Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs Betting Preview March 15: Toronto Locked and Loaded for Colorado

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Ilya Samsonov #35 of the Toronto Maple Leafs heads back to his net during the second period against the New Jersey Devils. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

Top NHL Pick: Maple Leafs ML (-135) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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The Avalanche skate into Scotiabank Arena tonight to take on the Maple Leafs in a showdown between Eastern and Western Conference powers. Let’s review the NHL odds in this contest and keep cashing our NHL picks

CO bettors interested in this NHL matchup can make all of their bets with any of the top Colorado betting sites.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Wednesday, March 15, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena

Avs Torch Habs  

After a narrow 3-2 overtime victory against the lowly Coyotes in front of the home crowd, the Avalanche hit the highway on Monday night to begin the first of a four-game road swing. Fortunately, a trip to Montreal was a good way to ease into their time away from Mile High as the Canadiens are mired in the basement of the Atlantic Division, playing out the string until their season comes to a merciful close. 

It took less than three minutes after the puck drop for the Avs to draw first blood with a score from Artturi Lehkonen who would ultimately be selected as the No. 1 Star of the Game with two goals and an assist in Colorado’s 8-4 win at the Bell Centre. The Avalanche would score two power-play goals and outshoot Montreal, 33-19, in the lopsided victory.  

The Avalanche have now won three of their last four games but those three victories came against the dregs of the league in the Sharks, Coyotes, and Canadiens with the lone loss coming against a dangerous L.A. Kings club.  

Leafs Fall to Sabres 

Toronto is jockeying to maintain second place in the Atlantic as they have no hope of catching the preternatural Boston Bruins but have to keep daylight between themselves and the Lightning, only four points away.  

But after stringing together victories over heavy hitters New Jersey (4-3) and Edmonton (7-4), the Leafs watched a two-goal lead over the Sabres melt like butter in a blast furnace as Buffalo roared back with four unanswered goals en route to a 4-3 win in hostile territory.  

Auston Matthews (31), Calle Jarnkrok (15), and William Nylander (35) lit the lamp for Toronto but it wasn’t enough to catch the Sabres on Monday night. However, putting things into perspective, the Leafs dominated Buffalo in the faceoff circle, winning 40 of 61 puck drops, and have won six of their last nine games.  

Key Stats 

Team Trends 

  • Maple Leafs are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Central. 
  • Maple Leafs are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. 
  • Maple Leafs are 16-6 in their last 22 vs. Western Conference. 
  • Maple Leafs are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. 
  • Avalanche are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. 

Total Trends 

  • Over is 2-0-2 in Maple Leafs’ last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. 
  • Over is 5-2-2 in Maple Leafs’ last 9 home games. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Avalanche’s last 4 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Avalanche’s last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. 
  • Over is 7-1 in Avalanche’s last 8 vs. Atlantic. 
  • Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these clubs. 

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: Pick and Prediction 

These clubs are built similarly and the stats reflect exactly that, but the Maple Leafs are just a little better in virtually all of the major categories. We should also note that Toronto owns one of the best home-ice records (24-7-4) in the league despite their recent setback to Buffalo in their own barn.  

Their Last Meeting

In the only meeting between these clubs this season, the Leafs dominated play and claimed a 6-2 victory in Mile High. Michael Bunting scored twice while Auston Matthews and J.T. Compher each chipped in with a goal and an assist. 

Matt Murray was solid between the pipes turning aside 26 of 28 shots and the Maple Leafs chased Colorado goalie, Alexandar Georgiev, after five goals paving the way for relief in the form of Jonas Johansson who stopped six of Toronto’s 32 combined shots. 

One last thing to note is that Colorado’s starting goalie, Alexandar Georgiev, could very well get the night off after playing in the last six consecutive games and looking a bit gassed in his most recent appearance in which he surrendered four goals on 19 shots in the 8-4 win over Montreal on Monday.  

But even if he does play, he might not be up to the task but if not then we would likely see 33-year-old journeyman backup Keith Kinkaid, who has made only two appearances this season, tend the twine for the Avs due to Colorado’s primary backup, Pavel Francouz, recovering from a lower-body injury.  

Back the Leafs

I like Toronto and the over in this game and believe it will be similar to the last time these teams met on New Year’s Eve, only this time the venue is much friendlier to the Leafs as they have been outstanding at Scotiabank Arena this season.  

Predicted Score: Maple Leafs 5 - Avalanche 3 

NHL Pick: Maple Leafs ML (-135) at Bookmaker

NHL Pick: Over 6 ½ (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.