NASCAR Pick: Logano to Finish Ahead of Larson (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their odds for the upcoming Daytona 500, one of NASCAR’s most well-known and highest-profile racing events. Last week’s race, Clash at the Coliseum, did not count for points. The preseason race saw Martin Truex Jr., Austin Dillon, and Kyle Busch finish first, second, and third, respectively.
This week’s race, though, is an entirely different animal: the stakes are different, the format is different, and the track is different. Read ahead for all of the relevant information about the race and about the drivers participating in it.
For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in two different drivers for the upcoming Daytona 500. Any Floridians interested in making some NASCAR wagers can use these Florida betting sites.
NASCAR Cup Series: Daytona 500
Sunday, February 19, 2023 – 02:30 PM EST at Daytona International Speedway
Last Week’s Race
Last week, the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum took place. Unlike this week’s upcoming race, last week’s event was an exhibition event that did not count for points. Even though it didn’t count for anything, winning must have felt good to Martin Truex Jr. because he had not won a race in over a season.
He’ll look to build off of this early success on Sunday, but I will go ahead and rule him out of the list of candidates to win Sunday’s race because it is very difficult and statistically unlikely for drivers to win back-to-back races.
For the upcoming Daytona 500, drivers must complete 200 laps amounting to 500 miles. As is usually the case, there will be three stages of this event:
- Stage 1 requires drivers to complete 65 laps
- Stage 2 also requires drivers to complete 65 laps
- Stage 3 consists of the remaining 70 laps
The starting lineup for this race is established via qualifying, the scheduling for which is notably unusual. Instead of on the weekend, qualifying for this race will take place on Wednesday night. You can watch the qualifying at 8:15 PM EST on FS1 to get an early look at the different drivers and their cars. Regarding format, qualifying is a single vehicle, one lap, and two rounds.
An entry list has already been published for this race. The entry list indicates that the race will be unusually filled-up with competitors—the entry list contains 42 drivers/teams for only 40 spots, although two drivers will have to miss the race to bring the number down to 40.
So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will participate in this race. We may expect all the usual suspects.
Daytona’s track is known for the higher speeds of its drivers. Two aspects of this track facilitate faster lap times. One, it is long. Each lap is 2.5 miles long. In being longer, drivers have more time to increase their speed on straightaways.
Two, the banking is high. As drivers navigate turns, they use the higher banking to collect more momentum for their vehicles. To be exact, the turns are banked at an impressive 31 degrees; the tri-oval is banked at 18 degrees; and the back straightaway is banked at two degrees.
Drivers to Avoid
One driver worth avoiding is Kyle Larson. Larson’s performances are repeatedly catastrophic on this track. Despite beginning them in pole position, he didn’t finish in the top 30 in both of his last races here.
For all of his overall success, Larson ranks, in terms of average finishing position, behind lower-profile drivers like Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick at this race. Also avoid Brad Keselowski, another high-profile driver who typically performs poorly at Daytona. His average finishing position here is worse than Larson’s.
In terms of his average finishing position, Joey Logano is more consistent than Larson at Daytona and less likely to suffer a catastrophic finish. Logano is also a proven winner at this track. So, I recommend betting on him to finish ahead of Larson.
I also like Austin Cindric, who has impressively finished top three in each of his last three races at Daytona. This unique degree of high-level consistency makes him attractive in match-up betting. I recommend betting on Cindric to finish ahead of Austin Dillon.
While Dillon won last year’s race, winning consecutive renditions of this race is statistically vastly improbable. Dillon’s average finishing position here is about eight spots worse than Cindric’s, and before winning, Dillon had failed to finish top-15 in three straight tries. Historically, Dillon is less reliable here than Cindric.
For your NASCAR betting picks, invest in Logano and Cindric to win their respective matchups.
NASCAR Pick: Logano to Finish Ahead of Larson (-115) at Bovada
NASCAR Pick: Cindric to Finish Ahead of Dillon (-125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.