Titans vs. Packers Week 11 TNF: Will Green Bay Let Tennessee Run Away With AFC South?

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Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates during overtime against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field on November 13, 2022. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images/AFP

Tennessee is comfortably at the top of the AFC South division but can inch closer to a division title with a victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field. 

Let’s review the NFL odds and analyze this matchup as we look to duplicate what we did last Thursday night in hitting the side and the total with our TNF NFL picks.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers 

Thursday, November 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field

The Titans outlasted the Broncos, 17-10, in the Music City last week. It was reminiscent of their other five wins this season, a pedestrian offense bolstered by a stout defense. The big, thumping rushing game led by Derrick Henry never got out of neutral as Denver was able to limit the power-back to just 53 yards. 

However, Ryan Tannehill was able to move the chains through the air with 255 passing yards and a pair of touchdown strikes. The third-year wideout, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, had a career day with 119 receiving yards and two touchdowns. 

Next Man Up Mentality

Despite playing without five defensive starters, including 2021 Pro Bowler Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Bud Dupree, while seeing three other members of the defense sidelined during Sunday’s win, the Titans had six sacks of Denver’s Russell Wilson. 

Linebacker Rashad Weaver, who contributed 1 ½ sacks to the cause, said after the game, “Anytime guys like Jeff or Bud aren’t out there, those guys that change the game, impact players, you want to go out there and do the same thing. Not only to step up but to make those guys proud.” 

Packers Snap Losing Streak 

Green Bay last notched a win way back in Week 4 with a 27-24 overtime victory over the Patriots in Lambeau Field. Since that time the Packers had dropped five consecutive games and covered the number in just 1 of their last 6 contests

And before all of that changed last week, when the Packers rallied past the Cowboys for a 31-28 overtime victory to move to 4-6 on the season, Green Bay head coach, Matt Lafleur said, "Nobody really cares about what you're going through, what the circumstances are. You're expected to win, especially here. We know we're going against a great opponent -- one of the best teams in the National Football League." 

Back to Basics

What made the win even more special was how the Packers came together and rallied for the victory. Green Bay was trailing by 14 points entering the final quarter when Aaron Rodgers connected on 39 and 7-yard touchdown passes, both to Christian Watson, to tie up the game and send it into extra innings. 

Mason Crosby would subsequently drill a 28-yard field goal in overtime to ice the three-point victory and Green bay would cover as 4-point road dogs over the Cowboys in Dallas. Rodgers looked sharp in connecting on 14-of-20 with 224 yards and three passing touchdowns. Aaron Jones rambled for 138 of the team’s 207 yards. 

Titans vs. Packers Predictions

Although I believe it is unlikely the Packers will nudge their way into the postseason, I’m quite sure they don’t agree with me, especially after a big win over a very good team in hostile territory. 

But what I do believe is that they will be a good bet on Thursday night in this spot. They are playing at home and will be motivated to keep on keepin’ on after mounting a furious rally and coming away the victors. 

The Titans have the 31st-ranked passing offense, averaging just 148.2 yards per game, and that number will likely drop after this one is over as the Packers are No. 1 against the pass and 5th in total yards allowed. The only way Tennessee wins is if Derrick Henry runs wild. And there’s an excellent chance he will against a rather porous Packers’ run defense, ranked 26th and allowing over 138 yards per game. 

Just One Small Detail

But here’s the issue. Aaron Rodgers will be licking his chops just thinking about the prospect of carving up the Titans’ 31st-ranked pass defense. It essentially comes down to Henry being able to trade touchdowns with Rodgers and that’s a game he will lose, as would just about any rushing offense against any decent passing attack. 

This game has the makings of a big Packer victory as Tennessee will likely have to open up the passing lanes to try to catch up after they fall hopelessly behind. That will lead to Titan turnovers and, as a result, more opportunities for Green Bay to score. 

I suspect Tennessee will get a few garbage-time touchdowns which is why I have a lean-on over the posted total for our second NFL pick.

Score Prediction: Packers 26, Titans 17 

NFL Pick: Packers -2 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

NFL Pick: Over 41 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.