Week 11 NFL Best Bets – Max Play and Moneyline Alert!

profile image of Swinging.Johnson

Swinging Johnson is up nearly 15 units on the season and has one of his rare 5-unit maximum plays, as well as a moneyline bet to boot! Let’s see if Swinger can sweep the board as he checks out the NFL odds and looks to bury the books with his Week 11 NFL picks!

  • Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 19-13 ATS/ML (+14.85 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
  • @SwingeratBMR

How Did We Do in Week 10?

Well, we had our first bad week of the season, we went 1-2 against the spread with the Texans +5 outgaining the Giants in total yards but losing the game and failing to stay within the margins. That cost us 3 units before we really took a face plant with the Raiders -6 for 4 units after they lost outright to the Colts.

No one knew the Colts would reverse direction and give the ball to the recently exiled Matty Ice, but it happened and was the spark the Colts needed. I was also asked by one of my followers right before game time whether I would cut my unit size down on the Raiders after the line dropped from -6 to -4. I said I would because Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller were put on IR after I wrote the article on Wednesday night.

For all those who arch their eyebrows when I get a much better line than the one on Sunday, know that I lock in early. But the reverse can happen as well, which it did in the Raiders game. However, my line is my line and my units are my units. They’re locked in, for good, bad, or indifferent.

The good news is we did pick up 3 units with the Dolphins -3.5, as they laid waste to the Browns and never really made us sweat the bet, drawing away to a 39-17 decision. So, it wasn’t a terrible week, but it felt like one because we have been cruising along under sunny skies all season but the past few weeks have seen the clouds roll in and the water has become a bit choppy.

We dropped 4.5 units but we’re still making well over 14x what we came to the party with back in Week 1 and that’s something to hang our hats on, right? Let’s check out what Week 11 has in store and bust up those bookmakers, baby!

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool With Weekly Prizes

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

One team I rarely bet on or against is my hometown New England Patriots. I’m just a wee bit too close to all of the Boston sports talk and it can influence my handicapping perspective. But this week, I am on the Pats like white on rice for a few reasons.

First, Bill Belichick toys with young quarterbacks like a cat plays with its food. Three weeks ago, Zach Wilson threw 3 interceptions and connected on less than 50% of his passes in what was a carefully crafted Patriots’ defense intended to confuse the young gunslinger. When the dust settled, Wilson had a QBR of 27 and the Patriots won the game, 22-17, in hostile territory.

So, what’s changed? Well, the venue for one, and Belichick has had a bye week to go back to his laboratory and dream up exciting new ways to torture Wilson. We should also note that New England’s defense is playing like a house on fire with Matt Judon wreaking havoc in enemy backfields all season long.

Best Bet and Prediction

As stated, I don’t bet them often but this looks like an ideal opportunity to see the Pats win this one in a cakewalk.

Predicted Score: Patriots 27 - Jets 16

NFL Pick: Patriots -3 (-120) for 4 Units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Patriots -3 (-120)
Visit Site

Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

Some teams are much better than their record indicates and the Texans are such a team. Now I might be guilty of chasing my own tail as I bet them last week, and despite outgaining the Giants and hanging tough throughout, they lost, 24-16, and failed to cover as 5-point road dogs.

But now they are home, back where they belong, and what’s even better is that they are playing the Commanders fresh off one of the biggest upsets of the season. Don’tcha think the boys from DC might be overlooking the Texans after stunning the only undefeated team in the league until last week?

Look, the Texans are 2-2-1 ATS at home and never get blown out. The Commanders are not a team that will run up the score so this has all the markings of a tight game.

Best Bet and Prediction

Following the best sportsbooks, let’s grab the points with the home hound and cash a ticket.

Predicted Score: Commanders 21 - Texans 19

NFL Pick: Texans +3.5 (-118) for 2 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Texans +3.5 (-118)
Visit Site

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Justin Fields finally has an offense designed around his breathtaking running ability and the Bears are benefiting because of it. Consider for a moment that since the Bears upset the Patriots on October 24th, they have averaged 31 points per game. Now, compare that to their 15.5 points per game average during their first 6 games – amazing, right?

Of course, you can argue that the Bears have lost 3 of those 4 high-scoring affairs, but it’s no secret that Chicago’s defense is the pits. But there is no shame in losing to the Cowboys or the Dolphins while last week’s 31-30 defeat to the Lions was due to a fourth-quarter meltdown.

Best Bet and Prediction

Now I ask you, do you think the Falcons, a team that lost 25-15 to the lowly Panthers last week, will be able to keep pace with this newly retooled Bears’ offense?

Marcus Mariota does a fine job running the ball, but he can’t pass and when you fall behind by 2 touchdowns you have to abandon the run which bodes well for the Bears in this one.

Max play and moneyline alert!

Predicted Score: Bears 31 - Falcons 27

NFL Pick: Bears +3.5 (-118) for 5 units at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Bears +3.5 (-118)
Visit Site

NFL Pick: Bears ML (+150) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Bears ML (+150)
Visit Site

The Woodman’s Corner

  • Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 5-5, -0.50 units

So close but yet so far. The Woodman backed the Jags +9.5 against the Chiefs last week and wouldn’t you know, the infamous hook did him dirty. That’s right, it was a 10-point victory for Kansas City and that dropped our man to .500 on the season.

And what, pray tell, is the Woodman’s strategy for getting out of the grey and into the black? Well, surprise, surprise, he’s taking another big underdog!

Are we sensing a pattern over the last 30 years with the Woodman? This week the man has switched cats, moving from the Jags to the Panthers as they travel to Baltimore to take on Lamar and the Ravens. As always, the Woodman’s advice is to… Bet the Farm!

Woodman's Pick: Panthers +13 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Panthers +13 (-108)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.