Swinging Johnson slammed home his first 5-unit max play of the season last week with the Bengals over the Falcons. Let’s see what Swinger has in store for us in Week 8 as he reviews the NFL odds and goes for a sweep in his NFL picks!
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 14-8 ATS/ML (+16.97 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
How Did We Do in Week 7?
If you take a peek back at last week’s column you will see I not only bet the Bengals for my first 5-unit max play of the season but my score prediction was Bengals 34 – Falcons 20. For those who watched the game or tailed me on this max bet, then you know the actual final score was Bengals 35 – Falcons 17. Yeah, I had this game down cold and I knew it.
But before I get too full of myself, I must acknowledge that last week was my first losing week of the season. The other two plays were for 3 units apiece and it was a miracle we didn’t cover with the Lions +7.5.
I won’t rant because the only one interested in hearing a bad-beat story is the one telling the tale. Therefore, I will spare you the details but let me just mention the score was Dallas 10 – Detroit 6 with under 3 minutes remaining in the game. Final score, you ask? Dallas 24 – Detroit 6. Bah-ru-tal.
I can’t even think about my other pick because it’s the 2nd week in a row I went to this poison well and wound up sick. I bet the Slackers for 3 units against the Commanders and now I need a bucket just writing those words.
Overall, we dropped just 1.84 units on a 1-2 afternoon. Let’s get back on the saddle and get the sweep that has eluded us thus far.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
The Raiders are quietly putting it together. Yes, they’re 2-4 straight up (3-3 ATS) and mired in the muck of the AFC West. However, they have yet to lose a game this season by more than 6 points and the game they did lose by a touchdown, sans the extra point, was in overtime against the Cardinals.
Their 2-4 record is misleading. They have played tough over their last 3 games, winning and covering against the Broncos and Texans while falling agonizingly short to the Chiefs in a 30-29 loss but easily covering as 7-point road dogs. Josh Jacobs is having a breakout season and seems to be getting better every week.
Best Bet and Prediction
Riddle me this. Which team is ranked 31st in points allowed and which team is ranked 3rd in points scored? The answer is the New Orleans Saints, allowing 28.6 PPG, and the Las Vegas Raiders, scoring 27.2 points per game.
Andy Dalton will be starting for the Saints and he will get his share of points because the Raiders’ defense is nothing to write home about. However, when I think about what Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams will do to this defense it’s downright criminal.
And what if tight-end extraordinaire, Darren Waller, returns for this one? Well, if that’s the case, this one will turn out worse than a snuff film, so close your eyes kids. I’m putting a unit on Over on this one as well.
Predicted Score: Raiders 37 - Saints 27
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 30, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
Every year some teams are overhyped and we learn too late that they were paper tigers all along, but such is not the case with the Eagles. Sure, they will lose a game they’re not supposed to because it’s the NFL and things happen, but I like them in this spot and I’ll tell you why.
Philadelphia has covered 4 of their last 5 games and is a perfect 6-0 entering this matchup against Pittsburgh. And because the Eagles are suddenly the flavor of the month, the public will be pounding them which is why they are 10.5 point home chalk over their intrastate rivals.
This line opened at Philadelphia -10 and it’s jumped a hook to 10.5, a number that could prove to be fatal. As an aside, don’t you think the sharps would have taken a piece of Steelers +10.5 if this number was so out of whack? They’ve stayed away, at least until this point, because although it’s clearly an inflated line, it’s still not high enough to induce the wise guys to send it in on the dog.
Best Bet and Prediction
And while I am not fond of laying that hook, I don’t think we will have to worry about it unless the Eagles move out to a big lead and grow disinterested down the stretch, allowing a backdoor cover.
The Eagles own one of the best defenses in the league ranked 1st in takeaways, 5th ranked pass defense, 4th ranked run defense, and 4th in points, averaging 17.5 PPG. I ask you, how is Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, and his 31st-ranked scoring offense, going to deal with the mass of humanity coming his way play after play after play? Answer: He won’t, he’ll cry, and we’ll cover.
Predicted Score: Eagles 31 - Steelers 13
NFL Pick: Eagles -10.5 (-107) for 2 units at BetOnline
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 30, 2022 - 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
The 49ers will try to break their 2-game skid with a win over their conference rivals and defending Super Bowl champs. That sounds weird, right? The Rams defending Super Bowl champs really?
The absence of Von Miller has hurt this once-feared LA defense and I don’t think Matthew Stafford’s elbow is fully healed. Actually, I’m sure of it, yet he continues to play because he’s a gamer and a veteran who doesn’t want to let his team down.
Best Bet and Prediction
Ah, but getting back to the Niners. They have defeated the Rams in 7 of their last 8 meetings and have covered the number in 6 straight games including their 24-9 victory over LA at home. I don’t see this contest being much different, especially now that the newly acquired Christian McCaffrey has had more time to learn the San Francisco playbook.
This game is just about a coin flip at all of the best sportsbooks but I’m shooting two units at the boys from the bay.
Predicted Score: 49ers 23 - Rams 17
The Woodman's Corner
- Woodman's 2022 NFL Record: 4-3, +0.70 units
The Texans did the Woodman dirty last week as they dropped a 38-20 decision to the Raiders and failed to cover as 7-point road pups. And although you might believe the Woodman would consider a walk on the square side this week by betting a big chalky favorite with Joe Q. Public and all his square friends, then you would be wrong.
Alas, the Woodman is a sucker for dogs and never saw points he didn’t like, especially those “sittin’ way up high”, h/t Bob Seger. This week it’s the Chicago Bears +9.5 as they enter Jerry’s World to take on the Cowboys.
I can’t say I love this pick as I feel like a regression to the mean is for Justin Fields and Company but I don’t trust that Dak Prescott’s injury is sufficiently healed to lay all of these points. This game is a pass for me but if you believe in the Woodman then do what he says and, “BET THE FARM!”
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.