Week 3 NFL Best Bets – We’re Rolling!

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Swinging Johnson had another winning week by going 2-1 against the spread in Week 2. Let’s see what Swinger has to say about Sunday’s matchups and the NFL odds as he looks to go for the sweep this week in his NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 5-2 ATS/ML (+5.10 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

What Happened on Week 2?

I have a feeling there will be plenty of NFL practices with instructions on the Heimlich Maneuver this week because so many teams choked last week. And one of those teams just happened to be the LA Rams, who were sitting pretty with a 31-10 lead over the Falcons with about 12 minutes left in the game.

As you may know, we were laying 10 ½ and had 4 units on the defending Super Bowl champs, which made this ATS money-burner a bitter pill to swallow as a blocked punt coupled with a comedy of errors in the fourth quarter allowed the Falcons back in the game. Final score: Rams 31 – Falcons 27.

Had we covered, we would have swept the board as we had 3 units on Miami +3 ½ and 1 unit on Miami +170 on the moneyline, as well as 2 units on the 49ers -9 ½ with both winning and covering their games.

I won’t lament the Rams’ loss because the only one who wants to hear a bad-beat story is the one telling it. Hey, we wound up +2.3 units for the week – which would have been +10.7 units had the Rams covered – so I’m not complaining. Of course, I’m not.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

How Are the Bengals Doing?

Everyone is down on the Bengals as I predicted they would be early in the season because of the target on their backs from last season’s surprising Super Bowl run. The Cats enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record after losses to the Steelers and Cowboys.

But let’s understand that Joe Burrow was dreadful against the Steelers, tossing 4 picks and losing a fumble for 5 turnovers all by his onesies. He followed that gem up with a decent, albeit unspectacular, effort last week in the 20-17 loss to Dallas.

But to be fair, his offensive line lived up to its name because it was nothing if not offensive as Burrow got sacked 5 times and was under duress throughout.

However, this week Burrow will feel like he’s on a Sandal’s vacation because the Jets don’t pressure very well and it should be easy pickins’ targeting the stellar Ja'Marr Chase and the speedy Tee Higgins. Joe Mixon will also have an easier time of it against New York’s 21st-ranked run-stop unit, allowing over 123 rushing yards per game.

Will the Jets Start a Streak?

Joe Flacco mounted a tremendous comeback last week when the Jets roared back in the final two minutes to score a pair of touchdowns and defeat the Browns, 31-30.

However, he will feel the heat this time around and won’t have a weak secondary to pick on.

Best Bet and Prediction

Later in the season we will look back at this point spread and wonder why. Why was it so low? And then we will realize the Bengals were 0-2 and relegated to the trash bin while the Jets were coming off an improbable, and miraculous, victory.

Not only do the Cats have to get off the schneid but this is a revenge game from last season when the Jets beat them, 34-31. Lay it and like it with Cincinnati.

Predicted Score: Bengals 31 - Jets 17

NFL Pick: Bengals -5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) for 3 units

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Bengals -5 (-110)
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium

Fading the Titans Is Paying Off

I must confess, I am taking a bit of a victory lap for my prediction that the Titans would be taking a few steps back this season. But before I pull a muscle patting myself on the back, I also felt the Colts would be a contender.

Well, the season is still in its infancy and it is entirely possible that both the Titans and Colts get back on track. But I am still firmly on the Tennessee fade train and will be backing the Raiders in this one.

Best Bet and Prediction

One of the keys to the Raiders' victory will be their ability to get in the Titans' backfield and get Tannehill’s uniform dirty. And they will do this because of a menacing defensive front and Tennessee’s decimated offensive line.

And that’s the same reason why Derrick Henry won’t gain much traction against a fairly stout Raiders run-stop unit. If there is no blocking, there will be no holes through which to run.

Another reason I like the Raiders here is that Tennessee had only six days to prepare for this one after being tortured on Monday night to the tune of a 41-7 loss to the Bills. That’s not an easy thing to shake on short notice and I’m confident they won’t.

Predicted Score: Raiders 27 - Titans 17

NFL Pick: Raiders -1 ½ (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) for 3 units

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Raiders -1 ½ (-110)
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField

Two Different Realities

The Eagles beat the Commanders twice last season and weren’t nearly as good as they are this year. Jalen Hurts has taken a huge leap forward while Washington has yet to find their mojo with Carson Wentz in the pocket.

The former Eagle seems to mitigate his tight, on-target spirals with head-scratching turnovers.

Best Bet and Prediction

Wentz will have his fair share of picks this Sunday if the script I have written in my head comes to fruition. Philadelphia has its share of ballhawks in the secondary as Kirk Cousins found out with his 3 picks last week in the Eagles' 24-7 win over the Vikings.

The line on this game has spiked from -3 to –6 ½ at the best sportsbooks and we look square as a microwave laying such a bad number. But just remember, there’s no such thing as a bad number if your team covers.

I believe this will be a double-digit victory for Philly and I am putting my money where my mouth is with 4 units on the visitors.

Predicted Score: Eagles 37 - Commanders 20

NFL Pick: Eagles -6 ½ (-107) at BetOnline for 4 units

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Eagles -6 ½ (-107)
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The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 1-1, -1.10 units

The Woodman got even last week by backing the Dak-less Cowboys, a team that was installed as an 8-point home underdog to the reigning AFC champion, Cincinnati Bengals.

I’ll give him credit, he didn’t flinch and pounced like a fat guy at a Chinese buffet, despite Dallas notching only a field goal in their 19-3 opening week loss to the Bucs. For those who missed it, the Boyz stunned the Cats, 20-17.

Well, the Woodman is going back to Jerry’s oil well and betting that the Cowboys will cover yet again as one-point road dogs to their ancient rivals, the New York Giants. Once, again, he is advising his acolytes to Bet the Farm!

Woodman's Pick: Cowboys +1 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Cowboys +1 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.