Texans vs. Titans NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions

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Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans. Silas Walker/Getty Images/AFP

The one-win Houston Texans come into this divisional clash knowing they’re unlikely to compete with the current #1 seed of the AFC. A double-digit spread says all you need to know about these two teams this season and frankly, I’m a little surprised the Titans aren’t favored by more.

It’s a relatively low total so the best online bookmakers obviously don’t think the Texans will be scoring many points this weekend. Let’s see the NFL odds.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, November 21, 2021 – 1:00 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

How Do the Texans Keep This Competitive?

Realistically it probably won’t ever be competitive, but they have the rest advantage at least as they’re coming off of their bye week. It’s a tough one to assess whether they want to win or not, but the coaching staff knows they’re likely playing for their job so what is best the franchise probably isn’t best for them.

They will need their QB to keep the ball safe at least as Tyrod Taylor returned to action last week and threw 3 interceptions against the Dolphins as well as getting sacked 5 times behind a porous offensive line. He actually made the Texans watchable in the first 6 quarters of the season; winning against the Jaguars and giving his team the lead against the Browns before getting injured.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Houston Texans. Mark Brown/Getty Images/AFP

As one of the most talent-poor rosters in the league, it’s always going to be difficult to move the ball and after trading away Mark Ingram the run-game is practically non-existent as David Johnson and Philip Lindsay are struggling to put up yards.

The only way they’re really moving the ball is targeting Brandin Cooks who had double the amount of passes thrown his way as the second receiver on his team, Danny Amendola in their last action. There’s really not a lot more to talk about on their offense, it’s not a good unit.

Danny Amendola #80 of the Detroit Lions. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP

I don’t see how they score more than 14 points really. If you’re looking for a prop though then Brandin Cooks receptions are probably the only one you can take the over on.

Is It a Let-Down Spot for the Titans?

It’s hard to argue that the Titans aren’t the best team in the AFC at present with the run they’ve been on in recent weeks having beaten the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints in consecutive weeks, they are now priced as the second favorites for the AFC behind the Bills.

It’s one of the toughest runs any team had all year and they’ve come out of it with flying colors despite losing Derrick Henry for the last two games. Those wins against the Rams and Saints came on the back of dominant defensive performances as a defensive line who has often struggled to get home has been getting to opposing QBs with regularity.

Derrick Henry #22 of the Tennessee Titans. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

It means that Dont’a Foreman and recently signed Adrian Peterson don’t have to fill Henry’s boots, just be adequate and help move the chains for the Titans to put up scores in the 20s and that’s enough to win games with how they’re playing at the moment.

Ryan Tannehill rushed in for his 5th score of the season on Sunday making it 4 TDs in his last 5 games. I doubt he’ll need to do that against this team, but the ability is there and without Henry punching them in at the goal-line he’s been required to do that. He’s without Julio Jones through the air as his WR2 is on IR for the next few weeks.

Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Tennessee Titans. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images/AFP

That means AJ Brown has to step up and he has done during this stretch with multiple 100-yard games over the last month although 1 for 16 yards this past week wasn’t very helpful to the team. The likes of Marcus Johnson and the running backs did enough for the Titans to get another win though.

Will the Texans Keep It Close?

That’s the pertinent question here. They do have the best advantage and with the caliber of opposition, the Titans have faced over the last month and a bit of the season they may overlook the Texans here, which makes taking either side covering the spread a dicey option.

It’s a down-spot for the Titans while the Texans just aren’t very good. I’m going to have to plump for the under. The Titans' defense has stepped up in recent weeks while their offense has been doing just enough without blowing teams away.

NFL Pick: Titans Under 45 at -108 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.