Liberty vs. Aces WNBA Picks and In-Depth Analysis

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Jackie Young #0 of the Las Vegas Aces shoots against Jewell Loyd #24 of the Seattle Storm. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP

The New York Liberty have a tough stretch of schedule before the All-Star Break. They open the front half of a back-to-back on Wednesday as double-digit underdogs against a deadly Las Vegas Aces team.

Let’s see what the WNBA Odds tell us for this matchup.

New York Liberty Vs. Las Vegas Aces

Wednesday, July 06, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena

Libs Face Tall Hill

The Liberty dug a pretty deep hole to start the season after opening 1-7 SU. They have since gone 7-5 SU to claw their way back up the standings, but they still find themselves looking up at the rest of the league in the playoffs.

A win tonight or tomorrow would go a long way in helping their playoff chances as we enter the All-Star Break this weekend, but they have a tough stretch of schedule to close the year.

Going Against the Elite Teams

Starting tonight, they play three of their next four games straddling the break against the Aces and seven of their next eight games are against teams in the top four of the playoff standings as of Wednesday morning.

Needless to say, it’s no wonder they are double-digit dogs in this game against one of the league’s elite teams.

Aces Have the Upper Hand

Las Vegas comes into tonight as the league’s top offense, averaging 106.4 points per 100 possessions across 21 games this season. At home they’re even more deadly, posting an offensive rating of 108.7 across 11 games played in Vegas.

That’s bad news for the Libs, who have been one of the poorest road performers in the WNBA all season.

New York is allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions in their nine road games this season and they have the second-worst road net rating. Indiana Fever have the worst net rating per 100 possessions on the road.

The Sharp Pick

It’s for these and other reasons I like the Aces -6 in the first half for my betting picks. New York is averaging just 89.2 points per 100 possessions in road first halves this season, which is dead last in the W.

While I do think they will fight hard here, their lack of reliable offense after their first couple of options is going to cause them a lot of trouble against the Aces.

The Las Vegas defense isn’t great, but it’s good enough to clamp down on the Libs early in this one, in hopes of putting them away and coasting into the All-Star Break with a victory.

If Vegas can force their will on the Libs early enough, New York may fold knowing they have a game in Phoenix tomorrow night. That may also make the full game spread doable for me too, but for now, I am keeping to the first half.

WNBA Pick: 1st Half Aces -6 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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1st Half Aces -6 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.