NFL Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend continues Sunday with three more games: Dolphins vs. Bills, Giants vs. Vikings, and Ravens vs. Bengals.
With the Dolphins (Skylar Thompson) and Ravens (Tyler Huntley) starting backup quarterbacks on the road, the game to really focus on for offensive production is the middle one in Minnesota after those teams played a 27-24 thriller in Week 16.
But we have included our favorite NFL player props that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks for all three games. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Under 255.5 Passing Yards
Get your NFL picks started on a good note Sunday with a prop that is close to a lock. Josh Allen has played the Dolphins 10 times and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all 10 games. He had four scoring tosses in Week 15, and the Dolphins have the same defensive coordinator (Josh Boyer) from the Brian Flores era this year.
Allen’s yardage line (255.5) is dicey since he has gone under that number in 6-of-7 games coming in, but Miami is a team he has two 300-yard passing games against this season.
But if the Dolphins are a 2-touchdown road underdog at New York betting sites, is this really a game where Allen needs to throw so much? We’ll go with the under for his yards, but the touchdowns are a much safer pick here.
NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Is playoff time Gabriel Davis time? He had five touchdowns in two games last year, and he was not one of the six Bills to score a touchdown against Miami in two games this season.
Davis seems to play his biggest games when CBS is calling the game with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo as they will Sunday. Davis had his four touchdowns in Kansas City last postseason, 171 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh, and another 74 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City this year with CBS on the call.
Expect very good things from the Buffalo offense in this one, and Davis can hit his over and catch a touchdown with one or two catches as the deep threat for Allen. The weather should not be a factor in this one.
NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150) at Bovada
Skylar Thompson (Miami Dolphins)
- Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
- Under 191.5 Passing Yards
The interception should be a layup here with a rookie quarterback likely playing from behind on the road against a very good defense that already has 17 picks this year.
But the history of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs is a very poor one. Since 1980, they are 6-12 in their first starts, and no rookie quarterback has passed for 200 yards or two touchdowns in a playoff win since 1945.
Thompson has two games this year where he passed over 30 times and he finished with 166 and 152 yards in those games. This is going to be too big for him, so I would take the under on his yards. Miami’s best hope is running the ball and taking advantage of any Buffalo turnovers.
NFL Prop Pick: Skylar Thompson Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-245) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Skylar Thompson Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
- Over 243.5 Passing Yards
It might be a bold move to trust the quarterback who has thrown for more than 228 yards in two games this season, but Daniel Jones can carry on the New York tradition of surprisingly good playoff moments from an unheralded quarterback. We’ve seen it with Phil Simms, Jeff Hostetler, and Eli Manning.
This is Jones’ first playoff start in his fourth season, and he had his biggest passing game this season in Minnesota in Week 16 when he threw for 334 yards by completing a career-high 30 passes.
The game was uncharacteristic for Jones, but he was just taking advantage of his improving receiving corps against a terrible Minnesota pass defense. We have already seen Mac Jones (Patriots) light up the Vikings for a career-high 382 passing yards. Mike White of the Jets had 369 yards in another game. Even Chicago’s Justin Fields passed for 208 yards in Minnesota, which is like a 325-yard game for a normal quarterback.
The Vikings are 31st in passing yards allowed and 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. Nine quarterbacks have passed for over 275 yards against this defense this season.
These two teams have excelled in close games all year. Unless you think the Giants are going to blow Minnesota out at home, then the game script should either be back-and-forth, high-scoring game like Week 16, or the Giants will have to come back from a big deficit and throw a lot. There is no reason this should be an offensive dud indoors between these teams.
The Giants had a season-high 445 yards of offense in Minnesota in Week 16, and Week 17 was the first time all year they scored over 30 points in a game. The offense ended the season on a high note even if they did rest starters in Week 18.
Trust Jones to hit his over and maybe by a wide margin again.
NFL Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings)
- Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Since coming over from the Lions after a mid-season trade, Hockenson has averaged 51.9 yards per game for the Vikings. It was 55.9 yards before he caught one ball in Week 18, a game where the Vikings rested starters halfway through.
But Hockenson had his best game with the Vikings in Week 16 when he had 16 targets, 13 catches, 109 yards, and two touchdowns. Clearly, the Vikings found something they liked with that matchup.
Even if the Giants do a better job against Hockenson, it’s not much to ask him for 50 yards in this game. Otherwise, why did the Vikings make the trade?
NFL Prop Pick: T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings)
- Over 93.5 Receiving Yards
Jefferson finished the regular season with 128 catches and 1,809 receiving yards (sixth all-time) for his finest season yet. He will likely get the most MVP votes for a non-quarterback, and he should win Offensive Player of the Year.
Now we get to see him in his playoff debut. He already had a fine game against the Giants with 12 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. It was his third 100-yard game in a row, and he has been very quiet for the two games since then.
Look for that to change in this one as Jefferson makes his mark in a playoff debut. He is definitely aiming for another 100-yard game, and his 133 yards against the Giants were only his seventh most in a game this season.
You should also consider him for a touchdown score in this game as well.
NFL Prop Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 93.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Paycor Stadium
J.K. Dobbins (Baltimore Ravens)
- Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Those Baltimore touchdowns figure to be in short supply as the team has not scored more than 17 points in any of the six games since Lamar Jackson was injured. But the Baltimore offense that lost 27-16 in Cincinnati last week should look different with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, J.K. Dobbins at running back, and Mark Andrews at tight end.
None of those three players played last week, and despite four turnovers, the Bengals did allow 16 points at the end to this offense. If anyone is going to score here, Dobbins provides the best value as he is the best back when healthy for this team.
The week off should have helped him get ready for this one, and the Ravens know they are very limited in the passing game right now due to injuries. It could be Dobbins or bust for this offense in finding the end zone. Andrews has not scored since Week 6 at tight end.
Dobbins has also rushed for over 90 yards in three of his last four games since his return from injury.
NFL Prop Pick: J.K. Dobbins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210) at Bovada
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Under 269.5 Passing Yards
Joe Burrow made history in 2021 when he passed for over 400 yards against the Ravens in both meetings, the first time a quarterback had ever done that to a division rival.
But this season, Burrow has had two of his worst passing games against an improved Baltimore defense. He only finished the games with 217 and 215 passing yards as the Ravens have limited the big plays this year.
Last week, Burrow averaged a season-low 5.12 yards per pass attempt. You could say the Bengals were playing it safe with the knowledge of a likely rematch this week, but that does not explain the lack of production in Week 5 too.
Burrow was under 269.5 passing yards in three of the four playoff games last year. If the Ravens struggle to score again as they have for over a month, then this could be a game where Burrow does not even need to throw much.
Following the NFL odds, take the under as the Bengals look to get out of this one without exposing Burrow to many hits with tougher opponents to come.
NFL Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Under 269.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Trenton Irwin (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Over 5.5 Receiving Yards
A game like this calls for some deep-value picks. So, here comes the stat line of 1 catch for 5 yards like Trenton Irwin had in Tampa Bay (Week 15), but this line really does look too good to be true. If Irwin catches one ball in this game, he almost surely will hit his over. He had a pair of targets last week against the Ravens and made a 12-yard reception.
He has caught four touchdowns in the second half of the season and has looked good, getting more playing opportunities after various injuries to Ja’Marr Chase, tight end Hayden Hurst, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
But Burrow is not going to turn down the open receiver, and Irwin has even made some tough, contested catches for him. We’ll take the risk of him getting a catch and delivering in this one.
NFL Prop Pick: Trenton Irwin Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
