Vikings vs. Bills NFL Week 10 Top Picks: Buffalo Will Be Minnesota’s Toughest Test

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James Cook #28 of the Buffalo Bills runs with the ball after making a catch as Quincy Williams #56 of the New York Jets looks to make a tackle. Mike Stobe/Getty Images/AFP.

The Minnesota Vikings have been exceeding expectations this season with their 7-1 record. They will face their toughest test of the season as they head to upstate New York to take on the 6-2 Bills.

Buffalo will be looking to get back on track after suffering their second loss of the season to an AFC East opponent.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

Buffalo Looking to Bounce Back

The Buffalo Bills were a preseason favorite to win the Superbowl and with good reason. Despite their upset loss to the New York Jets last week, Buffalo has shown enough this season that they are legit contenders.

In Week 10, they will host the 7-1 Vikings as -7 point home favorites at the NFL odds. There are some 6.5’s available and BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) currently has the line at -6 for those of you who like Buffalo in this spot.

I think if the Bills play up to their potential, there’s no doubt they will win this game. The question is, can they do enough to cover this full touchdown spread?

The Vikings are a team that has a tendency to start off slow and turn thine late. Buffalo on the other hand has put up huge point totals early and cruised to victory in a lot of their wins. This would be a worse case scenario for the Vikings, who will want to have a more balanced attack than usual to keep the Bills' pass rush at bay.

Vikings Get To Prove They Are For Real

The Vikings schedule has been quite soft to start the season with the rest of the teams in their division in shambles at the moment. We aren’t even halfway through the season and it already appears that the Vikings have the NFC North title all but wrapped up according to top-rated sportsbooks.

Their toughest opponent on the season was the Eagles, who beat them rather easily with a final score of 24-7. The left side of Minnesota’s offensive line got abused against Philadelphia and head coach Kevin O’Connell will not want to put Kirk Cousins in that situation again.

Cousins for his part is doing a great job at leading this team. For as much criticism as he receives, Cousins is a steadying presence for this young group. He has played within himself this season and has stepped up when the team really needed him.

His limitations are still the same and it is imperative that the Vikings don’t have him drop back to pass 40+ times or they will be in trouble. When playing from a clean pocket, Cousins has been elite. When under pressure, the results have been bad which is the difference between Cousins and an elite quarterback like Josh Allen for Buffalo.

Bills Full Game and Props To Look Out For

My first official play is on a prop bet available at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review). These teams score a combined 6.2 touchdowns per game. The prop being offered by Bovada is Over 5.5 touchdowns, yes at +120 and no at -160.

In the Bills' two losses, they were let down by their passing game. This is an offense that when clicking can put up 40+ points on any team. That said, I don’t think this will be that type of game.

Defensive Traits

I think the Bills get it done on the defensive end and look to get back to playing balanced football. On top of that, I expect the Vikings to also run the ball more than they have so far this season.

Of all the Bills' strengths on defense, stopping the run is not one of them. While the Vikings have one of the league’s worst secondaries, they’ve made a few adjustments in the last two weeks to mitigate the damage teams can do against them in the passing game.

I also like this game to go under the 45.5 total which might seem low for these teams, but the Bills have not played a game that has gone over that number since Week 2.

Finally, for the last of my NFL picks, I like the Bills to cover the -6 spread, which is also available at BetOnline. I think Buffalo’s defense will hold the Vikings to under 20 points in this game which will be enough for them to cover the number.

NFL Pick: Bills -6 (-115) at BetOnline

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Bills -6 (-115)
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NFL Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 45.5 (-110)
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NFL Pick: Under 5.5 Touchdowns (-160) at Bovada

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Under 5.5 Touchdowns (-160)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.