Swinging Johnson has made money in each of his six NFL Best Bets columns, aka Swinger’s Picks, this season and he says there’s nothin’ sweeter than a repeater! Let’s see if Swinger can keep the money train rolling in Week 7 as he checks out the NFL odds and goes for the sweep in his NFL picks!
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 13-6 ATS/ML (+18.81 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
How Did We Do in Week 6?
After writing my article last week, I looked at my picks and realized I had turned into the square I so often mock. What made it even worse was last week’s headline – We Don’t Lose!
All 3 of my picks were favorites, big favorites as a matter of fact, and when the Packers failed to show up and lost by 14 points as seven-point home chalk to a playoff-caliber team masquerading as the New York Jets, I felt like a dupe. You know what I’m talking about.
You walk into a pool hall, thinking you’re the schizzle because you used to win a few bucks from the local college kids who would stop in, have a few brews, and shoot for a few bucks. You start talking up your game and the guy with the black fedora hat and the toothpick in his mouth nods his head like he’s listening to the sage on the mountaintop… or Minnesota Fats at the end of the bar.
Now comes the neck roll, the knuckle cracking, or whatever other gesticulations accompany a fraud trying to look the part. Well, the Fedora Man looks impressed, but he isn’t. He beats you, just barely, so maybe you go another round for double your money. It never ends well.
However, this story has a happy ending, unlike my massages. We roared back for 4 units on the Rams and watched the Eagles cover the number against the Cowboys for 3 units.
We won money for the day despite a filthy, nasty pick with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
After pocketing 2.68 units last week in Squaresville, we have now won 6 straight weeks and are clicking at over 68% on our *NFL Best Bets. We have nearly 19 units of the man’s money in our war chest but have yet to have a sweep this season. Let’s put an end to that nonsense, shall we?
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
Dak Prescott is returning from injury and the squares are licking their chops, betting the Boyz hand-over-fist. But do you know who is also returning from an injury? Detroit’s D’Andre Swift, that’s who. And top Lions’ receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, will be much closer to 100% after playing through a high ankle sprain in the team’s 29-0 loss to the Patriots.
The public has a collective short-term memory which means they have a mental snapshot of the Lions getting shut out the last time they took the field. But we should understand a few things as they prepare to battle the Boyz in Jerry’s World.
Best Bet and Prediction
- The Lions are well-rested coming off of their bye week.
- D’Andre Swift will give Detroit’s rushing attack an immediate boost after being on the shelf since Week 3 with a shoulder injury.
- The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, ranked 19th and allowing 120.7 yards per game.
- Dak Prescott is not a bonus for Dallas. He is being rushed back, he will be rusty, and he’s definitely not completely healthy.
- This game will feature ground attacks from both sides and will be played between the 20s. This is good for chewing up the clock and favorable to big underdogs for obvious reasons.
Predicted Score: Cowboys 26 – Lions 21
Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium
The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread and to that, I say Hallelujah! Of course, the reason is Joe Q. Public believes if a team covers 6 times it will cover a 7th because oddsmakers never adjust to the public perception of a team, do they?
Best Bet and Prediction
The Falcons treat opposition quarterbacks like a sunburn, they don’t want to apply any pressure. And that’s statistically accurate as Atlanta ranks 31st against the pass and owns the No. 32 defensive pressure rate in the league. That’s dead last for those who have difficulty with numbers.
The biggest issue with the Bengals this season is that the offensive line they thought they upgraded in the offseason has actually declined. But if there’s no pressure then there’s no problem. Good luck to the Falcons’ secondary trying to cover the talented triumvirate of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd with Joe Mixon used as an outlet receiver.
This looks like a blowout waiting to happen which is why this is my first MAX PLAY of the year!
Predicted Score: Bengals 34 – Falcons 20
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField
I know what you’re thinking. I suffered an embarrassing 4-unit loss with the Packers and now I’m chasing my tail trying to get the money back. It’s a reasonable argument but one I have tried to avoid. If you think about it, most people would want to fade the team that crushed them the week before. But not me, I’m weird.
Best Bet and Prediction
Since Matt LaFleur took over in Green Bay his teams have covered 10 of 11 games after a loss. Aaron Rodgers has to be mortified after last week’s loss to the Jets and stated as much in the postgame presser.
The fact is that this Packers’ iteration is not what we’ve come to expect in the Aaron Rodgers era but they are playing an abysmal team working with a backup quarterback as Carson Wentz is out with a finger injury. I originally thought he was sidelined with an illness as the fans are getting sick of him.
I question the Packers’ offense as it hasn’t been the same since they wheeled Davante Adams to Sin City for draft picks in the offseason. However, Washington’s offense is a mess and their defense isn’t much better.
How is a backup, presumably Taylor Heinicke, going to do against Green Bay’s No. 1 pass defense, allowing 164 yards per game? Add to that, a very angry Aaron Rodgers who will be working overtime to make this a big road win.
Below are some trends, consider it a shot of courage to bet on the Pack.
- Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 7.
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Commanders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Predicted Score: Packers 27 – Commanders 17
The Woodman’s Corner
- Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 4-2, +1.80 units
The Woodman took a stand last week by backing the Carolina Panthers +10 despite the fact that I was heavily invested on the other side, the LA Rams, for 4 units. You know what they say, if you take a shot at the king, you better not miss. Unfortunately for Woodman’s acolytes, the Carolina Cats dropped a 24-10 decision to the Rams but alas, there was joy in Swingerville (sounds like a hall pass for couples).
However, now it’s time for the Woodman to get back on the winning track as my man doesn’t stay down very long. This week he’s on another underdog, the Houston Texans, as they prepare to do battle with the Raiders in Sin City. He says a touchdown head start is all he needs to cash a ticket and he just might be right.
Woodman's Pick: Texans +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.