Don’t write off the Denver Broncos – they’re the right NFL pick for Sunday’s matchup with the Washington Football Team.
Washington Football Team vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 31, 2021 – 04:25 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
Remember how well the Denver Broncos (3-4 SU and ATS) were playing at the start of the NFL season? They won three straight SU and ATS; since then, it’s been nothing but goose eggs in that Denver omelet. The strength of the schedule has played a big part here, as you are no doubt well aware by now.
Those first three opponents were the New York Giants (+3 at home), the Jacksonville Jaguars (+6 at home), and the New York Jets (+10.5 away). Look who’s coming to town this Sunday: the Washington Football Team (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS).
Whatever’s been going wrong with those three sad-sack franchises – or Denver, for that matter – cannot hold a candle to the D.C. Follies. Of course, we’re putting the Broncos in our NFL picks this week as 3-point home favorites at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review). It’s a moral imperative.
Good Times Bad Times
I don’t even have to look at the projections to know the Broncos are the right choice, but for you, I will. FiveThirtyEight says Denver –5; Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today says Denver –3.87 using his Rating system, and –8.75 using his eigenvector analysis. ESPN’s Football Power Index also likes the Broncos to win 69 percent of the time, or –223 using the very nice BMR Odds Converter.
The NFL odds show the Broncos –165 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press. While these projections call for a chunky bet on Denver, we’re going to dial back those expectations just a bit. After playing three cupcakes and four relatively legitimate NFL clubs (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland), the Broncos find themselves at No. 22 on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, just one spot ahead of the Football Team.
There’s also been a steady march of players onto the injured reserve list – 16 in total, including five in the month of October. Stud LB Von Miller (ankle) isn’t one of them, but he is questionable for Sunday’s matchup.
Drain The Swamp
Denver’s all sunshine and roses compared to what’s happening with the WFT. That NFL investigation has dug up some pretty bad stuff, enough to cost Raiders head coach Jon Gruden his job – but not anyone of note from Washington, at least not yet. Given the racism involved, don’t expect the Team players not to care, or not to let it affect their focus.
Maybe things would have worked out better with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Alas, we’ll never know; Fitzpatrick is due for another MRI on his injured hip in two weeks. Taylor Heinicke (10 TDs, seven INTs) is the least of Washington’s problems – actually, their excellent special teams have been the least problematic – but his game-managing isn’t going to be any better than Teddy Bridgewater’s for Denver.
For your NFL pick, bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Broncos –3 (–113) at Heritage Sports
The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.