Dream vs. Mercury WNBA Picks and In-Depth Analysis

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Tina Charles #31 of the Phoenix Mercury reacts after scoring against the Seattle Storm. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The Atlanta Dream defense held strong on Tuesday getting us the first half under cash. Their road trip continues tonight against the Phoenix Mercury, so can their defense continue to make us money? Below, we’ll break down in-depth the WNBA odds so that you can keep cashing out at BMR’s top-rated books and betting sites!

Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury

Friday, June 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center

Dream Injury Report

The Dream have a lot of talent outside of rookie sensation, Rhyne Howard, but injuries continue to hold back this team from their full potential. That storyline continued Tuesday with Erica Wheeler having to leave the game three minutes in after what appeared to be a sprained ankle.  

Turns out it was a foot injury, which is even more tricky and likely makes her somewhere between highly questionable and doubtful for tonight’s game.  

While the Dream have a ton of guard depth, this will hurt them on the offensive end. If it wasn’t for Howard’s scorching start to the season, Wheeler would likely be one of the team’s leading scorers at guard.  

Dream's Offensive End Loss: Erica Wheeler

I used to watch Wheeler put up big numbers in her All-Star season here in Indiana so her loss on the offensive end shouldn’t be understated if she is indeed out tonight.  

The Dream tweeted last night that “her status will be updated as appropriate.” Wheeler is also one of five Dream players to average more than a steal per game and while I think Aari McDonald and Kristy Wallace will be fine tonight if Wheeler is out, they don’t bring the same facilitating as Wheeler.  

You add up Wheeler running the offense and her own offense and that’s a big hole for Atlanta tonight. While the Mercury are far from a defensive juggernaut, the Dream may continue to struggle to score on Friday.  

Dream vs. Mercury Betting Analysis

The Dream

  • After Tuesday the Dream are now in sole possession of last place in offensive rating. The loss of Wheeler tonight will only exacerbate that. 
  • The Dream score only 90.4 points per 100 possessions. On the road, Atlanta averages just 88.9 points per 100 possessions.
  • I could easily see the Dream only getting in the low to mid-60s in points tonight.

The Mercury

  • Phoenix ranks seventh in offensive efficiency but they have been way better at home on offense. 
  • Phoenix will have Tina Charles back tonight but they will be without Sophie Cunningham’s offense and shooting off the bench, which will hurt their offensive upside slightly.  

Dream vs. Mercury Betting Pick

For our betting picks, I see a final score where the winning team won’t have more than 75 points

Even while both teams will play up in pace tonight and in a game in the low 80s in possessions makes the Dream’s offensive ceiling capped. This is especially true playing without their starting point guard. 

The good news is the Dream defense should still be good even without Wheeler and I think Wheeler’s potential absence hurts the offense more anyway.  

WNBA Pick: Under 155 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review

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Under 155 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.