Mercury vs. Sparks WNBA Odds, Preview and Pick

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Diana Taurasi #3 of the Phoenix Mercury attempts a shot against the Seattle Storm during the first half of the WNBA game. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The Los Angeles Sparks are coming off getting beaten down on the road and now they head back home to welcome a dangerous Phoenix Mercury squad.

Below, we’ll go over the WNBA odds and give you a free winning pick!

Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 – 10:30 PM EDT at Crypto.com

Mercury vs. Sparks Recap

We cashed a big fat ticket on the Aces two nights ago against these same Sparks and the game went pretty much as I predicted it would.

The Sparks have been abysmal in the first halves and first quarters this season and Monday they were outscored by 20 points in the first quarter alone.

Adding that huge black hole to their already suffering first-half analytics and the Sparks now have a first-half net rating of -17.9 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst in the WNBA.

Granted, the season is young, but first-half issues plagued the Sparks last season and at some point, one has to wonder whether it’s a coaching problem, because on paper the Sparks should be a lot better team than they are right now.

Mercury's Last Season Recap

Things don’t get any easier on Wednesday, even at home, even though the Mercury are also coming off getting embarrassed by the Aces. In fact, three of Mercury’s four losses have come to Las Vegas.

The Mercury have been underperforming some with Brittney Griner wrongfully imprisoned halfway across the world, but they are still a good team.

Those three games against Las Vegas and two against Seattle weigh heavy on their record and advanced stats.

Brittney Griner's Influence

One has to think that the situation with Griner has affected the Mercury’s play both mentally and on the court, but the other factor is directly related to Griner not playing in the defense.

Speaking of being worst in the WNBA, the Mercury own a 107.8 defensive rating this season through six games.

Having five of your six games against two of the W’s best teams have a lot to do with that, but it’s still going to be an issue for this team.

It’s hard to trust either team here for these reasons ATS, but that being said, the total for this game could be a very nice value on this single-game slate.

Mercury vs. Sparks: Who to Bet On?

While the Sparks don’t play with a ton of pace, I don’t think the Mercury will allow LA to slow this game down to a grind.

Phoenix ranks third in the league in pace to start the season and even though I expect their defense to get better tonight, their game plan may be to run this team out of the building early.

They must have watched tape on the Sparks at this point and have seen how easy it is to get a lead early in games against them.

On top of that, the Sparks are allowing 103.7 points per 100 possessions to their opponents this season, so assuming we see the Mercury’s favored pace, I like that number to go up after tonight.

If Phoenix gets 80-plus possessions, this is a nice overvalue for the full game. The first half is good too, but for now, I’m staying with just the full game for my official betting pick.

WNBA Pick: Over 165.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 165.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.