Trends and Injuries to Keep In Mind Before Betting on the NFL Divisional Round Playoff Games 

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Isaiah McKenzie #6 of the Buffalo Bills catches a pass against the Detroit Lions on November 24, 2022. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP

Don’t get left behind; here are the most important betting trends and missing personnel to consider for your Divisional Round NFL picks. 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For example, the Wild Card betting trends over the past 20 years or so were good for both the underdogs and the Under, yet that’s not quite how things played out last week.

The underdogs went 4-2 ATS, but the Over was the big winner at 5-1. 
 
Betting trends still allow us to make more informed NFL picks. So does keeping track of all the injured players, and there’s a lot to keep track of for this weekend’s four NFL Divisional playoff games.


The Fab Five

Here are five trends and injuries that deserve some extra consideration before you open up that wallet and/or purse: 

The Bye Week Matters 

Or at least it used to.

Home teams in the Divisional round are 15-12-1 ATS over the past seven years, although they only went 1-3 ATS last year, losing three of those four games straight-up. However, as you may recall, those were some crazy games that could have gone either way. 

A quick check of BMR’s live odds board reveals the advantage of playing at home has fallen across all sports in recent years, so this angle will naturally carry less weight than it used to.

But the logic still applies: Casual bettors underestimate the importance of the bye week, and their recency bias helps drive the NFL odds too far toward the Wild Card winners.  

With the new 14-team playoff system, only No. 1 Philadelphia and No. 1 Kansas City earned a bye this year, but rest and recovery will also matter to the No. 2 San Francisco 49ers; they beat Seattle last Saturday, while the No. 5 Dallas Cowboys beat Tampa Bay on a Monday night. 

Down Goes Williams 

As a general rule, casual fans tend not to notice when an offensive lineman gets taken out of commission. This ignorance is even more pronounced when the team in question is a small-market team – like the No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals, who almost certainly won’t have LT Jonah Williams (knee) for Sunday’s Divisional tilt with No. 2 Buffalo. 

Williams hasn’t technically been ruled out yet as we go to press, but he didn’t practice Wednesday, and it’s believed he has a dislocated kneecap.

That will leave Jackson Carman to protect QB Joe Burrow’s blind side against the ninth-ranked pass defense on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders. RG Alex Cappa (ankle) is also expected to sit out after missing their Wild Card victory over Baltimore. 

Home Teams on Saturday, Road Teams on Sunday 

Is this really a thing? If we’ve run the numbers correctly here at the ranch, home teams are 21-5 SU and 18-8 ATS in the Divisional round for Saturday games dating back to 2006, while road teams are 16-18 SU and 23-10-1 ATS on Sunday. 
 
Maybe this is because the road teams that didn’t get the bye really need that extra day to recuperate. Or perhaps it’s just dumb luck.

Probably a combination of both, along with other factors, but it’s still a harrowing trend for Cincinnati, Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. 

The McKenzie Report 

Here’s some good news for a change on the injury front: Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie (hamstring) put in full practice Wednesday after missing Buffalo’s Wild Card win over Miami. It’s very likely he’ll return to slot duty against the Bengals. 
 
We don’t normally hear much about Buffalo’s No. 3 wideout, but McKenzie is one of the better players in the game, ranking No. 30 in DVOA for receivers.

His return is bad news for a Cincinnati defense that ranks No. 12 against the pass, including No. 29 in sacks (30 on the season) and No. 30 in Adjusted Sack Rate. 

Will the Eagles Fly? 

Looking at team-specific playoff betting trends, history is not on Philadelphia’s side this week: They’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams in their division
 
But is this trend still relevant for Saturday’s Divisional round matchup with the New York Giants?

You have to go all the way back to the 2009-10 playoffs for the last time the Eagles faced anyone from the NFC East and 2008-09 for their last encounter with the Giants – which they won 23-11 as 4-point road dogs. 
 
The world has changed since then. This isn’t the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb Eagles, nor the Tom Coughlin-Eli Manning Giants we’re dealing with here.

But the NFC East definitely has its swagger back after some very lean years; this should be a quality matchup between two rejuvenated franchises with a long history together on the field, so bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you. 

Make sure to check out the best US Betting Sites available in order to make your bets.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.