NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-115) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
This cross-conference clash sees the Maple Leafs play host to the Minnesota Wild in what will be the Leafs’ final home game before their four-game road stretch. Minnesota, on the other hand, is looking to make it five wins in a row following their current 4-0 streak which now has them just six points shy of the top spot in the Western Conference.
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Minnesota Wild vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Friday, February 24, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena
It’s been a poor season for the Minnesota Wild in front of goals having scored just 2.84 goals per game, which is the eighth-lowest in the NHL and it’s amazing to think they are just three points shy of topping their division with such a poor scoring record.
With that said, the Western Conference is very weak in comparison to the East, for example, the Wild are in seventh and trailing top-placed Vegas by just six points. Had they been in the Eastern Conference they would be still in seventh but trailing sixth place by six points and nowhere close to the top four spots.
Despite going 4-0 in their last four games, Minnesota has not been playing strong hockey and just about won all four games, three of which were against much weaker opposition.
Leafs Superior on Home Ice
Toronto holds the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference having gone 22-10 at home this season and having a top-seven offense. Their offense is scary but they don’t push too high up the charts, most likely because they don’t need to because their defense has been much better this season than in recent years.
Looking at the defense, the Leafs have only allowed 2.66 goals per game (fifth-best) and sit with a +44 goal difference overall this season, making them one of only three teams in the entire league to have a goal difference of +44 or higher.
Stats and Trends
- Minnesota is 1-4 in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division
- The total has gone under in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
- Minnesota is 4-1 in their last 5 games
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto is 15-5 in their last 20 games at home
- Toronto is 12-4 in their last 16 games against an opponent in the Western Conference
- The total has gone over in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games against an opponent in the Central Division
*When it comes to making your NHL picks, stats and trends are merely guidelines and mostly irrelevant information but nonetheless can be interesting to read and might steer you in the right direction.
Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation
Not only have the Toronto Maple Leafs a much better team all around, but they should also be able to outscore this Minnesota team who have only scored 20 goals in their previous 10 games (ouch). Compare that to Toronto who has scored 39 in their past 10.
Yes, the Minnesota Wild have won 4 of their last 5 and have allowed 0/1/3/1 goals in their previous four, but none of those four were against elite offenses such as Toronto and the Canadian team also has the added advantage of being on home ice and even had an extra days rest than the Wild.
Toronto boasts a 9-2-2 record on home ice against Western Conference teams this year and we believe they can win this one in regulation at NHL odds of -115. The last time these teams faced off at Scotiabank arena was almost exactly a year ago today, the Leafs won that game 3-1.
NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-115) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.