Swinger’s NFL Week 18 Picks

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Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

I am not a guy to bemoan my bad beats because the only one who wants to hear a bad beat story is the one telling it. And especially when handicappers do it, it’s a bit pathetic because they’re essentially saying, “I wasn’t wrong, I’m the victim.” Puh-leeeze.  

However, I’ll indulge in a scintilla of self-pity when I tell you that our only loss in three weeks came by half a point when Josh Allen inexplicably threw two picks and was sacked in the end zone for a safety. Those two points were the reason we failed to cover which is positively absurd. The Bills -14 ½ (-105) defeated the overmatched Falcons, 29-15, but fortunately, most of you who tailed me likely got the Bills -14 and pushed as a result of the line dropping a hook from the time my article was published on Thursday.  

Okay, my woe is me, mini-rant is over and despite that half-point costing us a 3-0 ATS week and four units to the books, we did get well with the Bengals +5 ½ over the Chiefs for 3 units and the Titans -3 ½ over the Dolphins for 2 units. 

We ended 2-1 against the number and +0.80 units to the good. We are virtually dead even as we enter the final week of the regular season and although we haven’t made money, we’ve had plenty of fun along the way without any casualties to our bankroll. Let’s get our wallets healthy and see what I have for you in my NFL picks before the playoffs, shall we? 

Swinger’s 2021-22 NFL Record: 24-21 ATS (-0.09 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Saturday, January 8, 2022 – 4:30 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High

The No. 1 overall seed in the AFC comes down to the Titans and the Chiefs on the last week of the regular season. The Titans control the narrative as a win over the Texans in Houston will seal the deal. But the thing is, they don’t play until Sunday while the Chiefs will battle the Broncos on Saturday and will have to look at this game as a must-win if they want that one coveted first-round bye in the AFC. Trust me, they want it. 

Therefore, I expect the Chiefs to be airing it out and putting a good thumping on the Broncos as they did earlier in the season when they came away with a 22-9 win. Let’s join hands with all of our square friends and back the Chiefs on Saturday. 

NFL Pick: Chiefs -10 (-108) for 3 units with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review

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Chiefs -10 (-108)
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, January 9, 2022 - 1:00 PM ET at TIAA Bank Field

We all know the Jaguars are lousy and they proved that by getting walloped, 50-10, last week by the Patriots. But did you also know that not every team is as good on their best day nor as bad as they showed on their worst? And I might also add the Jaguars happen to match up very well against the Colts as evidenced by their astonishing 8-1-1 ATS record versus the Colts over their last 10 meetings! 

The Colts are a gritty team that can hang and bang with even the best, but they don’t go out and punish teams. They have an All-World running back in Jonathan Taylor and that’s about it. Earlier this year the Jags bowed, 23-17, to Indianapolis but once again got the cover as 10 ½ point road dogs. Now they are at home and getting a whopping 16 points! Grab it, bet it, cash it. 

NFL Pick: Jaguars +16 (-115) for 3 units with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Jaguars +16 (-115)
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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, January 09, 2022 - 04:25 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

Ugh! No matter how often the Bills break my heart I keep running back to them with open arms and a rose between my teeth. Poetry, thy name is Swinger. Okay, so the Bills crushed me last week with a relatively lackluster effort and still won by two touchdowns. Now they face another inferior opponent, even worse than the one they played last week and should stomp them mercilessly in a game they need to win.  

The Bills crushed the Jets, 45-17, earlier this season and now they get to tune them up in their own playground on Sunday. The NFL odds are steep, no doubt, but this is a massacre waiting to happen and I am counting the minutes! 

NFL Pick: Bills -16 (-117) for 4 units with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review

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Bills -16 (-117)
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The Woodman’s Corner 

Woodman’s 2021-22 NFL Record (11-6, +4.53 units) 

The Broncos did the Woodman dirty last week as they failed to keep pace with the high-octane offense led by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers. But this week the Freak from Back East is saying sayonara to the underdogs, at least for a week, and letting his heart do the talking by taking his beloved New England Patriots over the Dolphins in the regular-season finale.  

He says bet the farm on Belichick’s boys at the top-rated books, however, I would advise a more tepid approach, maybe just the weed whacker. 

Woodman's Pick: Patriots -6.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Patriots -6.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.