Week 6 NFL Best Bets – We Don’t Lose!

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Swinging Johnson has yet to endure a losing week this season and is up over 16 units on the season. Let’s find out what Swinger has in store for Week 6 as he checks out the NFL odds and goes for the sweep in his NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 11-5 ATS/ML (+16.13 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

Welcome back to another week with your old buddy, Swinger. I appreciate the Twitter support and if you don’t follow me, then climb aboard. You will be the first to read this weekly NFL Best Bets column, aka Swinger’s Picks, where I use a 1-to-5-unit grading system and keep a crystal-clear record of my three top NFL picks right here at Bookmakers Review.

If you ever find an error, please hit me up @SwingeratBMR and I will personally look into it.

How Did We Do in Week 5?

Okay, so we’re firing at over 68% on our weekly NFL selections and a $100 bettor is up over $1600 just by blindly tailing me. You will also find that the handicapping sensation I bring along for the ride each and every year, The Woodman, is 4-1 against the number with his weekly top NFL selection and you can find him at the bottom of every Swinger’s Picks article, including this one!

Last week, we cashed with the Saints -5 ½ over the Seahawks for 4 units and the Bengals +3 over the Ravens, also for 4 units. Our lone loser was on the Carolina Cats +7 who not only lost 3 units of our money but their head coach as well after their Week 5 setback to the 49ers.

Alright, it’s time to take a peek at what Week 6 has in store for us so let’s bet, drink, and be all kinds of merry because bustin’ the books and grabbin’ their dough is fun, right?!

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field

The Jets squished the Fish last week to the tune of a 40-17 victory and suddenly Gang Green evokes images of tough guys with a penchant for wearing sage as opposed to the decomposition of body tissue, which before this year was a perfect metaphor for this decaying franchise.

Okay, that first paragraph was a bit much, especially because you’re here to determine whether or not my analysis passes your sniff test enough to warrant a wager, not to be regaled with linguistic gymnastics.

But I point out the suddenly surging Jets and their young first-round quarterback leading the charge because it’s reflective of the public’s mindset. And perception becomes reality as it manifests in the lines you see hanging each week at the best sportsbooks.

Remember, oddsmakers don’t set lines based on what they think will happen, they set lines based on what they believe the betting public believes will happen.

Best Bet and Prediction

And because there is public sentiment for the Jets and a backlash against the Packers for their stunning 27-22 loss to the Giants, we now have a favorable line on the home chalk here. The Jets are ranked No. 9 in passing yards only because they had the human machine gun, Joe Flacco, spraying passes every chance he got.

But now the Jets have Zach Wilson who passed a total of 21 times, completing 14, and zero touchdowns last week against Miami. New York will rely on the run because the Packers are ranked 2nd against the pass but running the ball will only go so far when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense begins surgically dissecting the Jets' defense.

Look, I know the Packers’ receiving corps is not what it once was. Hell, maybe Aaron Rodgers is no longer what he once was, but the Jets are not nearly as good as they looked last week nor are the Packers as bad as they appeared in their loss to the Giants.

Let’s exploit the public’s mentality and back the home chalk in this one.

Predicted Score: Packers 34 – Jets 24

NFL Pick: Packers -7 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Packers -7 (-108)
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Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, October 16, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

I lost three units on the Panthers last week but I’m not fading them because of it, I am actually betting on the Rams because they are a better team than they’ve shown while the Panthers are quite brutal. Like the Jets/Packers game above, much of that rationale applies here as well.

Best Bet and Prediction

Although the Rams' offense hasn’t been booming recently, I have to believe they will get well with the ultimate elixir, the Carolina defense. And while the Panthers are lousy on that side of the ball, get a load of their offense, which quite frankly, is quite offensive. Carolina is ranked 27th in rushing, 28th in passing, and dead last in total yards gained.

And to add insult to injury, they have PJ Walker in the pocket, a 5’11’ undrafted Temple product who has a grand total of 10 games, 2 touchdown passes, and 8 interceptions on his limited resume. He will be starting for the injured Baker Mayfield and I say good luck dealing with the likes of Aaron Donald coming to take your lunch money.

Lay it and like it with the Rams.

Predicted Score: Rams 27 – Panthers 13

NFL Pick: Rams -10 (-125) for 4 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Rams -10 (-125)
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, October 16, 2022 - 08:20 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field

Apparently, the Swinger’s Picks theme this week is Bet Like a Square with your host, Chalky Von Chalkowitz. Yes, I am making the Eagles my third straight pick in which I am heartily backing the favorite.

And like the familiar refrain you have already read about, we have one team that looked good the previous week like Dallas did in their 22-10 win over the Rams, while the other was not all that impressive as Philadelphia defeated the Cardinals, 20-17, but failed to cover the 5.5 point impost.

Best Bet and Prediction

Despite the Cooper “Gold” Rush mania running rampant after the Boyz won four straight, they haven’t scored much and have had a fortuitous early schedule against teams that weren’t in a position to do well the week they played Dallas.

The Cowboys' offense is 15th in rushing yardage, 27th in passing yardage, and 27th in total yards and they will be facing an Eagles' defense that has the chops to shut any team down as they are ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed, 5th against the pass, and 4th in total yards.

Jalen Hurts will guide this Eagles team to victory because he has the wheels to do it and the Dallas's linebackers won’t be able to catch him if he decides to take a spin on the outside when no targets are available. Let’s back another favorite and watch the Eagles soar.

Predicted Score: Eagles 23 – Cowboys 13

NFL Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Eagles -6 (-110)
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The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 4-1, +2.90 units

How ‘bout them Cowboys?! The Woodman was on the Cooper “Gold” Rush bandwagon again last week as he took Dallas on the road +4.5 over the reigning Super Bowl champion LA Rams. And you know what? Not only did the Boyz cover, but they defeated the Rams outright by a score of 22-10. Talk about easy money?!

This week my man is backing another road dog against the Rams with the Panthers, plus a boatload in La La. Is this an endorsement of Carolina or a big-time fade of the Rams? Well, as you may know, I am on the other side of this game which is a rarity as the Woodman and I often see things the same way. But every now and again he’s wrong, so forgive him, won’t you?

Woodman's Pick: Panthers +10.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Panthers +10.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.