Swinger’s NFL Week 14 Picks

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Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers talks with the offensee. Sean Gardner/Getty Images/AFP

Swinger is back with his NFL picks for Week 14 and has several treats in store for the readers. Let’s see what the man has up his sleeve as we look to bust our bookies this Sunday!

Bah-ru-tal. That’s what my week was last week. We had the Vikings (3 units), Bears (3 units), and Falcons (2 units) and they all flamed. I feel like a track coach with cement shoes. This utter ineptitude is largely due to genetics. You see my great-great-grandfather parlayed the Germans in both wars. I’ll be here all week so make sure to tip your waiters and waitresses…and by all means, try the veal.

Look, I don’t mean to be a nabob of negativity but what else can I do after that dumpster fire of a week? I guess even Babe Ruth struck out from time to time but he’s the home run king, right? Where’s my home run?!
Oh, glad I asked. It’s this Sunday and I’ll have three, please. Let’s go!

Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record

16-17 ATS (-9.59 Units Using a 1-To-5-Unit System)

MORE PICKS: Check Out The Donnie and Kyle Show: NFL Best Bets Week 14

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets

Sunday, December 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

Taysom Hill will be wearing a splint after he suffered a fracture to his middle finger on his throwing hand last week in the Saints’ 27-17 loss to the Cowboys. We saw how devastating that injury can be to a passer when Russell Wilson returned after surgery and looked merely mortal for a few games until the injury truly healed.

Well, Taysom Hill, you’re no Russell Wilson, and the Jets should handle this spot quite well. Okay, sure, they’re the Jets, I grant you that, but didn’t Zach Wilson look awfully good in the first half of their game against the Eagles last week? I thought so and consider that the Saints have zero pass rush to speak of. They are near the basement in quarterback pressure and hurries so Wilson will have time in the pocket.

New Orleans has lost five straight and now they’re laying 5 ½ on the highway? That line is inflated because the public loves to fade Gang Green but this week they’ll get their hands slapped by the best sportsbooks for doing so.

We are on the Z-Train straight to Midtown and we’re gonna pick up a boatload of cash when we get there. Jets launch on Sunday.

NFL Pick: Jets +5 ½ (-110) For 3 Units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Jets +5 ½ (-110)
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Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 12, 2021 - 04:05 PM EST at Empower Field

Let’s understand that the Broncos have a good defense but not a great defense. That often gets overlooked when evaluating the Broncos as many just assume they’re better than they actually are.

And to this point, we see that the NFL odds at all of the best online sportsbooks are revealing Denver as ranging between 8 to 9 ½ point home favorites.

But this is also a team that ranks 23rd in scoring and they’re laying 9 ½ points? I don’t care if they’re at home or on Uranus, they shouldn’t be laying anywhere near close to 10 points to anyone.

And speaking of that anyone, the Lions won their first game last week when they upset the Vikings, 29-27, and Jared Goff looked comfortable in the pocket for the first time all season. He threw for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns and will now be facing a team that doesn’t score much.

One last thing. The Lions have been losing close games recently, having tied the Steelers then losing 13-10 to Cleveland and 16-14 to Chicago before beating the Vikings last week. This number is too high so grab the points and back the Cats.

NFL Pick: Lions +9 ½ (-108) For 4 Units at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Lions +9 ½ (-108)
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Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, December 12, 2021 - 04:25 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium

The Bills will be itching to get back on the field after their 14-10 loss to the Patriots in the middle of a monsoon at Orchard Park. Allen wasn’t able to employ his vast arsenal of weapons because the wind proved to be the best cover-man he’s faced all year.

However, this game will be different as the Bucs don’t defend the pass very well and Allen will come out gunning in perfect conditions. Buffalo doesn’t even pretend to run the ball so they won’t have to worry about getting stonewalled by that immense Bucs run-stop unit.

Brady will hit his targets, he always does, but he will be facing the No. 1 pressure defense in the league and he won’t have much time in the pocket. Leonard Fournette figures to have a good game but when the Bills take the lead, the Bucs will have to eschew the run and go strictly to the passing game. I like the Bills to win outright but I’ll take the points just in case.

NFL Pick: Bills +3 ½ (-117) For 4 Units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Bills +3 ½ (-117)
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The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (9-4, +4.73 Units)

The Woodman’s white-hot streak came to an abrupt halt last week when the Broncos didn’t buck quite hard enough and failed to cover despite a 10 ½ point head start in their 22-9 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

This week he is going back to the realm of the double-digit dogs and taking a shot with the Giants as they visit the Bolts in L.A. Will the Woodman get back on track or is this a cooler in the making? (dramatic music) Tune in next week and find out!

Woodman's Pick: Giants +10 (-110) at Bovada

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Giants +10 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.