Swinger ended the 2021 NFL regular-season plus units for the umpteenth time and now it is on to the postseason to keep cashing those NFL picks and making the bookies cry. Let’s see what SJ has in store for us in the Wild Card round this weekend.
So, here’s the thing, we ended the season +3.67 units and we did it, as we always do, without using manufactured lines in every game we cap, fudging the results, increasing the unit size to absurd amounts trying to get even whatever we happen to be down for the year, or tossing in a winning prop pick that nobody sees because it was never published – anywhere!
We play it straight and fortunately, we wind up winning year after year. Last season was sensational while this year was only a scooch better than average. But if you tailed me this year then you at least made a few bucks, which is more than you can say for your buddies who busted through their bankrolls halfway through the season.
Last week we came so close to a sweep, but alas, the Chiefs only won by a field goal and we lost three units on that swing and a miss. However, we got well with the Jaguars for three units and the Bills for four units giving us a season-ending +3.67 units to the good. If you’re a $100 bettor then you had 18 weeks of action and made $367 for watching the games you love.
Okay, so let’s move on to the Wild Card round and see if we can ruin the bookies’ weekend. Nothing would make me happier – let’s go!
Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record: 26-22 ATS (+3.67 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at Paul Brown Stadium
This is a rematch of the 32-13 Bengals’ Week 11 win over the Raiders that took place in Las Vegas. And now the Bengals get the luxury of Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon fresh as daisies because they, like several other Cincy starters, got last week off.
On the flip side, Las Vegas was playing until about midnight on Sunday to cop a 35-32 overtime victory over the Chargers and a ticket to the postseason. One team will be rested while the other will be gassed. The Bengals will allow the Raiders very little room to run which means this will come down to a multidimensional Cincinnati offense versus whatever Derek Carr can muster.
Joe Burrow is one of the most electric quarterbacks in the league and Joe Mixon is an elite runner. This Bengals team is for real and what makes anyone believe the Raiders will be able to do any better than they did only a few weeks ago when they were snuffed by the Cats?
This should be a bigger wager but the NFL odds on this one concerns me because the line looks too low which means there could be some wise guy action on the underdogs.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 16, 2022 - 08:15 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium
This game was the subject of my weekly Point/Counterpoint feature with fellow BMR capper, Doug Upstone. And while I cited several trends and stats in that article, what I failed to introduce was this little gem: double-digit underdogs in the playoffs (excluding the Super Bowl) are 1-10 ATS since 2010. And to be truthful (because I usually lie), I am digging the line where it is right now, KC -12 ½, which is under two important numbers, 13 and 14.
However, don’t sleep on this because I am seeing this line climb at many of the best online sportsbooks.
These teams already met once this season and the Chiefs absolutely crushed the Steelers, 36-10, just a few weeks ago. I ask you, what’s changed? Well, the line has gone up a few points but other than that, we have another mismatch in the making as KC’s No. 3 offense in total yards will chew up Pittsburgh’s 24th ranked defense in total yards allowed. And here’s Ben Roethlisberger himself, talking about his team’s chances.
"We haven't discussed it, but I would assume as a group you understand that we probably aren't supposed to be here," Roethlisberger said on Wednesday. "We're probably not a very good football team. Out of the 14 teams that are in, we're probably number 14. We're double-digit underdogs in the playoffs. So, let's just go play, have fun and see what happens."
"We're probably 20-point underdogs, and we're going to the No. 1 team that's won the AFC the last two years. Arguably the best team in football. We don't have a chance, so let's just go play and have fun."
I have read many pundits chalk this up to gamesmanship but that’s not the case. This is Big Ben’s final game of his career and he has the luxury of being completely truthful. The man is exactly right so fade the Steelers and cash a ticket!
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, January 17, 2022 - 08:15 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
The Cardinals have dropped four of their last five and that streak started with a 30-23 Week 14 loss to these same Rams they will be playing on Monday night. But the Cardinals will get back to being the same dazzling team they were before this losing streak began. And the best team to get well against is the LA Rams, a team that watched a 17-point lead melt like butter in a blast furnace when they allowed the 49ers to creep back in and beat them, 27-24, in overtime.
Matthew Stafford has put up good numbers this year but I believe his chronic back issues got the best of him as the season wound down. In addition, the Cards will be getting J.J. Watt back on defense and his mere presence on the field positively impacts that entire unit. I like Arizona to win this game outright because LA is one of those good teams just begging to fold in the big moments. They’ll get their wish on Monday night.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +4 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2021 NFL Record (11-7, +3.43 units)
The Woodman seems to do his best work when he does what comes naturally, bet the underdogs. He went against his better judgment last week when he bet with his heart and backed the Pats in a spot that has proven disastrous for New England. When the Patriots play the Dolphins in Miami in December and January, they own a 2-9 record over their last 11 contests including New England’s 33-24 loss last Sunday.
But this week he’s back to his dog lovin’ ways and is taking the Pittsburgh Steelers +12 ½ which is completely opposite of your old buddy Swinger’s four-unit play on the Chiefs. Good luck Woodman…not.
Woodman's Pick: Steelers +12 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.