Swinging Johnson has yet to endure a losing week this season and went 2-1 against the spread last Sunday, adding nearly three units to his ever-expanding bankroll. Let’s find out what Swinger has in store for Week 5 as he peruses the NFL odds and goes for the sweep in his NFL picks!
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 9-4 ATS/ML (+11.73 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Most of the handicappers you read will write about the coming week as though it’s Christmas morning and every present under the tree will reveal gold and silver. Never is there any talk about the possibility that there could be coal in a stocking or two. That’s just not how it works. Every bet is for the max, a stone-cold lock, and it would be preposterous to believe otherwise.
However, here at Swinger’s Picks, we’re different, we’re weird, and my world is full of trepidation because I’ve been around long enough to know bad weeks happen, which is why my max unit plays come around about as often as a Kardashian at a Mensa convention.
What Happened on Week 4?
Last week is an example of how carefully I tiptoe through the landmines that can blow up an entire season of hard work by manufacturing enthusiasm on a given Sunday slate of NFL games when there is little to be enthused about.
You might think we lost last week based on what sounds like a carefully crafted attempt at deflecting responsibility for a losing week. However, that’s not the case as we cashed two of our three picks, but our unit size was just two units apiece, while the lone money-burner was for one unit.
Two live underdogs in the Titans (+3 ½) and Seahawks (+4 ½) that not only covered but won their respective games outright. I’ll take a win any day of the week and although they weren’t huge plays, it fits our betting profile, which is to take it slow, keep cool, and make money.
Let’s keep bustin’ the books with three more of our NFL picks in Week 5!
Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Emotion and flag-waving are the province of fans, not bettors, which is why team loyalty is a detriment rather than an asset. And to underscore that, I am betting against the Seahawks this week, whereas last week I bet on them.
Seattle’s matchup against a lackluster Detroit defense was ideal in Week 4, especially because they were getting three points to start. However, the Saints' defense will prove much more troublesome, and I don’t expect Geno Smith to look like the second coming of Gino Cappelletti as he did against the Lions.
Conversely, Jameis Winston –or Andy Dalton, if he can’t go– will be shooting fish in a barrel against the Seahawks’ secondary, much like Jared Goff did last week by throwing four touchdown passes in defeat. And think about what Alvin Kamara will do if he’s healthy!
Best Bet and Prediction
The public has a collective short-term memory, which is why many of them will relish betting on an underdog for once in their lives.
The best thing that could have happened was a Seahawks win and a Saints loss last week, because instead of laying 7½ had their roles been reversed, we’re getting New Orleans as low as -5½ over at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review).
Lay it, like it, and cash it with the Saints.
Predicted Score: Saints 31 – Seahawks 20
NFL Pick: Saints -5 ½ (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
There are some teams that are a tough out even if they can’t score. That sounds counterintuitive, especially in a pass-happy league like the NFL, but it makes sense when talking about the 49ers this season.
Just think about San Francisco’s offensive production this season. They scored 10 points against Chicago, a season-high 27 against an atrocious Seahawks’ defense, 10 points against Denver, and 24 last week against the Rams, though seven of those 24 points came via a pick-six. The Niners’ defense will be the reason they make it to the playoffs but their offense will be the reason they get bounced.
Best Bet and Prediction
And with all of that, the oddsmakers want to give us a touchdown head start with a team that is scoring nearly two more points per game, whose defense is ranked a respectable 13th in the league, and has the home-field advantage. Let’s not overthink it, let’s just bet it.
Predicted Score: 49ers 20 – Panthers 16
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 08:20 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
The Bengals have had 10 days to prepare for this one after defeating the Dolphins, 27-15, last Thursday night. And that’s an important factor, especially when we consider the Ravens’ meltdown last week in watching a 20-3 lead disappear like butter in a blast furnace to the Buffalo Bills, which eventually resulted in a 23-20 Baltimore loss.
Baltimore’s head coach, John Harbaugh, made a huge coaching blunder in eschewing the go-ahead field goal for a touchdown attempt. It cost him then, and it will cost him in this game as well because, while I’m not big on emotion playing a part in my handicapping process, this will be a letdown spot for Baltimore after the way the game ended last week.
Lastly, how big will Joe Burrow’s passing numbers be, considering he has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against Baltimore’s 32nd-ranked passing defense, allowing an average of 315.3 yards per game?!
Best Bet and Prediction
I’m loving the fact we’re getting +3 here because I think Cincinnati wins this game outright. But we’ll take the points just in case it’s close.
Predicted Score: Bengals 31 – Ravens 27
The Woodman’s Corner
- Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 3-1, +1.90 units
The Woodman had no doubts that the Patriots, sans Mac Jones, were the ticket to his financial freedom last week getting 10½ points against Green Bay on the hallowed grounds of Lambeau Field.
And Despite Bill Belichick’s boys being down to their third-string rookie quarterback, Bailey Zappe, they took the Packers to overtime where they ultimately bowed, 27-24, but covered the number with ease.
This week he’s on the Cooper Rush bandwagon, who is a perfect 3-0 since taking the reins from the injured Dak Prescott, with Dallas as the underdog in all three games.
He believes the streak shall live while Canton is burnishing up the bust of the future Hall of Famer!
Woodman's Pick: Cowboys +4½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.