Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL Best Bets Today

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Taylor Raddysh #16 of the Tampa Bay Lightning skates. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

The fight for a playoff spot is well and truly on in the Atlantic division, although the Florida Panthers are currently running away with the top spot, we have four teams on 11 and 10 points and this doesn’t even include last year’s Stanley Cup finalists (Montreal) who are bottom of the pile. The Boston Bruins still have to get going also as they only have 8 points.

It is early days yet this season but this game right here could literally come down to who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. The Lightning head into this game as an underdog at +112, whilst the hosts are -130. Which team will prevail in Toronto tonight?

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Thursday, November 4, 2021 – 7:00 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena

Tampa Bay Are Back

Tampa Bay seemed to have gotten over their post-Stanley Cup hangover in recent games as they are now on a 3-0 run which has seen them beat the Capitals 3-2 and hand out 5-1 defeats to the Penguins and Coyotes. The Lightning has shored up their defense in recent games also, which has been vital to their hot run.

They allowed 25 goals across their opening 6 games, an average of just over 4 per game. That has since dropped to 3.22 after only allowing 4 goals in their previous three NHL games.

Leafs Have Been Improving

Toronto has started to look better in recent games, they are also on a 3-0 run like the Lightning. The Leafs were in a bad run of form losing 4 of their 5 games prior to this hot streak which has seen them score 11 goals in that run and an impressive 4-0 win over the Golden Knights last time out.

Jack Campbell has been hot lately and had that shutout against the Knights will give him nothing but confidence, he has only allowed 1.99 GAA this season, which is the 3rd best ranked amongst goalkeepers in the NHL this season who have played 8 or more games.

TJohn Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maples congratulates teammate Jack Campbell #36. Claus Andersen/Getty Images/AFP

Team Trends

*Trends should never be your main source of information when it comes to making your betting picks, they are merely guidelines and mostly irrelevant information but nonetheless can be interesting to read.

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Tampa Bay is 10-5 in their last 15 games.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2 in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto.
  • The total has gone under in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing as the underdog

Toronto Maple Leafs

  • The total has gone under in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home.
  • Toronto is 2-4 in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference.

What Are The Betting Odds and Current Lines?

Moneyline: We are seeing some nice plus money in the Tampa Bay Lightning here with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as they are coming in at +112 on the money line. If you believe the Maple Leafs is the play here, you will have to pay juice up to at least -125 with most sportsbooks.

Total: The total line opened up at 6.5 but has since dropped to a steady 6.0. The current odds on the over is +105, whilst the under is -114.

Puck Line: The Lightning is receiving a lot of juice on the +1.5 puck line here like dogs, with their betting odds being priced up at -210. Toronto on the -1.5 line is coming in at +180, but the best value out there in our opinion on the puck line is the Lighting -1.5 at +270.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Prediction

Although this will be Tampa’s first trip to Canada this season, and Toronto has been strong on home ice (winning 7 of their previous 9, and one of those losses was in overtime) we can’t take the Lighting at plus money. They have a much better defense than their opponents here and arguably a slightly better offense also.

Yes, Toronto has been around -200 at home all season long and we are getting them at -130 here but it’s just too hard to pass on the Stanley Cup champions at plus money. We also like the Lightning at the -1.5 puck line at +270, we are predicting 4-1 / 4-2 scoreline to the away team here.

NHL Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning +112 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Tampa Bay Lightning +112
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.