Week 13 NFL Best Bets – Time for a Sweep!

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Travis Homer #25 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

Swinging Johnson has had a season-long habit of going 2-1 ATS in his weekly NFL Best Bets column which means he’s picking winners and making money. But Swinger has yet to go 3-0 and wants to break that streak this week!

Let’s check out the NFL odds and see if the man can sweep the board with his Week 13 NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 23-16 ATS/ML (+21.34 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

How Did We Do in Week 12?

We made money again, and I have to keep that in mind because it didn’t feel like a winning week. We got lucky with the Commanders covering as 4.5-point favorites – yes, I got an extraordinarily bad line on Wednesday night when I wrote last week’s column – over the Falcons for 3 units, while we lost those 3 units back when we bet the Ravens laying -4 (-105) (another lousy early number) as they lost outright to the Jags on the road.

However, we connected easily with the Panthers +2 in their 23-10 victory over the Broncos for 2 units. It was the only real savvy play of the day for me, as the other 2 were solidly in the square biz column. I might as well have been drinking a beer with Joe Q. Public and telling everyone within earshot about my vast mental library of all things NFL football.

You’ve undeniably heard this guy if you’ve ever hung inside a barroom on NFL Sunday. His mouth gets bigger as his bar tab grows longer, and the only teams he bets are favorites, preferably of the double-digit variety. He knows the name of every skill player but couldn’t tell you a thing about the competence of the offensive line and how they will match up against their defensive counterparts. He’s always trying to make a point – unfortunately, his hair is covering it.

I felt very much like that guy last week after watching my two road favorites struggle against seemingly inferior teams. Dismal picks to be honest, but with the Carolina Cats coming through we went 2-1 against the number and added 1.85 units to the kitty for a grand total of over 20 units on the season.

Okay, I promise to do better and be much more cognizant of my penchant for betting the chalk. Let’s try to get our first sweep of the season and bust our books just in time for the holidays. Are you with me? Let’s go!

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

Deshaun Watson’s first game in a Brown’s uniform will occur at the place he called home his entire career until he was dealt for a king’s ransom in the offseason. And as lousy as the Texans have been this season, don’t you think this game might pique their interest? Just a bit? Maybe?

Well, I am not one that normally banks on emotion as I believe it is overrated, but I am making an exception for this one. I will steal a quote from Pete Carroll and tell you that I believe Houston will be “jacked and pumped” for this one.

Let’s also consider the man of the hour, Deshaun Watson. I don’t think he will have a happy ending after this one is through – did you see what I did there? He was a mess in the preseason and now he is expected to step onto the gridiron after 11 weeks on the sidelines and is supposed to light it up. Just. Like. That.

Ah, no, I say nay. Houston will likely run Dameon Pierce like a rented mule as the Browns are ranked 23rd against the run, permitting 131.5 yards per game. And whether it's Davis Mills or Kyle Allen, either should have a modicum of success against Cleveland’s middling-at-best pass defense.

Best Bet and Prediction

My biggest fear in backing the Texans is Nick Chubb tearing the Texans’ run-stop unit a new one.

But let’s not forget, if the Browns are running that means the clock is ticking and it will be ticking even more if the Texans are committed to their own run game. That’s good news for underdog bettors, especially when they’re getting a touchdown head start in front of the fan friendlies.

Oh, one last thing for those into trends. Dig this, Houston has covered their last 7 meetings with Cleveland. Grab the points and cash a ticket.

For residents of Houston looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Texas betting sites.

Predicted Score: Browns 21 - Texans 17

NFL Pick: Texans +7 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Texans +7 (-108) for 3 units
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Tennessee Titans vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, December 4, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

This looks like a trap game for the Eagles. They are coming off of a big win over the Packers under the bright-white spotlight of Sunday Night Football and will likely be looking ahead to their matchup with a divisional rival in the New York Giants next week.

We should also consider that, although Philadelphia has been winning recently, the oddsmakers are pumping up the number knowing the betting public will bet on them no matter what. We see that they are at it again this week as Philadelphia opened at -6.5 but the sharps took a big bite and that number has dropped 1.5 points and is now down to -5.

Well, I’m sorry we are no longer getting north of a key number (6) but I still believe this could be an upset in the making. The Titans 3rd ranked run defense will take diminish the Eagles’ lethal ground attack which means Jalen Hurts will have to look to the air more often, whereas Philly’s passing game averages only 219 yards per game.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Titans won outright which means I am definitely a fan of taking the points, particularly when Philly has gone 1-3 ATS over their last 4 as these lines keep getting pumped up by the oddsmakers.

Best Bet and Prediction

When the betting masses wake up on Sunday and realize they have to get their bets in at 12:59, they will undoubtedly be sending it in on the Eagles.

That makes me smile because I am never unhappy when I’m fading Joe Q. Public.

Predicted Score: Eagles 24 - Titans 23

NFL Pick: Titans +5 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Titans +5 (-110) for 3 units
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, December 4, 2022 - 04:05 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

The Rams are so bad it’s astonishing. Now, they have likely lost Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald who should both rest their weary bones for the remainder of the season because the 3-8 defending Super Bowl champs are going nowhere fast this season.

The Rams have won and covered 5 of their last 6 meetings with Seattle, but now the tables have turned and the Seahawks have a major league chance for revenge. Geno Smith made some sort of Faustian deal in the offseason and although he may suffer eternal damnation, he is at least getting what he bargained for in having a career renaissance this year.

Let’s check out a few trends:

  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
  • Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 13.

Best Bet and Prediction

The Seahawks will be able to score at will while the Rams will be hard-pressed to find first downs. Let’s all join hands and form a square because that’s what we are in laying points on the road.

But remember, the public isn’t always wrong. Lay it and like it.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 31 - Rams 13

NFL Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (-109) for 4 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Seahawks -7.5 (-109) for 4 units
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The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 6-6, -0.58 units

The Woodman has been yo-yo-ing all season long and last week was another example. Our boy was coming off of a win the previous week and went with the Texans +13.5 last week as they traveled to the sun-splashed climes of South Beach and got waxed, 30-15, by the Dolphins.

This week the Woodman is betting that the Jets blast off in Minnesota when they face the Vikings in hostile territory. He says Gang Green will hang and bang with the lethal combination of Cousins-to-Jefferson and bring home dat cheddah! Oh, and how could I forget? The Woodman says, Bet The Farm!

Woodman's Pick: Jets +3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Jets +3 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.