Week 12 NFL Best Bets: Washington to Take Command on Sunday

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Jahan Dotson #1 and Curtis Samuel #10 of the Washington Commanders celebrate after a rushing touchdown in the second quarter of a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on November 20, 2022. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

Swinging Johnson hit his 5-unit max play last week and is up well over 19 units on the season. Yet, despite an ATS cover rate of over 58 percent, Swinger has yet to have a 3-0 week.

Let’s check out the NFL odds and see if the man can sweep the board with his Week 12 NFL picks

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 21-15 ATS/ML (+19.49 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

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How Did We Do in Week 11? 

If I haven’t stressed enough the need for having more than one out (sportsbook) at your disposal then I will let the lines do the talking. Last week I was able to find Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) offering the Bears at +3½ while all the other majors were dealing +3.  

As we all know, that half-point turned our best bet from a push to a cover when Chicago lost by a field goal. It was indeed a critical hook as the Bears were only our second 5-unit max play of the season. We are 2-0 ATS in those best bets but don’t hold your breath for another anytime soon as they come around about as often as a fat guy at a Speedo convention. It happens, just not all that much – thank God. 

Speaking of the Bears, I liked them so much I not only bet them for 5 units with the points but I bet 2 units on the moneyline at +150. Things were looking mighty fine when they were holding a 10-point lead until they watched it melt away like butter in a blast furnace and came out on the losing end of a 27-24 decision to the Falcons.

What About Our Other Bets?

As for our other two wagers, we had 4 units on the Patriots -3½ as we finally saw our many bad beats this season even out just a little as Marcus Jones returned a punt for a touchdown with only five seconds remaining in the game leading to a 10-3 victory over the Jets. It was a bee-you-tee-full thing to see. 

The only point spread loss we had was for 2 units as the Texans +3½ was not enough for them to get the cover against the Commanders after they fell, 23-10. 

So, when the smoke cleared, we went 2-1 ATS and 0-1 on the moneyline but picked up 4.64 units and are now sitting pretty with over 19 units of the bookie’s dough.

Let’s see if we can grab a few more bucks this week and finally get that 3-0 ATS week that has been eluding us thus far. Are you ready? Let’s go! 


Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field

The Ravens swoop into Jacksonville after a less-than-stellar offensive display last week when they defeated the Panthers, 13-3. Baltimore managed only two field goals while the defense was responsible for setting up Lamar Jackson in prime real estate off an interception that led to a touchdown.  

Needless to say, the Ravens scored no points in the heart and minds of the betting public as they failed to cover the 13-point impost and will be relegated to the trash bin this week because they have the memory of a goldfish.  

However, the public’s faults are our gains and although getting down on a road favorite smacks of square biz, it’s entirely possible that Joe Q. Public will be avoiding the Ravens like the plague based on last week’s lackluster offensive performance.  

What they don’t realize is that Jacksonville’s defense is not nearly as good as Carolina’s and that since Week 6 the Jags have allowed 23.6 points per game which is over three points higher than their season average of 20.5 and ranks them 14th in the league. 

Best Bet and Prediction

Lamar Jackson should have his way with this porous secondary, ranked 25th defending the pass, especially after last week when the offense bogged down and couldn’t sustain a drive. This week will be different and even though the Ravens have to win and cover in hostile territory, I’m willing to bet they will do just that. 

Score Prediction: Ravens 27 - Jaguars 18 

NFL Pick: Ravens -4 (-105) for 3 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Ravens -4 (-105)
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders

Sunday, November 27, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at FedExField

The Falcons got a few lucky breaks and beat the Bears last week, 27-24, but those who shopped around and pounced early in the week got Chicago +3½ which was my second 5-unit max play of the year with both covering the number. 

But this week they will travel to DC and take on a team that is getting hotter by the minute. The switch from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke has proved pivotal for the Commanders’ fortunes and they may be getting a force of nature back on defense, Chase Young, as early as this week.  

How is Marcus Mariota going to move the chains through the air when Atlanta has the 31st-ranked passing “attack” against an improving Washington pass defense, currently ranked 12th? Well, the answer is he won’t because he will try to move the chains with his legs and by facilitating the running game. But that might not work so well either considering the Commanders are ranked 6th against the run. 

As for the flip side of the equation, Washington’s offense is not a juggernaut but they might look like one when facing one of the worst defensive units in the business. Atlanta ranks 29th against the pass, 30th in total yards allowed, and 28th in points allowed. They’re a mess and the Commanders will cover the number because of it.  

Best Bet and Prediction

It’s not surprising the opening line has jumped from Washington -3 to -4½ as of this Thursday morning writing but it won’t deter us from getting down on them, it will only make us scale back our wager. 

Score Prediction: Commanders 24 - Falcons 13 

NFL Pick: Commanders -4½ (-110) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Commanders -4 ½ (-110)
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Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, November 27, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium

If there is one game on the Week 12 docket that screams “Don’t look at me, I’m hideous,” it’s this one. This is going to be a slogfest between two moribund offenses with Denver owning an elite defense.  

I would normally be inclined to bet under the posted total but the oddsmakers are making that increasingly difficult to do as the current number is 36 and it’s just a matter of time before Denver’s streak of six consecutive unders is snapped.

Chances are the Panthers won’t cover if this total goes high which is why I am unwilling to shove all of my chips into the middle of the table by going low. Especially since we have a wild card under center for Carolina, Sam Darnold. 

Sometimes you are just so disgusted at a team’s offensive performance you can’t help fading them and I think this is where I am in this game. Russell Wilson has been an abomination for the Broncos and the only way he moves this offense is if he moves his legs. Aside from that, Denver is going nowhere fast.  

Best Bet and Prediction

I have to put the brakes on a bit because, after all, we’re not only fading the Broncos but we’re betting on the Panthers, giving us cause for pause. As you can see, I am vacillating somewhat on how many units to make this pick but I shall err on the side of caution and flip a few units against Denver. 

To all NC locals who are betting on this matchup, make sure to check out the North Carolina betting sites.

Score Prediction: Panthers 17 - Broncos 10 

NFL Pick: Panthers +2 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports 

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Panthers +2 (-108)
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The Woodman’s Corner 

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: (6-5, +0.50 units) 

The Woodman found a gem last week with the Carolina Panthers getting a boatload of points against the Ravens. Although the Cats lost the game, 13-3, Woodman’s legion of acolytes took home the cash with the 13-point head start. 

This week he is going back to the well with another double-digit underdog as the Texans are getting a hook more than Carolina did last week.

Can Houston stay within the margins in the sun-splashed climes of South Beach? The Woodman believes they can and he says: Bet the Farm on Houston! 

Woodman's Pick: Texans +13½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Texans +13 ½ (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.