Week 4 NFL Best Bets – We Got This!

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Swinging Johnson went 2-1 against the spread last Sunday and picked up four units on his best bet of the week when the Eagles dominated the Commanders.

Let’s find out what Swinger has in store for Week 4 as he goes for the sweep in his NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 7-3 ATS/ML (+8.80 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

How’d We Do in Week 3?

Last week was a good one as we clicked for three units on the Bengals and connected on our best bet, the Philadelphia Eagles, as they murked the Commanders like we knew they would. Our only loss, the Raiders, set us back three units as they made a valiant comeback but ultimately came up short in a 24-22 loss to the Titans.

So, we came away 3.7 units to the good and are now sitting pretty with nearly nine units in our pockets for the season.

After checking out the NFL odds on this week’s Sunday slate I feel pretty good about our prospects to keep this money train chuggin’ along.

So, with that, it’s time to go bookie hunting, won’t you join me?

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium

Here we have divisional rivals that have underwhelmed in the early going but are both coming off of victories last week. I was pretty big on the Colts entering this season, while fairly pessimistic about the Titans.

However, in a twist of irony, I like the Titans in this matchup for a few reasons. First, Tennessee looked sharp against the Raiders last week until they became almost disinterested in the second half. I am quite sure the Titans will be up for this divisional tilt more than they were for Las Vegas and they understand, as do the Colts, how critical this game is even though the season is young. In short, their interest won’t wane one iota.

Second, the Colts are coming off of a huge upset against the Chiefs. It was a game in which the moon and the stars aligned, allowing Indy to secure the victory. They made plenty of mistakes that would have ordinarily cost them, especially against a team like Kansas City, but karma was on their side.

I don’t see that happening for them in consecutive weeks and am also expecting an Indianapolis letdown after such a seismic victory, despite this being a divisional matchup.

Best Bet and Prediction

The bottom line is that the Colts will move the chains on the ground, as Jonathan Taylor will eat up the Titans’ 29th-ranked run-stop unit, while the Titans should be able to throw at will. I suspect Derrick Henry will be utilized as an outlet receiver more than a smash-mouth runner due to Indianapolis being stout against the run but susceptible through the air.

The Titans have also won four out of the last five meetings between these teams.

In a game featuring a team leaning heavily on the run versus another relying mostly on the pass, I’ll choose the latter. But this should be a close one, nonetheless.

Predicted Score: Colts 20 – Titans 17

NFL Pick: Titans +3½ (-113) for 2 Units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Titans +3½ (-113)
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, October 02, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium

The Chargers were a banged-up mess last week and Justin Herbert was part of the walking wounded. It took an enormous toll on their performance as the Bolts were blasted by the Jaguars, 38-10, and were without center Corey Linsley, wideout Keenan Allen and cornerback JC Jackson. Offensive tackle Rashawn Slater and linebacker Joey Bosa came in healthy but left the game injured.

The Texans are at least competitive this season despite their 0-2-1 record and are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Bears, pushing as three-point road pups.

Houston is better in all facets of the game this season, which isn’t saying much, as the bar they set last year was so low it was seen rolling around the pavement outside NRG Stadium. But what the Texans do better than most is defend the pass, currently ranked 11th in that category, allowing 207 yards per game.

Best Bet and Prediction

So, here’s the deal. If the Chargers all miraculously return healthy then we’re not getting nearly enough points with the Texans, but LA had so many key pieces battered and bruised that some will still be sidelined, while those who will return won’t be at 100%.

Let’s grab the points for a small play on home hound here.

Predicted Score: Chargers 24 – Texans 20

NFL Pick: Texans +5 (-107) for 1 unit at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Texans +5 (-107)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, October 02, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Forget about Russia going nuclear on Ukraine, if you want a truly tangible sign of the apocalypse then consider the Detroit Lions are laying 4 ½ points to, well, anyone! But the team suffering the mother of all insults is the Seattle Seahawks, and while I understand the Hawks are not a good team, what I can’t wrap my mind around is that Detroit is ailing, yet still laying above two key numbers (3 & 4).

Seattle has won and covered their last three meetings against the Lions and although it would take a mild upset to see them continue that streak, I don’t believe it is outside the realm of possibility. Geno Smith has been stunningly accurate, connecting on over 77% of his passes, and defending the pass is the Lion’s Achilles heel.

I see this being a game played between the 20s because running back D'Andre Swift will miss this one, and the same could apply to Jared Goff’s top target, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. And then we must consider that another receiver, Josh Reynolds is far from healthy, as is starting left guard Jonah Jackson.

Best Bet and Prediction

There are simply too many injuries on the Lions' side of the ball for them to be giving any team a 4 ½ point head start.

And by the way, this line opened at 6½ and it has already plunged two points. And you know why that happens, right? The sharps are on Seattle like white on rice and you should be too.

Predicted Score: Lions 26 – Seahawks 23

NFL Pick: Seahawks +4½ for 2 units (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Seahawks +4½ (-110)
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The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 2-1, +0.90 units

The Woodman copped a cover with the Cowboys in Week 2 and went right back to the same ranch last week when he backed Jerry’s boys over the Giants on Monday night.

That strategy proved to be nothin’ but money honey and he’s looking to make it three in a row by grabbing the biggest dog on the board with the New England Patriots, sans Mac Jones, as they travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the Packers.

My man says Bet the Farm on the Patriots plus the double-digits!

P.S. Isn’t tundra by its very definition, frozen?

Woodman's Pick: Patriots +10½ (-110) at BetOnline

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Patriots +10½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.