Steelers vs. Colts Week 12 MNF’s Player Props: T.J. Watt Coming After Matt Ryan

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T.J. Watt #90 of the Pittsburgh Steelers reacts after a tackle against the New Orleans Saints. Justin K. Aller/Getty Images/AFP.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1) meet Monday night as the two are experiencing difficult seasons, especially on the offensive side with their new quarterbacks.  

The Colts are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 39 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. We look at some prop picks for what is expected to be a defensive game. All the odds are courtesy of Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts 

Monday, November 28, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

Quarterback Props

Kenny Pickett (Steelers) 

  • Over/Under 210.5 Passing Yards 

If there is one thing the Steelers have shown with rookie Kenny Pickett this season, it is that they are not afraid to let him throw. He has attempted at least 30 passes in every start he’s finished, and he usually has gone over 37.5 attempts as well. 

Pickett already has road starts this year with 327 yards in Buffalo and 257 yards in Miami. He just passed for 265 yards last week against the Bengals in a 37-30 game at home.

Stop the Run

The Colts have been pretty stout against the run, allowing 3.8 yards per carry (ranked No. 2). This might not be a good game for Najee Harris on the ground like the last two weeks have been. 

The Colts do not allow a ton of passing yards, but quarterbacks are completing 68.1% of their passes with 7.0 yards per attempt against them this season. They lack an elite pass rusher too.  

Take the low over for Pickett’s yards as he looks to get his wide receivers more involved this week.  

NFL Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

Defensive Props

T.J. Watt (Steelers) 

  • Over/Under 0.5 Sacks 

We usually do not look at defensive props, but if there’s anything to bet on in this game involving Matt Ryan that could be considered a lock, it should be him taking a sack from T.J. Watt.

Playing the Matchup

Watt had 0.5 sacks last week against the Bengals. Now he gets an immobile target in Ryan behind a lousy line that has allowed their veteran quarterback to be sacked multiple times in all but two games this season. Ryan took four sacks against the Eagles last week. 

Watt had 2.0 sacks against the Colts in 2020 and 1.5 sacks against them in 2019 when the lines were in better shape. He had 3.0 sacks in 2018 the last time he faced Ryan with the Falcons. 

This is a great opportunity for Watt to shine in prime time and get at least one sack for your NFL picks

NFL Pick: T.J. Watt Over 0.5 Sacks (-157) at Bovada

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T.J. Watt Over 0.5 Sacks (-157)
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Running Back Props 

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) 

  • Over/Under 86.5 Rushing Yards 

This season has been a real disappointment for Taylor, who has been injured and seen his production drop even when healthy. He had 10 100-yard rushing games last season and has only put up two so far this season. 

Taylor has been held under 86.5 rushing yards in 6-of-8 games played this season.  

The Steelers certainly have damaged their reputation as an elite run defense in recent years, but things have been good again in 2022. The Steelers rank No. 7 in rushing yards allowed and No. 5 in yards per carry allowed. 

Temper Your Expectations

Two weeks ago, the Steelers held the Saints to 29 rushing yards with Alvin Kamara only gaining 26 yards. Last week, Joe Mixon left the game for Cincinnati with a concussion, but the Bengals as a team only rushed for 62 yards on 24 carries. 

The Colts are not going to give up on the run in this matchup, but most of the Steelers’ defensive problems are in the secondary and that is where they give up the big plays. I can trust the run defense to hold up and keep Taylor under 86.5 yards. 

NFL Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 86.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Bovada 

Receiver Props 

Parris Campbell (Colts) 

  • Over/Under 42.5 Receiving Yards 

In his fourth season, Parris Campbell is finally having the kind of season the Colts wanted out of him when they made him a second-round pick in 2019.  

Campbell has gone over 42.5 yards in five of his last six games, including back-to-back games over 66.5 yards coming into this one. He scored a game-winning touchdown against the Raiders two weeks ago on his way to 76 yards. 

Fire In the Slot

The Steelers have plenty of issues in the secondary and their defensive backs are the biggest weakness. Campbell can play in the slot and make yards after the catch to take advantage of this secondary. 

Shifty slot receivers usually give the Steelers more problems than tall, outside receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. 

I would trust Campbell to hit his over if an Indianapolis wide receiver is going to do that in this game.  

NFL Pick: Parris Campbell Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

Long Shot Touchdown Scorers 

Diontae Johnson (Steelers)

What does it take to get Diontae Johnson a touchdown catch in 2022? Johnson has the most targets (86), catches (51), and receiving yards (456) without a touchdown in 2022. 

He caught eight touchdowns last year and seven the year before, and he is still more or less the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense. But this is where having a rookie like Pickett is a problem. He has three touchdown passes so far and throwing any to Johnson has proven impossible. 

We are just waiting for this streak to end for Johnson as if you give a talented player enough opportunities, one of them should break for a score. What better opportunity than on a Monday night game? 

NFL Pick: Diontae Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+280) at Bovada

Mo Alie-Cox (Colts)

With these two offenses, you could argue that everyone is a long shot to score a touchdown. We already mentioned Diontae Johnson’s prolific numbers without having a touchdown, but Michael Pittman Jr. for the Colts is arguably the most productive receiver this year who has just one touchdown. 

If we’re not going to trust Pittman or for Matt Ryan to sneak one in, let’s just go with the Steelers forgetting to cover the tight end on a play-action pass in the red zone. 

Mo Alie-Cox has two touchdowns this year, and he still plays the most snaps at tight end for this offense. Let’s go with him as our longshot scorer for the Colts with NFL odds of +420. 

NFL Pick: Mo Alie-Cox Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+420) at Bovada

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.