NHL Pick: Senators ML (+130) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Senators welcomed the Penguins to Ottawa two nights ago and came away with a 5-4 overtime victory. Although the venue has changed we expect the results to be the same.
Let’s review the NHL odds on this Eastern Conference clash and keep cashing our NHL picks!
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Friday, January 20, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST PPG Paints Arena
Sens Power Past Pens
The Senators entered their Wednesday night affair with the Penguins after dropping 4 of their last 5 and fell behind early when Pittsburgh’s Jason Zucker drew first blood early in the opening period. However, the Senators would rally back in a seesaw battle that saw all four of Ottawa’s regulation goals come via the power play.
Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Shane Pinto all lit the lamp on the man-advantage situation to send the game into extra innings. Brady Tkachuk would tally just 25 seconds into overtime and the Senators would claim a 5-4 OT victory in the clubs’ first meeting of the season.
Senators coach D.J. Smith liked what he saw from his power play unit after they converted 4-of-9 man-advantage situations. “I think of late we’ve been a little bit slow. I think we were too deliberate and then when you score one early it just seems to go a little bit better and we’ve got good players.”
Pens Struggle to Get Back on Track
Pittsburgh has now lost 9 of their last 12, and during those dozen games, they have been outscored 44-32. Four of those contests have gone into overtime with Pittsburgh winning only one of those extra-session contests.
The 5-4 loss to the Senators was just the latest setback for a team missing their best three right-handed defensemen, as Kris Letang, Jeff Petry, and Jan Rutta have been on the sidelines rehabbing from injuries. It should also be noted the Senators outshot the Penguins, 40-19, and controlled the pace and tempo of the game despite the one-goal margin of victory.
Pittsburgh had a pair of power-play goals of their own, courtesy of Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell while Jason Zucker and Mark Friedman also buried the biscuit on 5-on-5 situations.
Penguins coach Mike Sullivan was not enamored with the refereeing and stated after the game “It’s pretty tough to assess a game like that when half of the game is special teams. There was no flow to it, there was no 5-on-5. It was ridiculous. Let’s just say I question a fair amount of the calls.”
Total Trends
- Over is 4-1-1 in the Penguins’ last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-1-1 in the Penguins’ last 6 home games.
- Over is 3-1-1 in the Penguins’ last 5 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Team Trends
- Senators are 6-0 in their last 6 Friday games.
- Senators are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
- Senators are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Metropolitan
- Penguins are 3-9 in their last 12 overall.
- Penguins are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
- Penguins are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
- Penguins are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Senators vs. Penguins: Picks and Prediction
The early odds at the best betting sites in Pennsylvania on this one show the Penguins as -150 favorites which puzzles me a bit. I understand why they would be favored as it is in their own barn. However, these teams are fairly even and Pittsburgh is without their starting goalie, Tristan Jarry, which means either Casey DeSmith or barely used third-stringer Dustin Tokarski will be tending the twine for the Pens.
On the flip side, Anton Forsberg or Cam Talbot will be back in the net for the Senators and neither goalie is all that terrific this season, which means this is set up as another high-scoring affair between these clubs. The Penguins are also without three right-handed defensemen and the absence of Kris Letang looms large.
Even if Letang does return to meet the Senators on Friday night, which is doubtful, he won’t be in game shape and that will be to Ottawa’s advantage. I realize Ottawa has many shortfalls but they are catching the Penguins just right. They beat them 5-4 the other night and this could be a replay of that contest, especially if the Senators’ No. 4 ranked power play gets as many opportunities as they did on Wednesday.
Score Prediction: Ottawa 5 - Penguins 4
NHL Pick: Senators ML (+130) at Bookmaker
NHL Pick: Over 6.5 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
