Lightning vs. Avalanche Stanley Cup Final Game 5 Predictions and Free Pick

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Mikko Rantanen #96 of the Colorado Avalanche celebrates a goal scored by Valeri Nichushkin #13 of the Colorado Avalanche during the second period. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

The Avalanche hold a 3-1 series lead and will look to end the Lightning’s two-year reign as Stanley Cup champions with a victory on their home ice on Friday night. Let’s analyze this Game 5 Stanley Cup Finals matchup and keep cashing our NHL picks!

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche

Friday, June 24, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at Ball Arena

Game 4 Recap

Game 4 was only 36 seconds old when the Lightning struck and drew first blood off the stick of Anthony Cirelli who buried a loose rebound past Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper.

It appeared this was going to be another sterling night for the reigning champs. Still, Colorado’s goal-scoring phenom, Nathan MacKinnon, would even things up early in the second period as he redirected a shot off of his skate past Andrei Vasilevskiy during a power-play opportunity.

Victor Hedman would deposit his third playoff goal five minutes later to move the Lightning in front but that would be the end of the scoring for Tampa Bay as Andrew Cogliano would respond with a game-tying goal early in the third period to knot the game at two apiece.

After 60 Minutes in Game 4

After 60 minutes the game was even but at 12:02 of the overtime session, Nazem Kadri lifted a fluttering shot on the net that deflected off of Vasilevskiy’s stick and settled entwined in the roof of the net.

It took a few seconds for the refs to realize where the puck had landed before euphoria erupted and the Colorado bench emptied in raucous celebration.

Cooper Whistles Call on Refs

Lightning coach Jon Cooper was none too pleased after the game when he wryly suggested the Avalanche had too many men on the ice when the game-winning goal was scored.

None of the four on-ice officials witnessed an infraction and the call was not subject to video review.

Cooper's Statements

“We’re all in this together. Players, coaches, refs, everybody. But this one is going to sting much more than others,” Cooper said.

“It’s going to be hard for me to speak. ... I’ll speak with you (Thursday). You’re going to see what I mean when you see the winning goal,” Cooper added.

“And my heart breaks for the players. Because we probably still should be playing.” The man who scored the game-winner, Nazem Kadri, had been inserted into the Colorado lineup after recovering from a thumb injury on June 4th.

Nazem Kadri Performance

It was the icing on the cake for the 31-year-old center who enjoyed a career year for the Avs with 28 goals, 59 assists, 87 points during the regular season, and 15 points in 14 games during the postseason.

“That was a huge win. A resilient win. I've been waiting for this my whole life,” the Colorado veteran exclaimed. “I figured it was time to join the party.”

Side Trends

  • The Avalanche are 5-1 in their last 6 Stanley Cup Finals games.
  • The Avalanche are 8-1-1 over their last 10 home games.
  • The Lightning are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.

Total Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 games following a win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Avalanche last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-2 in Avalanche last 10 Friday games.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in Lightning's last 6 Stanley Cup Finals games.

NHL Pick for Today

The NHL odds at all of the best online sportsbooks have the Avalanche installed as anywhere between -172 and -185 home ice favorites in Friday’s Game 5 matchup.

At first blush, it seems a bit steep considering Game 3 could have gone either way with Tampa holding a narrow 39-37 shot advantage.

NHL Pick: Avalanche (-172) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Avalanche (-172)
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NHL Pick: Over 6 (+102) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Over 6 (+102)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.