Each week Swinging Johnson delivers his best bets of the week and this week is no exception as the man returns to take another swing at the books. Let’s check out his NFL picks for Week 15 and make some cash!
Another hellacious handicapping week for me as we posted a consecutive 0-3 ATS record with 3 units on the Jets, 4 units on the Lions, and 4 units on a Buffalo team that went into overtime getting 3 ½ only to lose by six! I won’t lament these losses at length because the only one who wants to hear about bad beats is the person telling the story.
It’s a miserable season but trust me when I tell you I have plenty of company from pro handicappers who, shall we say, are less transparent than yours truly. I always say, if you want to crow about your covers then you better be willing to man up and talk about your losses.
Don’t put me on fade just yet because I think the books are going to get crushed this week with quite a few chalky favorites and I’m on a few of them below. Let’s go!
Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 16-20 ATS (-21.89 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 19, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
This game was the subject of my weekly chat with fellow BMR handicapper, Doug Upstone, in our Point/Counterpoint series. I am all over the Bills like white on rice and I couldn’t care less if it smacks of a Joe Q. Public Play of the Day.
The Bills are desperate, and they’re very good despite a less than stellar record, while the Panthers have an offense that is stuck in neutral. Cam Newton can’t even throw an accurate 10-yard pass at this point and he is supposed to be able to trade with Josh Allen and the aerial blitzkrieg as he will be commanding on Sunday in front of a rabid Bills Mafia contingent?
Ain’t happening. I know this looks like I’m chasing but this would be a 5-unit play on any week, regardless of my record, and I will save you my lamentations about it being a square play. It’s a winning play and that’s all that matters.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Sunday, December 19, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
The Giants' offensive line will melt trying to protect whoever is under center for them on Sunday against the roving hordes of the Cowboys’ swarming pass rush. Dak Prescott needs to be Dak Prescott and here he will have an opportunity to shine as he did in their first meeting when he tossed for 302 yards and three touchdown strikes in the Cowboys’ 44-20 Week 5 victory.
I ask you, what has changed between then and now, other than the venue? I can’t see anything that would make me believe Dallas won’t run roughshod over the Giants in this one which is why the double digits don’t scare me. Chalky yes – apologies no.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 19, 2021 - 04:05 PM EST at Empower Field at Mile High
I would love to get the Bengals +3 in this spot but let’s be honest, if you are betting a field goal underdog and you don’t believe they can win the game outright then you shouldn’t be betting them in the first place.
The Bengals dropped a 26-23 overtime decision to the 49ers last week despite Joe Burrow lighting it up to the tune of 348 yards and two touchdowns but they couldn’t quite the running game on track. We should also note that two Cincinnati special teams’ miscues allowed the 49ers to put points on the board.
The Broncos will need to run to win but the Bengals run-stop unit ranks fourth in the league, allowing just 93.1 yards per contest. If this comes down to a passing contest between game-manager, Teddy Bridgewater, and game-changer, Joe Burrow, who are you going to put your money on?
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (9-5, +3.63 units)
The Woodman flamed out for the second consecutive week with another double-digit underdog when the Giants could not keep pace with the Chargers. But the man is still up units for the year and he’s looking to add to that count by backing the Saints as they travel to the sun-splashed beaches of Tampa Bay to take on Tom Terrific and the Bucs.
The Saints have dominated this series, winning 16 of their last 21 games, the vast majority of which happened pre-TB, but you should note New Orleans won both regular-season contests last year and claimed a 36-27 victory earlier this year. Woodman says grab the points and bet the farm!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.