Teams on Upset Alert in NFL Week 6

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Quarterback Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

We are looking to bounce back after losing a week trying to find the top teams to ponder for upsets against the point spread and outright. In looking at this week’s slate, we are heading out on a limb. This week for our upset selections, we are going to the dark side for a couple of them.

We have looked over the NFL odds and determined that not one, but two professional football teams that have yet to win a game this season could do so this week. We also have a divisional rivalry matchup and we are backing an underdog with a horrible history at home against their hated rival. Does any of this make sense? Heck no, but it is the NFL, right? Time to explain the insanity.

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 17, 2021 – 9:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Jacksonville is winless at 0-5 and has only covered the spread once. Head coach Urban Meyer is not only finding victories a challenge, he’s on a losing streak of another kind with his wife and family. The Jaguars are losing by 11.8 points a game and outgained by 60 yards a contest. This is not truly a surprise to anyone thus far. What is a surprise is how Miami is playing at 1-4 (2-3 ATS).

After such an unexpected 10-6 campaign a year ago, the Dolphins, who had been known for playing hard under head coach Brian Flores, have often looked lethargic. There appear two prime reasons for this. First, the defense that conceded just 21 PPG a year ago and caused several miscues has allowed 32 PPG since giving up 16 to New England in its opener.

Though Tua Tagovailoa has yet to show if he is a franchise quarterback, Jacoby Brissett is certainly a good backup and nothing more. Though Tagovailoa might return this week, this is the perfect week for a Jacksonville uprising.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110) with BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

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Jaguars +3.5 (-1)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 1:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field, Chicago

For all the grief Matt Nagy has received and mostly deserves in Chi-Town, they are playing for a first-place tie in the NFC North against front-running Green Bay. The Bears are 3-2 after their impressive victory over Las Vegas on the road. Justin Fields will start again for Chicago and while he’s not setting the NFL on fire with his play, he’s not making mistakes and generating timely plays.

The Bears defense starts this week 9th overall and they have players that are flying around the field like linebacker Roquan Smith. The Green Bay defense is actually ranked higher at No. 6 and they stop teams repeatedly until they have a disastrous breakdown and they are only 29th in yards per point allowed.

Aaron Rodgers’ name speaks for itself and since Brett Favre’s first year as a Packer, he is among the green and gold quarterbacks that are 24-6 SU and 22-8 ATS at Soldier Field since then. With sportsbooks showing Chicago +4.5 points and the Pack at 3-12 ATS in road games after four or more consecutive wins against the spread, the Bears could engineer the upset.

NFL Pick: Bears +4.5 (-110) with BookMaker

Bears +4.5 (-110)
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, October 17, 2021 - 1:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Though both Cincinnati and Detroit suffered hard-to-swallow setbacks last week, you have to feel at least a little sorry for the Lions. New coach Dan Campbell was in tears at his press conference after losing another very winnable game, this time at Minnesota on the final play of the game, again.

Campbell is finding out what Lions fans already know, winning never comes easy for this franchise. Granted, Detroit's defense did not make important stops in the final seconds versus both Baltimore and the Vikings which would have led to triumphs.

The Bengals kicked themselves to the curb in a bizarre loss to Green Bay. Cincy hung with the Pack and they have a date at Baltimore after this nonconference clash, thus, we question their ability to have great motivation.

Detroit is so close to breaking through and the oddsmakers only have them at +3 home underdog against a Bengals bunch that is 0-6 ATS playing against a team with a win percentage of 25% lower over the last few seasons. For NFL picks, it’s the Lions with conviction (and a rosary).

NFL Pick: Lions +3 (-110) with BookMaker

Lions +3 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.