Formula1 heads to Qatar for the first time ever in what will be a triple middle eastern set of races to the round of a spectacular F1 season. The remaining two races take place in Saudi Arabia (another first-time visit for F1) and finally to the track where many a world title in recent years has been won, Abu Dhabi. Will we see another favorite fail to win this weekend?
Formula 1 Qatar GP Grand Prix
Sunday, November 21, 2021 – 10: 00 AM EST at Losail International Circuit
Its Tight at the Top
Just one of the previous five-race this season has been won by the favorite, this goes to show how unpredictable Forumla1 has been this season and in recent races. The only race in the previous five in which the favorite won was Max Verstappen’s victory in Mexico.
Any F1 fan knows it’s very rare to go any more than maybe two races where the favorite does not win, more often than not the favorite will win between 65-85% of the races in a given calendar year. There are now just three races remaining and 14 points separate Hamilton and Verstappen, with the latter holding the 14 point lead.
Hamilton and Verstappen have dominated the standings, with both drivers finishing 1st and 2nd in 11 of 19 races thus far this season. Verstappen has won six races compared to Hamilton’s nine.
If Verstappen comes away with a win at the Qatar GP and Hamilton fails to finish the race then Hamilton would have to win the last two races remaining, and hope that Verstappen finishes 7th or worse in both races. This scenario is very unlikely as Verstappen has only failed to finish outside the top two on one occasion this season, besides his two retirements.
Hamilton can’t be relying on Verstappen to retire so essentially Hamilton best chance at retaining his crown is to win the Qatar GP on Sunday, even if Verstappen finished 2nd there will be no more than an 8 point gap (if Verstappen ends up with the fastest lap) heading into the final two races. It’s all to play for with three races remaining, but these next two races are going to be crucial as neither driver has ever raced on these tracks before.
Formula1 Pre Race Stats and Facts
- This will be the first-ever Formula 1 race held in Qatar at the Losail International circuit.
- Moto GP riders have been racing at this circuit almost every single year since its resurfacing in 2004.
- The circuit has a unique synthetic turf surrounding it to prevent the dust from the deserts surrounding it from blowing onto the track.
- F1 will be racing in Qatar a lot more in the future as it has agreed on a 10-year contract to race at a newly build purpose track in 2023.
- It goes without saying that F1 has come into the dispute to be racing in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia due to human rights abuse.
Winning Driver Odds
- Lewis Hamilton -140
- Max Verstappen +160
- Valtteri Bottas +1400
- Sergio Perez +1600
- Charles Leclerc +5100
- Lando Norris +6700
- Carlos Sainz +6700
- Daniel Riccardo +1000
- Pierre Gasly +1000
- Rest of Field +1000
Formula1 Race Picks
We are looking to stay well away from the winners market here, can we trust another heavily juiced favorite to win? I suppose Verstappen does look good value here at +160 and we wouldn’t disagree with it being a better play than Hamilton at -140, but with that being said it’s just too tight to call.
We believe we are getting some good value on between 17 and 18 classified drivers at +130 with Intertops (visit our Intertops Review). This is a new track for the drivers so we do expect one or two non-classified finishers, but more importantly, this bet has cashed 8 times thus far this season.
The Qatar track isn’t that overly difficult so we don’t expect to see a whole host of DNFs here but we expect to see 2 or 3 nonfinishers here. You can cover this play by betting over 18.5 finishers at +200. A 2unit risk on 17-18 drivers at +130 and a 1unit risk on over 18 finishers will result in a guaranteed profit.
Obviously, 16 or fewer finishers will result in a loss but we don’t expect to see that many, and only one race thus far this season has seen under 17.5 classified drivers.
Formula1 Picks: Between 17 and 18 classified drivers +130 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.