Swinging Johnson is up over 19 units for those who have been following his NFL best bets week after week, but he has yet to sweep the board despite capping at over 62 percent on the season. Let’s see if Swinger can get that elusive sweep as he checks out the NFL odds and looks to bury the books with his Week 10 NFL picks!
- Swinger’s 2022 NFL Record: 18-11 ATS/ML (+19.35 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
How Did We Do in Week 9?
We went 2-1 against the number and connected on our biggest wager, 4 units on the Commanders +3.5 against the Vikings, last week. It was a solid play, as it took Minnesota 3 unanswered fourth-quarter scores to notch the 20-17 victory and get a push for many who didn’t bet the Commanders earlier in the week when there were 3.5‘s to be found, just like the one I discovered at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
No doubt, I’ll take it, but I know many in my audience don’t read Swinger’s Picks until gameday, which means some of the lines I am quoting have disappeared. But I can’t control the weather, all I can do is adjust my thermostat, so if you want to get down at the numbers I am seeing then you better follow me on Twitter because I tweet my NFL Best Bets the moment they go live at Bookmakers Review.
As for our other 2 plays, we flamed badly with the Carolina +7.5 over the Bengals for 3 units, but we did pick up 2 units with the Bears +5, who bowed 35-32 to the Dolphins.
Overall, we went 2-1 ATS and picked up 2.76 units and are now Over 19 units to the good. Let’s try to get the sweep this week. You with me? Let’s go!
Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
The Texans are among the dregs of the league this season and the public loves fading bad teams. And while that’s not a terrible strategy, we must consider that the oddsmakers have the ultimate equalizer in their pockets: the point spread.
Any team is worth betting on if the price is right, and it looks very attractive here as the Texans are getting 5 points, down from 6 when this line opened. So, now we know the sharps have taken a bite of the underdog because the public stays away from road dogs with a lousy record like a bad habit. That’s the first thing that emboldens me, but there are a few other factors to consider.
The Eagles are regarded as one of the top teams in football, yet they held only a 4-point lead entering the 4th quarter of last week’s game against Houston. In the end, Philadelphia drew away to a 29-17 victory, but the Texans covered as 14-point home hounds.
Houston will have their hands full, and then, some containing Saquon Barkley. However, the Giants' offensive line has plenty of dings and they will likely be without a few of their starters. This will hinder (to a certain extent) Barkley’s production, but it could paralyze New York’s aerial attack, as Houston is decent against the pass while the Giants check in with the 29th-ranked passing offense, averaging just 159 yards per game.
Best Bet and Prediction
The bottom line is that the Texans are in a decent spot to actually pull the upset because the Giants are not as good as their record indicates. Eventually, we will see things evening up in that regard in the coming weeks and it could start happening as early as this Sunday.
Predicted Score: Giants 23 - Texans 21
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
The Browns have a few things going for them in the eyes of the public. They are coming off of their bye week and the last time they took the field, they made Joe Burrow look like Joe Q. Public in a 32-13 win over the Bengals in Cleveland. Never forget, the public has a short-term memory and the oddsmakers know this.
And that’s a big reason why the Fish aren’t being favored by 6 or more in this matchup. The Dolphins should be able to move the chains through the air with their twin terrors on the wings, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But they now have Jeff Wilson Jr. carrying the rock, who will likely usurp Raheem Mostert as the lead back in South Beach and he’s a hard man to bring down.
Cleveland is 1-3 away from their home turf and I envision Jacoby Brissett having issues with the newly acquired pass-rushing Pro Bowler from a few years ago, Bradley Chubb, getting into his business in the backfield.
Best Bet and Prediction
I think this will be an easy cover for the Fish, but I am a bit leery that Cleveland may have more punch to pack after their bye week which is why this is not a heavier play.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 30 - Browns 20
Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 04:05 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium
The Colts were lousy last week in a 26-3 loss to the Patriots and now they have made a head coaching change that will see a former player with no head coaching experience, except at the high school level, jump right into the saddle and is expected to wave a magic wand to make it all better.
On the other hand, we have a Las Vegas defense that has proven itself defenseless this season, but, fortunately, they will be pitted against the Colts' worst offense in the league, ranked dead last at 32nd averaging 14.7 points per game.
Say what you want about the Raiders underachieving, but based on the talented triumvirate of Derek Carr, Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs alone, I’d say it will be nearly impossible for the Colts to hang and bang with this crew.
A couple of noteworthy trends:
- Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Best Bet and Prediction
Although McDaniels has been a mess as the head coach in Sin City, he has to make adjustments because his players are now questioning why his game plans change so drastically when he has a double-digit lead. The Raiders have lost all three games this season in which they have been ahead by 17-points, but I can’t see that happening again.
In my square play of the day, I am laying it and liking it with the Raiders in this one.
Predicted Score: Raiders 24 - Colts 13
NFL Pick: Raiders -6 (-105) for 4 Units at Bookmaker
The Woodman’s Corner
- Woodman’s 2022 NFL Record: 5-4, +0.60 units
Last week the Woodman didn’t even have to sweat it, as the Titans were never in jeopardy of not covering due to the generous 13-point head start the oddsmakers gave them in their game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. When the smoke cleared, the Chiefs rallied past the Titans and notched a 20-17 overtime victory, but it was the Titans that brought home the cash.
Now that the Woodman is officially above .500, he says it’s time to put some daylight between him and the average Joe. This week he is staking his claim on another big road pup and giving all his love to the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to – surprise, surprise – Arrowhead Stadium to meet the Chiefs! Nothing sweeter than a repeater, so sayeth the Woodman.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.