Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Props for Monday Night: Toronto Looking for Bounce-Back Win on Home Ice

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Goaltender Ilya Samsonov #35 of the Toronto Maple Leafs makes a pad save as teammate Morgan Rielly #44 looks on during the first period against the Montreal Canadiens at Centre Bell on January 21, 2023 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images/AFP

NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-120)
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The Toronto Maple Leafs suffered a loss last time out, which has been their third in their previous five games. Their opponents, the New York Islanders, have completely slipped out of the Eastern Conference playoffs since going 2-8 in the past few weeks.  

Check out what NHL picks we are looking at for tonight’s matchup between the Islanders and the Maple Leafs. 

New Yorkers can use any of these New York betting sites to place their wagers. Check them out!

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 

Monday, January 23, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena  


The New York Islanders' 2023 form has been very disappointing having picked up just 2 wins from 11 games. Although they are not completely out of the playoff race, this bad run has pretty much signed their faith as almost every team ahead of them in the table has played 1-3 games less.  

The main problem with the Islanders' recent bad form is down to their offense, which has only scored 2.94 goals per game, the 9th lowest in the league. They are also the lowest-scoring team within touching distance of a playoff spot. The Islanders have only scored 9 goals in 6 of their previous losses on the road.  

The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this home game off the back of a 3-2 loss to their rivals the Montreal Canadiens last time out, but overall the Maple Leafs are sitting pretty in second place overall in the Atlantic division.  

Toronto has been one of the better defenses in the NHL this season with the third-best goals-against record overall with 2.62 goals allowed per game. Offensively the Maple Leafs are ranked 10th overall with 3.36 per game.  

At home Toronto has been very strong in recent weeks having scored 37 goals in their previous 10 games, winning 8 of those 10 games, and keeping less than 2 goals out of their net in 50% of those ten games.  

Picks and Predictions  

Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation

The Maple Leafs are clearly the much better team between these two right now, and on home ice, they have posted the second best record in the conference. The Islanders on the road have only won 41% of their games and lost 8 of their last 10.

We believe the Maple Leafs will bounce back with a win here, the best bet being on the three-way line for the Maple Leafs to win in regulation at -120, it’s just a hunch but we feel the Islanders might be able to keep it tight tonight.  

NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs in Regulation (-120) at BetOnline

Total Over/Under  

We don’t mind laying the NHL odds of -130 here for under 6.5 goals. As we discussed the Islanders are having trouble finding the back of the net these days, and both teams have solid defenses, allowing only a combined total of 5.3 goals per game, which is one of the lowest in the entire league.  

The Maple Leafs have seen just 30% of their home games go over 6.5 goals and the previous six meetings between these two teams saw under 7 goals scored in five of those six. We are predicting a 4-1 Toronto win, if you’re feeling brave enough the under 5.5 goals line is set at +120 at the Top Rated Sportsbooks.  

Predicted Score: N.Y. Islanders 1 - Toronto Maple Leafs 4  

NHL Pick: Under 6.5 (-130) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Anytime Goalscorer  

Prior to failing to score last time out Auston Matthews had been on a four-game goalscoring streak, having scored 1/1/1/2 goals. We are more than happy to get on the Maple Leafs' top goalscorer on home ice at +100 to find the back of the net yet again tonight.  

Matthews seemed to be struggling with his form in front of the net having only scored 18 goals in 47 appearances prior to the start of the New Year where he has scored six goals in eight games. 

He seems to be back to his best and although he shot a blank last time out, there’s no reason for us to believe he won’t get his chances tonight against this Islanders team who are lacking a lot of confidence right now.  

NHL Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+100) at Heritage Sports

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Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (+100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.