Aces vs. Wings WNBA Preview and Best Bet

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Guard Arike Ogunbowale #24 of the Dallas Wings drives to the basket against guard Blake Dietrick #11 of the Atlanta Dream. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

The Dallas Wings are coming off one of their biggest wins of the season as they enter a four-game homestand. First up is another dangerous matchup, this time against the Las Vegas Aces.

Read on for our breakdown of this match, including the latest WNBA odds and our free expert betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings

Thursday, August 04, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at College Park Center

Can Wings Get Another Improbable Win?

The WNBA Odds opened the Wings as +6 underdogs on Tuesday in Chicago, but when news broke of Arike Ogunbowale being injured and sitting out that game, oddsmakers and bettors alike hit the Sky like their life depended on it.

It moved the line all the way to +11, but it didn’t matter, because without their two best players, the Wings won outright on the road against the defending champs.

Marina Mabrey and Teaira McCowan combined for 46 points on 17-for-31 (54.8%) from the floor and the Wings were able to steal one from the defending champions.

Another Challenge to Face

Now they face another tough challenge and the status of Ogunbowale is unknown as of now. The Wings listed her as officially questionable for tonight’s game and considering the Wings are trying to fight off the Mercury and Liberty for the 6th overall playoff spot, if she is healthy, I expect her to play.

A loss tonight won’t kick them out of that spot, but the Wings are in a crucial portion of their season starting tonight. They open a four-game homestand Thursday and after their game tonight against Vegas, their final five games are against teams either sitting barely in, or just out of the playoff picture.

Getting Ogunbowale back for that stretch would be nice, but if she is still hurt, the Wings won’t want her to suffer a setback right before the postseason.

They could still lose this game with her, so I doubt she plays tonight. However, even if she does, I think we have a nice play for this game regardless. The Wings’ offense may be missing pieces, but they are still capable of putting up points her at home.

The Sharp Pick

Vegas ranks fourth overall in road defense this season, but their offense is also extremely potent on the road.

Lately, Vegas has been unmatched in road offense. Over their last six road games, the Aces have a 116.7 offensive rating, which is more than eight points better than the Storm, who rank second over that same span of their last six road games.

A Weakened Defense for Dallas

Dallas ranks eighth in home defense this season, allowing 102.5 points per 100 possessions across 14 home games, and lately their defensive rating has shot up to 106 across their last five home games.

Being without Satou Sabally definitely hurts their defense, but even if Ogunbowale doesn’t play here, I think the Wings put up some points at home.

The problem is, there isn’t much stopping the Aces from dropping 85-90 points. It’s for these reasons I like the over here.

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Las Vegas and Dallas have played each other twice this season and both times were pretty high-scoring affairs.

The total has gone over once and under another time, but the key thing to take away from those games was the pace.

They played at a pace of more than 83 possessions per 40 minutes, which translates into almost 100 possessions per 48 minutes.

If they continue to push the pace, I like the over here. I think we see the Aces put up a ton of points here, and while Ogunbowale playing would help us here, I don’t think it’s needed to cash the over.

WNBA Pick: Over 171 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 171 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.