Mercury vs. Mystics WNBA Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Shatori Walker-Kimbrough #32 of the Washington Mystics shoots a three point basket against the Seattle Storm. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

The Washington Mystics should be getting their best player back tonight against the Phoenix Mercury. Will that be enough to cover a spread that is three possessions and counting?

Keep reading as we’ll break down the WNBA odds and share a sharp winning pick!

Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics

Tuesday, June 14, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Entertainment & Sports Arena

Elena Delle Donne Listed as Probable

Two nights ago against these same Mercury, Elena Delle Donne was listed as probable after sitting out last week’s game against the Sky.

However, at the last minute, Delle Donne was ruled out for the game that the Mystics eventually lost in overtime.

Now, two days later, in the same gym and against the same opponent, Delle Donne is once again listed as probable.

Delle Donne Injury and Odds

Delle Donne hurt her back in a game over a week ago in Chicago and has missed the last three games for the Mystics.

However, with the WNBA odds sitting at -7 ½ in favor of the Mystics and climbing, one has to think that Delle Donne will indeed suit up and play tonight.

We talked about this in our last game handicapping the Mystics, but Washington is incredibly deep.

They have six or seven players that are double-digit scoring threats even outside of Delle Donne. When you add in the former league MVP, this team is tough to guard.

However, the Mercury are improving on defense and it could lead to a nice play here on Tuesday.

WNBA Pick for Today

The Mercury should put up another good fight here but the game tonight will be entirely different from two nights ago.

With Delle Donne (probably) back in action, the Mystics will get even easier shots at the rim and I don’t think the Mercury can stop them.

Success in the Defense Early

That being said, I think they’ll have some success on defense early in the game, even if Delle Donne is on the court.

Phoenix owns the league’s fourth-best first-half defense over their last five games and the Mystics rank second during that same stretch.

Considering how well the Mystics have played defensively at home and early in those home games, I could see the under being a great first-half play between these two.

Washington Analysis

  • Washington is allowing 91.5 points per 100 possessions in first halves at home, which ranks fourth-best in the WNBA this season.
  • Even further consideration leads us to the under when we note that Mercury also ranks 10th in the W in first-half road offensive rating.

Phoenix Analysis

  • Phoenix is one of only three teams averaging less than 90 points per 100 possessions in the first halves on the road.
  • Atlanta and New York are the only teams currently worse than Phoenix in the first-half offense.

After they played each other to a combined first-half score of fewer than 80 points two nights ago, for my betting picks, I could see defense improving after being familiarized with one another in their recent game.

WNBA Pick: Under 82.5 1st Half (-110) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Under 82.5 1st Half (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.