Swinger’s NFL Week 16 Picks

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Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Swinger crushed the books last week by hitting his 5-unit max play followed by two more winning wagers for a blistering 3-0 week. Let’s check out his NFL picks for Week 16 and see if he can sweep the board yet again!

Last week was a moment of clarity in what has been a tumultuous season that has vexed and beguiled me (I sound like I’m being stalked by a witch). If you are a regular reader of Swinger’s Picks then you know our 5-unit max plays come around about as often as a fat guy at a Speedo store. But the Buffalo Bills were worthy of such a wager after taking care of business and beating the Panthers, 31-14, and covering the 10½ impost.

The other two prescient picks were of the 4-unit variety as Dallas -10 ½ defeated the Giants 21-6 and Cincinnati +2 ½ connected in their 15-10 outright win over Denver. Overall, it was a 3-0 day and slashed 13 units off of our yearly tab. We are not out of the woods yet but we’re working on it.

Lastly, be cautious this week as rosters are being decimated by the COVID casualties. Cut your unit size down until the cloud lifts and maintain control. We’ve still got plenty of time left in the season including playoffs so play it cool.

Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 19-20 ATS (-8.89 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, December 26, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium

The Panthers are a mess right now which is why I faded them last week and will do so again. The Bucs are coming off of a humiliating loss to the Saints and lost one of their top receivers, Chris Godwin, in the process.

And while Godwin will be out for the season with a torn ACL and Leonard Fournette will also miss this game with a hamstring pull, the Bucs will be getting back Antonio Brown and signed Le’Veon Bell to spell Ronald Jones who will be getting the lion’s share of the carries without Fournette in the backfield.

Tampa Bay has a dream schedule to end the season with games against the woeful Panthers followed by the even "woefuller" (not a word but I'm taking credit when it is) Jets and will return to Tampa to host the Panthers at the Ray Jay in their season finale. Tom Brady is seething after last week’s dismal performance and you never want to mess with an angry GOAT.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers -10 (-110) for 2 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Buccaneers -10 (-110)
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, December 26, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Paul Brown Stadium

I am partial to two teams this year because I think they can beat anyone at any time even though they don’t have the same depth and talent as the elite of the league. One of those teams is the Baltimore Ravens and the other is the Cincinnati Bengals. Guess who I’m on in this one?

These teams met earlier this season and the Cats ate the Birds whole courtesy of a 41-17 destruction in Baltimore. Now, these divisional rivals will meet on Sunday in the Queen City and I wouldn’t be surprised if the results were the same – a double-digit win by the Bengals.

There is word that Lamar Jackson may be out but this is still a great spot for the Bengals either way because the Ravens are a train wreck stopping the pass as evidenced by their 31st of 32 ranking in that department, allowing nearly 265 passing yards per game.

Joe Burrow launched for 416 yards and three touchdowns in their earlier meeting with Baltimore missing one of their starting defensive backs. But on Sunday they will be without both starting cornerbacks and Chuck Clark, a starting safety. This should be a free-for-all if the Bengals have it together and there’s no reason to believe they won’t.

The NFL odds at BetOnline are still showing the home team as a 2½ point favorite where it’s gone to -3 just about everywhere else. Let’s lock it down under the magic number at BOL.

NFL Pick: Bengals -2½ (-120) for 3 units at BetOnline

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Bengals -2½ (-120)
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Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, December 26, 2021- 4:05 PM EST at Lumen Field

I ask you, what have the Seahawks done lately and why would they be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone? And yes, as bad as the Bears have been this year, they have kept the majority of their games relatively close.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense has not truly clicked this season and it’s gotten worse after his finger injury. Seattle is also dead last defending the pass but fortunately, for them, the Bears are dead last in passing.

But while that would seem to diminish Seattle’s defensive liability, I don’t think it will in this case because Justin Fields had 285 yards passing last week against Minnesota and he’s beginning to get into a groove. And nothing will make him feel groovier than this lackluster Seattle pass defense.

The oddsmakers are giving two fairly equal teams too many points to one of them and if they want to give me an early Christmas present then who am I to say no?

NFL Pick: Bears +6½ (-120) for 2 units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (10-5, +4.63 units)

The Woodman clicked again last week with the New Orleans Saints getting a boatload against Tom Terrific and the Bucs. They not only covered as double-digit dogs but won the game outright, 9-0, sweeping the defending Super Bowl champs in their season series.

This week he is reaching into his bag of tricks with another underdog, this time it is the Cleveland Browns as they will be traveling to Lambeau Field as 7½ point road pups. Don’t forget, kids, this is a Saturday game so prepare accordingly.

Woodman's Pick: Browns +7½ (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.