We saw some big blowouts in both Game 3’s of the quarter-final round of the WNBA Playoffs and all the favorites advanced into the best of five semi-finals.
With the semis starting on Sunday, how should we go about betting these WNBA odds for the two series to decide the WNBA Finals participants?
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Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
Sunday, August 28, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena
Seattle Storm vs. Aces Analysis
In round one, #4 Seattle Storm (+210) made quick work of the Washington Mystics and now are faced with opening the semi-finals with two straight games in Sin City.
While the Storm have continued to be one of the best defenses in the WNBA, their offense has taken a hit this season overall. That being said, the Storm’s season is twofold. The Storm acquired Tina Charles in late June right at the halfway point of their season.
Over their first 18 games, they had a muddling 98.3 offensive rating and in the final 18 games with Charles in the lineup, their offensive rating spiked to 107 points per 100 possessions.
Now, as the Storm face off against the dynamic frontcourt of the #1 La Vegas Aces (-250), Seattle having Charles to pair with the league’s leading scorer, Breanna Stewart, makes for a tasty matchup.
Teams' Injuries
The Aces will be without Dearica Hamby in Game 1 and it appears that she may not be ready at all in this series. She has been out since August 9 when she got injured three minutes into a game with Atlanta.
The Storm aren’t without injury concerns either. Gabby Williams suffered a concussion in Game 2 of their series against the Mystics, although she isn’t as important to Seattle as Hamby is to the Aces.
With that, the guard play of this series will end up favoring the Aces, if only slightly.
Seattle Storm vs. Aces: Matchup Prediction
Sue Bird’s last playoffs may be ending here and the top sportsbooks seem to agree giving the Aces a series price that is -200 or longer to win this series.
I love Jewel Loyd and Bird is still a handful even at age 41, but the three-headed monster of Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray have been giving teams fits all year and that will continue I think.
The Hamby news makes this at least interesting though. I do think the Storm have some value, but it may be more in Game 1 as +5 underdogs.
Seattle scored over 110 points per 100 possessions on the road after they acquired Charles.
WNBA Pick: Storm 5.5 (-108) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
Sunday, August 28, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Wintrust Arena
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Analysis
A series that could easily go all five games, according to the WNBA futures, is the two-versus-three matchup between the #3 Connecticut Sun (+120) and the #2 Chicago Sky (-140). The defending champion Sky come in off dropping Game 1 to the New York Liberty only to dominate them in the final two games of the series.
The Sun lost Game 2 of the quarter-finals at home which forced a Game 3 back in Dallas against the Wings, but Connecticut took care of business on the road to advance.
The Sun had a couple of tough luck injuries this season that would have made this series and the potential playoff picture a lot different, but in the end, the Sun still have a very good team, especially on defense.
Connecticut ranked second overall in defensive rating this season and on the road, they ranked almost exactly the same in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Teams' Offense and Defense
Both of these teams finished the year last year allowing less than 100 points per 100 possessions.
While the Sky have changed up a little since their championship run and their defense has suffered a little, the team that gets to 75 points first is going to win this Game 1 and all the games beyond it. Defense is going to play a huge part here.
The offenses are too evenly matched, so for this series, I think I want to target the better defense and that is almost surely the Sun.
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: Matchup Prediction
I like their series price, but a better play in the WNBA futures may just be paying a little more juice to bet the under here at 165.5.
These teams will have had 3-4 days off since their quarter-final wins and that rest will be crucial here.
Connecticut played a brutally slow pace in their three first-round games and if that trend continues, I could see a lot of these first few games going under the total before the sportsbooks adjust.
WNBA Pick: Under 165.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
