Week 9 NFL Best Bets – Dogs Gonna Howl This Sunday

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The Minnesota Vikings celebrate a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals. Adam Bettcher/Getty Images/AFP.

Swinging Johnson is up over 16 units for those who have been following his NFL best bets week after week and he sees plenty of underdogs cashing this week.

Let’s see if Swinger can get that elusive sweep as he reviews the NFL odds and tries to fatten our bankrolls with his Week 9 NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 16-10 ATS/ML (+16.59 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

How Did We Do in Week 8?

Let’s get the bad news right out of the way. I overestimated the Raiders and vastly underestimated the Saints which cost me 3 units. It was a 24-0 debacle for the Sin City Sinners and the only positive is that it was a complete swing and a miss as opposed to a brutal bad beat, of which I’ve had my fair share this year.

And to make matters worse I tossed 1 unit on over 49.5 (-108) which only compounded my misery. So that was a 4-unit fiasco but there was a silver lining, actually two of them.

We mitigated our losses with ATS covers on the Eagles -10.5 over the Steelers for 2 units and the 49ers -1 over the Rams for 2 units. Both picks paid off and we wound up losing only 0.38 units in Week 8.

We’re still clicking at over 61% and are up over 16 units on the season, so let’s accentuate the positive and look to improve in Week 9. You with me? Let’s go!

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

I love the twin terrors that the Dolphins boast week after week. How many teams can count one elite receiver on their roster, let alone two? Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make it fun to watch the Fish and Waddle’s penguin dance when he takes it to the house is undeniably the best touchdown celebration ever. Yeah, ever.

But this is a team that can be fatal to your bankroll. Sure, they can keep you glued to your television just waiting for a game breaker but they’ve got issues. Just ask anyone who has backed them over the past 5 weeks.

Miami has gone 1-4 ATS over that span with their only win coming last week when they needed a Lazarus-like awakening to overcome their 14-point deficit to the Detroit Lions and barely covered as 3.5-point favorites in a 31-27 decision. Yeah, the Lions, are not even a middling team like the Patriots.

And on Sunday they will face the Bears in Chicago where we see the oddsmakers are giving Justin Fields and company a 5-point head start. Well, the Bears are starting to learn to score and this looks like an opportune time to give them a chance. Chicago defeated New England two weeks ago, 33-14, and rung up 29 points on the Cowboys last week.

Best Bet and Prediction

Miami’s secondary has been hit with the injury bug which means Justin Fields should be able to choose his targets at his leisure. And when he can’t find them, he will make the Dolphins' defenders pay by wheeling around the edge and moving the chains with his feet. Oh, and by the way, Chicago owns the top rushing attack in the league, averaging 188.4 yards per game.

Speaking of stats, we should also note that the Bears are ranked 5th against the pass and will give Tua plenty of issues in the backfield.

This won’t be a big play on the Bears because, after all, they are the Bears but the public has inflated this line to a point where we have to take a bite of the home dog here.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 - Bears 21

NFL Pick: Bears +5 (-108) for 2 Units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Bears +5 (-108)
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField

The Vikings picked up a nice asset in T.J. Hockenson this week and when Irv Smith Jr. returns from his injury, they will make a stellar twin tight end set. But Smith won’t play in this game and it’s unlikely Hockenson will be up to speed on the Vikings' playbook.

I extolled the virtues of Miami’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle; therefore, I feel it’s only natural to point out the sublime talents of Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Give me one receiver to start my team, and I’m going with Justin Jefferson. He’s that good!

Best Bet and Prediction

Okay, so then why am I taking the points with the Commanders? Well, this kid Taylor Heinicke is no backup. He’s a solid quarterback who’s finally getting a full-blown chance at being the man under center and he’s been much better than expected.

Oh, and speaking of top-tier receivers, Terry McLaurin can be among the best when used properly and he’s forming some serious chemistry with Heinicke.

Washington has won and covered their last 3 and their defense is getting better by the week. It would be huge to have Chase Young back for this game and there is an outside shot of that happening. But whether he does or not, expect Kirk Cousins to have plenty of company in the backfield on Sunday.

The Vikings have gotten very lucky this year and eventually, that luck will run out. I say it happens this Sunday.

Predicted Score: Vikings 21 - Commanders 20

NFL Pick: Commanders +3.5 (-115) for 4 Units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Commanders +3.5 (-115)
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Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium

Two weeks ago, I made the Bengals my first 5-unit maximum play of the season and they did not disappoint. They brought home the cash with a 35-17 win over the Falcons and easily covered as 6-point home chalk. But last week was quite the opposite as they failed miserably against their divisional rivals, the Cleveland Browns, in a 32-13 loss as 3-point road favorites.

Let’s not forget, that loss came on a Monday night so the Bengals are working on a short week. They may also be taking this one lightly as they look ahead to their next game, a date with the Steelers in Pittsburgh, where they will be licking their chops to atone for their 23-20 overtime loss in their season debut.

The absence of Ja'Marr Chase throws a monkey wrench into this Cincinnati offense. Despite having Joe Mixon running the rock, this offensive line was not meant to run block as evidenced by the Bengals’ 30th-ranked rushing attack – which in all honesty resembles more of a mild affront than an attack.

We should lastly point out that the Bengals have suffered several injuries on the defensive side of the ball which will only bolster Carolina’s chances of hanging within the margins.

Best Bet and Prediction

The squares are going to bet Cincinnati hand over fist, but we say let them because fading the public is never a bad idea.

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 - Panthers 23

NFL Pick: Panthers +7.5 (-108) for 3 Units at Heritage Sports

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Panthers +7.5 (-108)
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The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 4-4, -0.40 units

The Woodman went looking for the dough by dropping a few bucks on the Bears as 9.5-point road dogs in Dallas last week. I stated at the time I wasn’t a fan of the pick, but wasn’t sold enough on Dak Prescott’s recovery to bet on the Boyz. Ultimately, Dallas won a 49-29 shootout and the Woodman went down in smoke.

But whenever a gunslinger like the Woodman is down, well sometimes he stays there because his knees are bad, but in this case, he has mustered the intestinal fortitude to spot a live dog lookin’ for love and he says he found it in the Tennessee Titans as they travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

If you still have a farm after last week’s money burner, then Woodman advises you to bet it on the Titans!

Woodman's Pick: Titans +13 (-120) at Bovada

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Titans +13 (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.