Liberty vs. Sky WNBA Picks and In-Depth Analysis

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Candace Parker #3 of the Chicago Sky looks on against the Seattle Storm. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

The Chicago Sky lost the Commissioner’s Cup, so does that mean they will take their frustrations out on the lowly New York Liberty?

New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky

Friday, July 29, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Wintrust Arena

Sky's Tough Schedule Stretch

While the top-rated sportsbooks have the Sky as -10 favorites in this game at home, after tonight, things get pretty tough for the Sky. Entering play on Friday, the Sky hold a small one-game lead on the Las Vegas Aces for the top spot in the WNBA Playoffs, but that may be tough for them to hold onto, even if they win tonight.

After tonight’s game, the Sky close their regular season schedule by playing seven games against teams that are all currently in the playoffs. That’s not going to be easy, even for a loaded team like Chicago.

With that in mind, I’m sure head coach James Wade is telling his team that they don’t have room for error tonight and they need to take care of business at home efficiently.

How Will the Sky Approach This Game?

The Sky will want to give the Libs the business early in this game so they can prepare for a much tougher opponent on Sunday when they head to Connecticut to play the Sun in a quick-turnaround matinee.

I think that will give the Sky an edge here, but a 10-point spread is tough when the Libs have the shooting they do.

Getting hot on the road has been a problem for the Libs, but they are very capable of putting up points. Their problems have centered around the defensive end lately, which I also think will show its’ face tonight against one of the league’s best home teams.

Liberty vs. Sky: Betting Pick and Prediction

Considering the Commissioner’s Cup loss is still probably fresh in their minds and losing out on that money was definitely not easy, I think the Sky take their frustrations out on the Libs tonight.

Being at home helps, but being on the road hurts the Libs here as well, especially early in the game. I could see the Sky taking it to the Liberty early and often in this one and it’s one of the reasons I like Chicago's WNBA odds in the first half.

How Does the Liberty Perform in First Halves?

New York ranks 11th out of 12 teams in first-half offense on the road this season. Only the Indiana Fever have a worse road offensive rating in first halves this season.

On top of that, the Libs’ first-half road defensive rating ranks 8th this season and they are being outscored by an average net rating of -11.4 points per 100 possessions in those spots.

How Does the Sky Perform in First Halves?

The Sky on the other hand rank 4th-best in both offensive and defensive rating in first halves at home. Add in how poorly the Libs have looked lately too and I think -5.5 in the first half is a really good value here for our betting picks.

Over their last five games the Liberty rank dead last in first-half offensive rating and over their most recent 2-7 SU stretch, they are being outscored in first halves at -22.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Sharp Pick

These two teams just played one another a week ago and the Sky only won by 3 points, but other than that, the Liberty have looked pretty poor early in games and I think that continues.

WNBA Pick: Sky First Half -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Sky First Half -5.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.