Wild Card Weekend Best Player Props for Saturday: Brock Purdy to Make History

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NFL Prop Pick: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
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The NFL’s wild-card playoffs kick off this Saturday with the third round of Seahawks-49ers and a rematch between the Chargers and Jaguars. These games were lopsided earlier this year, but you never know how the playoffs will change things, especially with all 4 of Saturday’s quarterbacks about to make their first postseason start in the NFL.

We have included our favorite player props that you can find at many of the best US sports betting sites. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.


Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

The history of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs is not kind, so it is not surprising that none have ever reached a Super Bowl in the last 56 seasons. Only Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens) and Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets) have won 2 playoff games as rookies, and no rookie quarterback has won a playoff game since Russell Wilson (2012 Seahawks).

But Brock Purdy is in a fantastic situation with the 49ers, who have the league’s top-ranked defense and the best average starting field position on offense, and they may only have to beat teams like the Seahawks and Vikings to get to the NFC Championship Game.

But Purdy is not just being carried along for the ride so far. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 6 straight games (5 starts) since Jimmy Garoppolo was injured against Miami. Justin Herbert is the only rookie quarterback to ever throw multiple touchdowns in 7 straight games, so Purdy can tie that streak in a more impressive fashion since it would be his first 7 major appearances and a playoff game.

You might be surprised to know that no rookie quarterback since 1950 has won a playoff game in which they either threw for 200 yards or had 2 passing touchdowns. You have to go back to Bob Waterfield in 1945 to find a playoff win with 2 touchdown passes from a rookie quarterback. Before that, 1937 rookie Sammy Baugh had 335 yards and 3 touchdown passes in the NFL Championship game that year.

This is the type of history Purdy can make if he throws for 200 yards or 2 touchdowns. He has done both things in 4 of the last 6 games, but the touchdowns are 6-for-6 for him, so we do like that better as there may be a lack of throws late if the 49ers are in control of this one as a 9.5-point favorite.

The Prop Pick

The Seahawks finished 25th in points allowed this season and Purdy has already fared well against them on a short week in Week 15 when he was dealing with an injury too.

Look for him to do well and hit the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for the first rookie quarterback win in a decade.

For San Francisco residents looking to bet on 49ers players, you can check out our top California betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105) at Bovada


Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Over 227.5 Passing Yards

The 49ers are fantastic at stopping the run and making teams one-dimensional. They also score a lot of points, forcing teams to play catch-up and throw often. They are hard to gain yards against, but the 49ers have not faced many good quarterbacks this year.

Geno Smith had a legitimate Pro Bowl season with 30 touchdowns and the highest completion percentage in the league. He is completing over 70% of his passes against the 49ers this year, but they have limited the big plays for him and held him to 5.88 yards per attempt and 13 offensive points in eight quarters.

But we like a game script of the Seahawks having to abandon the run and Geno playing catch-up in the second half. This season, Smith has gone over 227.5 passing yards in 9 games, including Week 15 against the 49ers, and his team is 3-6 in those games. Seattle is 6-2 in the games where Smith passes for under 225 yards.

The Prop Pick

Expecting a San Francisco win and a 3-0 sweep of the Seahawks, look for Smith to hit his Over in passing yards in a losing effort for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)

  • Over 4.5 Receptions

With the return of Elijah Mitchell at running back and the possibility of Deebo Samuel getting touches, it could be a game where the 49ers do not lean so heavily on Christian McCaffrey as they did in Week 15 when he had a season-high 26 carries. Save some of that for the next round.

Mitchell’s return should make you worried about CMC’s rushing yardage prop, and Mitchell even scored 2 touchdowns last week, so the touchdown prop is also not a given.

But McCaffrey had 6 catches for 30 yards in Week 15 against Seattle. That is still one of the best values he brings to the offense, and the 49ers may want to settle Purdy down with some easy throws to the back in his first playoff start. Seattle’s defense allowed the 11th most catches (92) to running backs this year, and they were only three more catches away from ranking fifth in that stat.

The Prop Pick

Therefore, McCaffrey’s Over 4.5 receptions look like a steal for your NFL picks in this matchup.

NFL Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-120) at Bovada

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, January 14, 2023 - 08:15 PM EST at TIAA Bank Stadium

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

  • Over 280.5 Passing Yards
  • Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

In his third season, Justin Herbert is making his playoff debut on the road. Herbert ranks No. 2 in NFL history with 287.5 passing yards per game. If you look at the quarterbacks around him at the top of that list, you see plenty of quarterbacks known for being one-man shows in their careers, including Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.

Herbert also ranks No. 1 in NFL history with 40.1 pass attempts per game. Quarterbacks like him are expected to carry the offense, especially in big playoff games even if it means they are usually playing a better team. Herbert looks to be no different here as despite being favored, the Jaguars are statistically better in most areas, are playing at home, and they already beat the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3.

In that game, Herbert passed 45 times for 297 yards. He also had 347 yards on 43 attempts when he played Jacksonville in 2020 as a rookie. But in Week 3, Herbert did not have any help as the Chargers rushed for a season-low 26 yards. This was despite Herbert playing with a rib injury suffered in the previous game.

Herbert also did not have Keenan Allen, his No. 1 receiver, against Jacksonville. Allen is back now and has been playing very well. He may not have Mike Williams this week, his No. 2 receiver and best deep threat. But that is fine as he has gotten used to playing without a full complement of weapons this year, and the lack of big plays could help him rack up more attempts.

It just does not seem likely that the Chargers are going to turn into a dominant running team overnight for the playoffs. The Jaguars have been vulnerable to teams moving the ball, and their defense only ranks No. 24 in yards per drive allowed. Even Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs looked solid as a passer until he coughed up the ball on a fumble in the fourth quarter.

The Prop Pick

Following the NFL odds, look for Herbert to get the volume you’d expect from him in this game and hit those passing overs.

NFL Prop Pick: Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Bovada

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Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-117)
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NFL Prop Pick: Justin Herbert Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-130) at Bovada

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Justin Herbert Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-130)
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Austin Ekeler (Los Angeles Chargers)

  • Under 51.5 Rushing Yards
  • Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
  • Over 4.5 Receptions

In keeping with our theme of Herbert throwing like a madman in this game, we are fading Austin Ekeler as a runner and going all in on him as a receiver, especially if Williams is out.

  • Ekeler had a season-low 4 carries for 5 yards in Week 3 vs. Jaguars.
  • Ekeler has only broken 50 yards rushing in 6-of-17 games this season.
  • Ekeler had 8catches against Jacksonville, one of 10 games where he has gone Over 4.5 receptions this season.
  • Ekeler had 48 receiving yards against Jacksonville, one of 12 games where he had Over 35.5 receiving yards this season.

The Jaguars allowed 107 catches and 815 yards to receiving backs this year, both marks are the second-highest in the league. This will be a good receiving game for Ekeler.

NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Austin Ekeler Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Austin Ekeler Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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NFL Prop Pick: Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions (-160) at Bovada

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Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions (-160)
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Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars)

  • Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

We made fun of the Christian Kirk signing in free agency, but he delivered with 1,108 yards and 8 touchdowns, looking the part of a No. 1 wide receiver. Kirk also was great in the AFC South-clinching game last week with 6 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown.

Kirk had 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 against the Chargers. He has gone over 57.5 yards in 10-of-17 games this season, and he should be counted on to do well in this matchup when the Jaguars are going to need points to deal with Herbert.

Kirk found a way to put up 51 receiving yards in his lone playoff game last year with Arizona despite Kyler Murray playing terrible football against the Rams.

The Prop Pick

Trust Kirk to play well for Trevor Lawrence in this game and hit his over.

For Jacksonville residents looking to bet on Jaguars players, you can do it at our top Florida betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Christian Kirk Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Christian Kirk Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers)

  • Over 76.5 Receiving Yards

Even if Mike Williams plays in this game, how good could he be without practice and back spasms? I would hammer the Over on Allen in this matchup. He has played very well against Jacksonville in his career with 91.6 yards per game in 5 meetings, and they didn’t have to face him in Week 3 when he was injured.

Since coming back in Week 11, Allen has averaged 84.4 yards per game, a great number for the 30-year-old receiver.

The Jaguars have allowed 11 games of over 76.5 receiving yards this year, including big games for No. 1 wide receivers like Davante Adams (146), Michael Pittman (134), CeeDee Lamb (126), Amon-Ra St. Brown (114), and A.J. Brown (95).

The Prop Pick

Trust Allen to hit the Over in this game.

NFL Prop Pick: Keenan Allen Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Keenan Allen Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.