, averaging just 93.7 points per 100 possessions. On top of this, the Sun play at one of the slowest paces in the entire W in first halves. At home this season, the Sun rank 11th out of 12 teams in first-half pace.
Combine all of this with the dominant frontcourts and a desire to win this game for playoff positioning and I could see a drag-out first half.
The full game total is already shrinking from 161 to 159, but the first half total has only gone down from 80 to 79. I could easily see this first quarter being in the teens and leading to neither team hitting the 40-point mark in the first half.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.