Swinger is back with his top NFL picks for Week 13 and fresh off covering with one of his rare 5-unit plays from last week. Let’s see what the man has in store for us this week as he looks to sweep with his three best bets on the board!
Most NFL handicappers make excuses when they lose but not me. I not only admit to the errors of my ways but I sometimes apologize when I win. Yes, and I shall do so again because I got lucky with the Bucs covering my 5-unit max play last week. Tampa Bay was outplayed by the Colts throughout the game and I was fortunate to get the ATS cover courtesy of Leonard Fournette.
The other two picks were not as successful as we dropped four units on the Vikings +3 ½ as they fell 34-26 to the 49ers and another two units on the Rams -1 against the Packers. The week was not productive, yet not all that costly, and we are now a click below the break-even point for the season. Gotta do better than this and we will. Let’s go!
Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 16-14 ATS (-0.85 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 05, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Ford Field
Ah, and here we are again. Another road favorite that I just can’t keep away from and am acknowledging for the world to see that my penchant for chalky teams knows no bounds even though they have cost me dearly this season. To wit, I give you the Minnesota Vikings. A plucky bunch that has a few things working in its favor this week.
First and foremost, when Kirk Cousins isn’t torching this depleted Lions’ secondary, Dalvin Cook or his backup, will be running all over this 29th ranked run-stop unit. Secondly, this is the second meeting between these two divisional rivals and the Vikings will have learned a few things from their 19-17 win in Minnesota earlier this season.
If you recall, Cousins didn’t throw a touchdown pass until late in the second quarter and the Lions rallied late to make this one closer than the final score indicated. Lastly, Minnesota also outgained Detroit by about 100 total yards in that game and Jared Goff is not nearly as healthy now as he was then.
Furthermore, the Lions’ best pass rusher, Trey Flowers, played in that game and picked up one of the two Detroit sacks. He is questionable for this one and if he does play, will he really be Trey? That was an unabashed intentional rhyme…my apologies. I’m limiting this play to 3 units because it’s road chalk and the last game was close.
But much has changed and the Vikings realize they can’t lose this one while the Lions have already made postseason vacation plans for tropical destinations far away from the gridiron.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 05, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field
I debated this game with my buddy, Doug Upstone in our Point/Counterpoint column we write together each week. It’s not that I necessarily like the Bears but I see a few “whoops moments” ahead for the Cardinals as in – “Whoops, how the heck did we lose that one?”
We’ve already seen evidence of this in Arizona’s unexpected blowout loss to the Panthers a few weeks ago and I can see another stumble here, on the road, against the Bears. Chicago has had a difficult schedule, to say the least, but they have been extremely competitive over the last three weeks with a win over Detroit, a three-point loss to Baltimore, and a two-point loss to Pittsburgh.
I see the Bears being able to run on this JJ Watt-less defense and when teams run, they chew up the clock, move the sticks, and manage to stay within the oddsmakers' margins. Let’s also not forget that Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins may not play but if they do, I can’t imagine they will be close to 100 percent.
This is the proverbial trap game for the Cards as they could very well be overlooking the Bears for a divisional date with the Rams looming. Grab the points and back the Bears.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 05, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Make no mistake, the Bucs could blow out the Falcons and nobody would be shocked. But the Bucs haven’t bowled me over, especially after their lackluster performance throughout much of last week’s game against Indianapolis – Leonard Fournette excluded.
The Bucs have several injuries with Antonio Brown most likely gone again while guard Ali Marpet will likely be on the shelf. But their defense has truly taken a beating and the Bucs have yet to defeat a team by more than a touchdown when on the highway this year.
The Falcons rank 14th defending the pass so they aren’t terrible in that regard while the Bucs pass defense is 20th in the league. The Bucs could be looking ahead to welcoming Josh Allen and the Bills to the sun-kissed climes of Tampa Bay. I see the Bucs winning but not caring enough to cover. Below are a few trends if you’re into that sort of thing.
- Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (9-3, +5.83 units)
The Woodman is tearing it up this season and kept his mojo intact last week when he wisely advised a play on the Broncos +3 at home over the Chargers. The game was never in doubt as Denver battered the Bolts, 28-13, covering the NFL odds by a wide margin.
Speaking of which, the Chargers have revealed themselves as true paper tigers this season. They beat up the weak kids and get blasted by the bullies. I think they’re due for another beating this week against the Bengals. Okay, so the Woodman has awoken from his slumber after another Sunday of debauchery, celebrating his win from last week, and says he saw the Broncos return to him in a dream.
He just loves those puppies as the Broncos travel to Arrowhead with 10 points in hand to take on the surging Kansas City Chiefs. May the winds of fortune be at your back Woodman (a little dramatic, doncha think?).
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.