Swinging Johnson is back at it after a 2-1 ATS opening week and looking to sweep the board on Sunday with his NFL Best Bets! Let’s see what the man has to say as he locks and loads on the Week 2 slate.
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 2-1 ATS (+2.80 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Dogs Howl in Week 1…or Did They?
For all of those who entered suicide pools, you have my condolences. Week 1 resembled Jim Jones’ Jonestown with millions of entries replete with heavy favorites drinking the Kool-Aid. The reference may be a bit too dated for our younger audience but suffice it to say, Jim Jones was not a nice guy and his devotees paid the ultimate price. Just call me Buzz Killington.
In Week 1 a total of 6 underdogs won or tied straight-up including:
- The Seahawks (+6) over the Broncos
- Steelers (+7) over Cincinnati
- Bears (+6 ½) over 49ers
- Browns (+1 ½) over Panthers
- Texans (+7) tied Colts
- Giants (+5 ½) over Titans
But the funny thing about that is underdogs only went 8-8 ATS which means six of eight dogs that covered the number won their games outright.
So, what appeared on the surface to be a banner day for the underdogs was merely another day at the office.
How’d We Do in Week 1?
We did a good job of avoiding Week 1’s many landmines as we cashed with the Ravens -7 for three units over the Jets, while the Giants +5 ½ over the Titans brought us two units to the good. Our only misstep was bleeding two units on the Saints -5 ½ that eked out a win over the Falcons.
So, we’re off to a decent start and have +2.8 units in our pockets. I have a feeling we will see some of the favorites that lost last week return with a vengeance but unlike the public, we will not reflexively bet the chalk because of the “due” factor.
Without further ado, let’s check out the NFL odds in Week 2 as we get crackin’ and cashin’!
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 18, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Although the Ravens were my biggest play last week, I am not going back to that well. In fact, I am betting against them this week because Lamar Jackson will have protection problems with blindside tackle Ronnie Stanley questionable after sitting out in Week 1 and fellow tackle, Ja'Wuan James, tearing his Achilles last week, sidelining him for the second consecutive season.
When you think about it, Jackson doesn’t have many weapons at his disposal. Mark Andrews is a nice tight end but that’s a complementary piece to the offense. Riddle me this. How many of you have Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, or Demarcus Robinson on your FFL rosters? Oh, and how about Kenyan Drake at tailback? Anyone?
On the flip side, Tua has a dynamite set of twin turbos on the wings with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Oh, and if you want to know who will cover that dynamic duo, then consider that the Ravens will be without Kyle Fuller at cornerback who tore his ACL last week. That’s not a pretty picture for the Ravens’ defense.
As for Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert in the Miami backfield – well - you can’t have it all. But Tua is mobile enough to move the chains when his downfield targets are locked up.
Dolphins vs. Ravens: Best Bet and Prediction
I think this is an excellent spot for the Dolphins and am expecting they will win this game. For this NFL pick, I would go for more units but the season is too young to be that daring, however, I will place a unit on the moneyline as well.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 27 – Ravens 23
Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 18, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
The best thing that could have happened is that the Rams were devoured by the Bills last week. I say that because now we are getting a reasonable point spread here on the reigning Super Bowl champs against a team that showed some grit in their loss to the Saints.
But think back to last week and recall that Atlanta had that game in the bag, reminiscent of their fourth-quarter collapse in their Super Bowl loss to the Patriots a few years ago, but the Falcons routinely melt like butter in a blast furnace when crunch time comes around and so they bowed to the Saints in their season opener.
But now Marcus Mariota, with no weapons to speak of except his legs, will be tasked with avoiding the likes of Aaron Donald and company while begging for someone, anyone, to get open in the flat. Kyle Pitts will be Mariota’s only ticket out but I have a sneaking suspicion that Atlanta’s most valuable asset will be blanketed like a newborn in a snowstorm.
Falcons vs. Rams: Best Bet and Prediction
I expect this to be a blowout and I am sure I will have plenty of company in that regard. It’s always a bit stomach-churning when you are riding the bandwagon with Joe Q. Public and all of his short-sighted friends but the number here seems perfectly coverable unless Stafford’s elbow decides to take the afternoon off.
Predicted Score: Rams 37 – Falcons 19
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 18, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at Levi's Stadium
This game has the same underpinnings as the Falcons/Rams game above. We have a lousy team that exceeded expectations in the opening week against a superior team that looked nothing like their preseason press clippings. Seattle defeated the Broncos while the 49ers lost to the Bears.
Look, I’m not sure Trey Lance was the smartest No. 3 overall pick in history but I do know he isn’t nearly as bad as he looked in the monsoon-like conditions at Soldier Field last week. The Niners will be itching to atone for their loss but I have never put much stock in the emotional aspect of handicapping. I look at the players on the rosters, injuries, and matchups.
More to the point, I can’t help but dwell on the fact that Russell Wilson put up 340 yards against his old team last week and had only one touchdown to show for it. The Niners will make more of their opportunities because they couldn’t do much worse than the Broncos.
The biggest caveat to this bet on the 49ers is their lack of a rushing attack which, if we’re being honest, resembles more of a mild affront. The immortal Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely be in the starting role at tailback after Elijah Mitchell got hurt last week. Trey Lance will probably gain more rushing yards than anyone on the offense which doesn’t bode well for a lengthy career if that’s the recipe going forward for San Francisco’s running game.
Seahawks vs. 49ers: Best Bet and Prediction
Yes, this is another chalky play but the public isn’t always wrong and I don’t mind being a square if the books are going to pay me for playing the role.
Predicted Score: 49ers 30 – Seahawks 16
NFL Pick: 49ers -9 ½ (-106) at BetOnline for 2 units
The Woodman’s Corner
- Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 0-1, -1.10 units
The Woodman’s blind faith in Bill Belichick cost him last week when he backed the Pats as a three-point road dog only to see the South Beach jinx continue when the Fish continued their home-field dominance over their AFC East rivals with a 20-7 victory.
But that was then and this is now. The Woodman says, “Who needs Dak, we’ve got Rush!”, and so the man who never saw a pup he wouldn’t pet is telling his acolytes to Bet the Farm on the Cowboys!
Pssst…maybe scale it back a tad and bet a high-end pitchfork.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.