NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) are a win away from clinching a winning record in 2022, and it would put quarterback Justin Herbert above .500 (24-23) for the first time in his NFL career.
The Chargers just have to win on the road against an old rival, the Indianapolis Colts, who are coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history (33 points). That loss was going to cost someone their job, and it appears quarterback Matt Ryan is the scapegoat as he is benched for the second time this season. Former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles will make his first start for the team.
The Chargers are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 45.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. We have identified our favorite Week 16 MNF player props for this AFC matchup. All NFL odds courtesy of Bovada.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Monday, December 26, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium
Quarterback Props
Justin Herbert (Chargers)
- Over 280.5 Passing Yards
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Herbert has been a prolific quarterback in his three seasons, but 2022 has been his toughest year for various reasons. However, his receivers are getting healthy at the right time, and Herbert has passed for over 310 yards in each of his last three games.
The Colts have only allowed one passer to hit 280 yards this year, and that was Kirk Cousins in the comeback last week where he passed for 460 yards in a game that went through a fifth quarter in overtime.
Sneaky Good
The Colts have been a sneaky-good defense this season, put in way too many bad situations from an offense with a league-high 27 turnovers. But the Colts are still the only defense that can say they held the Chiefs and Eagles under 20 points this year.
Prior to two games ago, the Colts were the only team in the league to not allow more than 27 points in a game this year. However, the turnover fest in Dallas led to 33 points in the fourth quarter alone and 54 on the night. They then gave up 39 points in the second half to Minnesota, so these last two weeks have been rough.
The Herbert Beat
The Chargers are not going to run away with things here, and this team will go as Herbert goes. He is going to continue throwing often, giving him a great shot at another 300-yard game against a defense that has been exposed a bit in recent weeks.
But Herbert only needs to hit 281 yards for his over, and we like that pick a great deal for your NFL picks. He also should snap a three-game slump without throwing multiple touchdown passes, something he has done six times this year.
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)
NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-170)
Nick Foles (Colts)
- Under 231.5 Passing Yards
Foles has had one of the most fascinating careers for a quarterback in NFL history. The highs and lows have been all over the place. This will be his first start in exactly a year since he threw for 250 yards in a win with the Bears on the day after Christmas.
Statue in the Pocket
Foles has not thrown a pass yet for the Colts this season. It is uncertain what kind of offense they’ll want to run with Foles, but it should look better than when Sam Ehlinger tried to take over for Ryan. Nonetheless, Foles has similar problems to Ryan in that he can be a statue in the pocket and is susceptible to pressure if the line plays poorly.
This line is neatly placed since half the 14 quarterbacks to face the Chargers this year went over 231.5 yards and half did not. Usually, it was the better players who went over 231.5, but this defense held Tua Tagovailoa to 145 yards two weeks ago.
With Foles just getting his first start in a Colts uniform, we are going to bank on this being more of a conservative approach by Saturday and his staff. We’ll take the under.
NFL Pick: Nick Foles Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Running Back Props
Zack Moss (Colts)
- Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
- Over 1.5 Total Receptions
An ankle injury has ended Jonathan Taylor’s season. It happened on his first touch of the game last week. Zack Moss (24 carries for 81 yards) and Deon Jackson (13 carries for 55 yards) did what they could in Taylor’s place, and they had some production. But Jackson’s late fumble was a bad one, and the team may trust the more talented Moss to get most of the carries as he did that day.
The Chargers remain one of the worst run defenses in football, allowing the fifth-most yards per game and ranking 31st in yards per carry (5.3) allowed.
Lazy Saturday
We know since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, the Colts have wanted to establish better play in the trenches and get more out of the run. Four of the team’s best rushing games with over 100 yards have come since Saturday became the interim coach.
The Colts have not rushed for fewer than 99 yards in any of the games under Saturday. Moss may not be able to do what Taylor could but getting over 60 yards against a defense like the Chargers should be doable. They especially need to run to give Nick Foles help as he makes his first start of the season.
One way Foles can help himself is by checking down to Moss, who was used sparingly as a receiver with the Bills. Moss only needs two catches to hit him over there.
NFL Pick: Zack Moss Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (+105)
NFL Pick: Zack Moss Over 1.5 Total Receptions (-135)
Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
By ground or air, Ekeler has that nose for the end zone. After getting shut out in the first three games of the season, Ekeler has scored in 9-of-11 games since.
He momentarily left last week’s game with an injury only to return, play 69% of the snaps, and score a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Ekeler is always the best bet for the Chargers to find the end zone and if you are a fan of the Bolts looking to capitalize on this prop, check out our guide to the best California betting sites.
NFL Pick: Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
Receiver Props
Jelani Woods (Colts)
- Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
The Colts drafted tight end, Jelani Woods, in the third round, threw him two touchdowns in the upset win against the Chiefs, then seemed to forget he existed. Fortunately, he has been a factor again in recent weeks.
Woods had 98 yards against the Steelers in his most productive game, 28 yards in Dallas, and just one 36-yard catch last week against the Vikings.
But this is a low over to hit, and Foles is very used to getting the ball to tight ends. Let’s trust him to find Woods for at least 20 yards.
NFL Pick: Jelani Woods Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts)
- Over 5.5 Total Receptions
Pittman is averaging a career-low 9.5 yards per catch as he hasn’t been fully utilized to the best of his talents this year. But his new usage is good for hitting reception props; not so much for his yardage.
For example, Pittman caught 10 balls against Minnesota, but he only had 60 yards, which would fall short of his line (67.5 yards) in this game. But Pittman has gone over 5.5 receptions in 9-of-13 games played this year.
Let’s go with this being the 10th such game for Pittman with a new quarterback.
NFL Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 5.5 Total Receptions (-120) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
