Swinger’s NFL Week 17 Picks

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Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP

After a few weeks of stumbling, we have gotten white-hot as the season draws to a close and are now 6-0 against the number over the last two NFL Sundays.

Last week we limited our unit size due to uncertainty surrounding the active players with the pandemic ravaging rosters all over the league. But we came out blazing with our top play, Cincinnati -2 ½, beating up the Ravens and cashing for three units. We also cashed with the Bucs -10 over the Panthers and Bears +6 ½ winning outright over the Seahawks, both for two units. 

Let’s do it all over again and keep hammering the books

Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 22-20 ATS (-0.89 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, January 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

Is there a number where betting the Falcons against a rapacious Bills’ defense is feasible in this spot? Well, of course, if the line swells high enough to where it’s absurd we certainly can pull the trigger. But even though the NFL odds are showing the Bills as 14 ½ point home chalk, I can’t help but wonder how Matt Ryan, a man who has been getting bloodied and battered due to poor protection all season, can suddenly make it happen against this Bills’ defense? 

And when we flip to the other side of the ball, how do the Falcons stave off Josh Allen’s aerial attack? Here’s the deal with the Falcons, their victories are against the league’s dregs like Giants, Jets, Jaguars, Panthers, and Lions with two more wins against the early season struggling Dolphins and the Saints. All those wins were by an average of 4.7 points.  

However, seven of their eight losses have been by double-digits with the only exception being a 19-13 setback to the lowly Panthers in their first of two meetings. In short, the Falcons get crushed by good and very good teams. The Bills qualify as the latter and should win this one by 20 or more.  

NFL Pick: Bills -14 ½ (-107) for 4 Units with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bills -14 ½ (-107) 
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Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, January 02, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

The Dolphins’ seven-game winning streak will be snapped this week because the Titans’ offense got a big boost with the return of A.J. Brown last week and are head and shoulders above Miami’s recent competition which includes victories over the Texans, Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, Jets again, and a compromised Saints roster using their fourth-string quarterback last week.  

The Titans have had ten days to prepare for this one after they upset the 49ers in their Thursday night affair and should generate enough defensive pressure to rattle Tua while creating an offense to not only win this game but cover the number.

The only caveat is the illustrious Jaylen Waddle going off against a subpar Titans’ secondary. However, for that to happen it would necessitate Tua from getting out from under the pressure he will face from Tennessee’s pass rush.  

NFL Pick: Titans -3 ½ (-108) for 2 units with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Titans -3 ½ (-108) 
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, January 02, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST Paul Brown Stadium

The Chiefs are getting plenty of square action after they destroyed the Steelers, 36-10, in front of a national audience on Sunday night. But now they will travel to the Queen City to face one of the better teams in the league with one of the most dynamic young quarterbacks in Joe Burrow.  

We should also note that Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon will allow Burrow a bit more time in the pocket because the KC defense will have to focus on containing a man who can break a long one on any given play.

I believe we have serious value on the Bengals, getting 5 ½ points because it eclipses the magic 3 and a very important 4. This should be the most entertaining game on the Sunday slate and I believe the Bengals can at least hang within the margins, if not win this one outright. 

NFL Pick: Bengals +5 ½ (-116) for 3 units with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bengals +5 ½ (-116)
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The Woodman’s Corner 

Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (11-5, +5.63 units) 

Woodman is officially en fuego. He clicked again with the Browns +7 ½ against the Packers in a 24-22 loss last week but got the all-important cover. His prodigious powers of prognostication and penchant for pups are killing it this year. 

This week, he sees another pretty puppy as the Denver Broncos will meet their divisional rivals from LA for the second time this year and will look to repeat their performance from last time when they defeated the Bolts, 28-13. Now they are on the road and getting a generous head start from the oddsmakers. For your NFL picks, bet the farm on the Broncos, so sayeth the Woodman! 

Woodman's Pick: Broncos +6 ½ (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Broncos +6 ½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.