Titans vs. Packers NFL Week 11 TNF Player Props: Can Green Bay Outrun Derrick Henry?

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Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans rushes for a touchdown as Mario Addison #97 of the Houston Texans defends. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The Green Bay Packers (4-6) host the Tennessee Titans (6-3) this Thursday night after a thrilling comeback win over the Cowboys on Sunday to end a five-game losing streak. Can the Packers start a winning streak to save their season?

These teams last met in 2020 and the Packers ran all over the Titans in a snow game in a 40-14 rout. The Packers are a 3-point home favorite in a game with a total of 41 points at many of the best sportsbooks.

The temperature should be in the low 20s again, so it could be another big night for the running game that both these teams seem to be in favor of right now.

We have found our favorite NFL player props for this matchup.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

Thursday, November 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field

Quarterback Props

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

What if minimizing Aaron Rodgers’s throws in this offense will actually maximize his talent? The Packers just had one of the most unusual comebacks in NFL history as Rodgers attempted 19 passes in regulation and one in overtime. The Packers are the second team in NFL history to win a game by not throwing more than 20 passes despite trailing by 14 points to start the fourth quarter.

Rodgers found three big touchdowns to rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, establishing some chemistry for the first time all year with the rookie who has battled drops and injuries. Rodgers barely looked for top target Allen Lazard until overtime when he broke free over the middle for one of the biggest plays of the game.

It has been a down year for Rodgers, but he has still managed to throw multiple touchdown passes in 7 of 10 games, including a season-high three on Sunday against a good Cowboys' pass defense.

The Titans are a hard team to score on, only allowing more than 22 points to Buffalo this year. But when they do surrender points, it is almost always through the air. The Titans have allowed 16 touchdown passes to two rushing touchdowns. Rodgers still likes to throw the short ones near the goal line, so he is a safe bet for over 1.5 touchdown passes again.

There is also the fact that in 34 prime-time starts at home in the regular season, Rodgers has thrown 87 touchdowns and is 29-5 for the Packers. This is him in his element.

NFL Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114)
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Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee Titans)

  • Under 186.5 Passing Yards

Tennessee games have been tight and low scoring, so there is not much value in expecting Ryan Tannehill to have to throw a lot to catch up. It’s not like these are the Packers of old and you expect 30 or 40 points on the scoreboard.

Even in a blowout, the over is not safe for this Tennessee passing offense. Tannehill only passed for 117 yards in a 41-7 loss to Buffalo in Week 2 before getting benched. Two years ago in the 40-14 loss at Green Bay, Tannehill passed for 121 yards in the snow, and that was even when the team still had A.J. Brown and Corey Davis at wide receiver.

The Titans also have scored a league-low 12 points in the fourth quarter, so moving the ball downfield at will through the air late in games is not something we have seen from this offense in 2022.

Tannehill has been under 186.5 yards in 4-of-7 games this season. The Packers have allowed the third-fewest passing yards this season. This should be a Derrick Henry night for the Titans rather than the broken passing game.

NFL Prop Pick: Ryan Tannehill Under 186.5 Passing Yards (-113) at Bovada

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Ryan Tannehill Under 186.5 Passing Yards (-113)
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Running Back Props

Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Over 103.5 Rushing Yards

Respect to the Titans for using Derrick Henry as a workhorse back. With a lot of these teams, we just don’t know what the split will be with carries anymore. Is Taysom Hill going to steal touchdowns and big runs from Alvin Kamara in New Orleans? Is Tony Pollard going to lose out to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas? Is it an Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon night for the Packers? Is Rhamondre Stevenson finally well ahead of Damien Harris in New England?

We know the Titans are going to ride Henry, and he doesn’t put up stinkers in back-to-back weeks ever since he established himself as a dominant runner in 2018. That is the last season where Henry rushed for under 75 yards in consecutive weeks.

He only had 53 yards against Denver on Sunday as the Broncos played him well. But he’ll be ready for this one on a cold night. Even when the Titans lost 40-14 two years ago in Green Bay, Henry had 23 carries for 98 yards. If the game was a little closer he would have gone over 100 yards.

He was over 100 yards five games in a row prior to Sunday. Time to start a new streak against the No. 28 run defense. Trust Henry to go over 100 yards and score a touchdown in this one.

NFL Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-157) at Bovada

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Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-157)
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NFL Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards (-126) at Bovada

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Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards (-126)
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AJ Dillon (Green Bay Packers)

  • Over 33.5 Rushing Yards

Maybe this one is a trap and Rodgers will throw for 300 yards out of the blue, but Dillon is an enticing pick. When he played the Titans in 2020, he rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns. It was his breakout game and still the best game he’s had in the NFL.

Dillon has gone over 33.5 rushing yards in 8-of-10 games this year. Sure, he rushed for exactly 34 yards twice and had another game with 32, so he does skirt the line very closely. But more often than not, he clears 33.5.

The Packers just gave him 13 carries for 65 yards against Dallas. Seven of his eight games with 65 rushing yards have been at home, but we just need 34 yards here.

The risky part is the Tennessee defense, which has faced the fewest runs, allowed the second-fewest yards, and ranked No. 3 in yards per carry. This is a tough defense to run on, but the Packers need to be consistent with trying like they were against the Cowboys and Bills in recent weeks.

We’re going to trust the Packers to keep up with the running game and Dillon just hits the over in the fourth quarter.

NFL Prop Pick: AJ Dillon Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bovada

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AJ Dillon Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Receiver Props

Austin Hooper (Tennessee Titans)

  • Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Every receiving prop feels like a trap in this game but getting tight end Austin Hooper a couple catches doesn’t feel like a big ask in this one. Hooper has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in three of the last four games. He has also played over 60% of the snaps in consecutive games for the first time this season.

For what it’s worth, Hooper has played the Packers five times with other teams over the years and finished over 22.5 receiving yards four times. He had 26 yards on three catches as a member of the Browns in Green Bay last Christmas.

NFL Prop Pick: Austin Hooper Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Bovada

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Austin Hooper Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
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Allen Lazard (Green Bay Packers)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Game Winner Parlay

Putting everything together for our final NFL pick, we like the player performance double of Allen Lazard scoring a touchdown and the Packers winning the game.

A lot of attention will go to rookie Christian Watson after he scored three touchdowns against Dallas, but he didn’t just turn into Randy Moss overnight. Look for Rodgers to go back to Lazard, who has five touchdowns this year, after he was only targeted four times in a low-volume passing game for the Packers.

Lazard will see more targets this week and he is still the preferred choice for Rodgers to throw a touchdown to. The Packers also should be able to score enough at home to outlast the Titans where they always play well in spots like this. It won’t be 40-14 again, but the Packers should win this game.

NFL Prop Pick: Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown Scorer / Packers Moneyline (+290) at Bovada

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Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown Scorer / Packers Moneyline (+290)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.