Seahawks vs. Buccaneers NFL Week 10 Picks and Prediction: Upset in Low Scoring Contest?

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Kenneth Walker III #9 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals. Chris Coduto/Getty Images/AFP.

We have one last contest this season in which two teams have to cross the Atlantic Ocean when Seattle and Tampa Bay fly to Munich, Germany.

These two football teams have history between them as both joined the NFL as expansion teams in 1976. These two last met in 2019 in Seattle, with the Seahawks prevailing 40-34 as four-point favorites.

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 09:30 AM EST at Allianz Arena

What to Expect From the Seahawks

Seattle has been one of the top surprises in the NFC this season and rest assured, nobody had the Seahawks sitting on top of the NFC West heading into Week 10.

Quarterback Geno Smith has been as amazing as any player in the league this year. All those years of being dismissed yet toiling away have paid off being the right offense that utilizes his skills.

Make no mistake, it helps to have receivers like Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and the tight end combination of Will Dissly and Noah Fant. However, the biggest key from this perspective is having a running game that works on first down or third down. Rashaad Penny got it going early and after he was injured, rookie Kenneth Walker III has fit in seamlessly.

After being one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Pete Carroll’s crew has shown improvement the past 4 weeks and while the overall stats are still poor, they have allowed 16.5 points a game the last month.

What to Expect From the Buccaneers

It has been a rough go for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have lost 5 of 7 and have not covered the number since Week 2 (0-6-1 ATS).

The Tampa Bay offensive line cannot open holes and the running game is the worst in the NFL. That places the entire offense on Tom Brady’s 45-year-old shoulders to have his team move the ball by passing.

Of course, the opposing team knows this, and lacking that home run threat (Antonio Brown) or extremely dependable third-down pass catcher (Rob Gronkowski) in the offense, the coverages are tighter and Brady has to throw in narrower windows to try and keep the chains moving without a running game.

The Buccaneers’ defense was supposed to be one of the best in the NFL this season and it looked that way the first 3 weeks of the season. Not anymore as injury and poor play have dropped the Bucs out of the Top 10 in yards allowed and they are the bottom third of the league in rushing yards surrendered.

Who Covers the Spread?

Seattle outscored Arizona this past week 31-14 after giving up an opening drive touchdown to the Cardinals and looks underrated.

Tampa Bay went more than 59 minutes without a touchdown at home against the Rams last Sunday and had more drops than a toddler trying to play catch. Yet, Tom Brady turned into the quarterback we have always known and led his team to a game-winning drive versus Los Angeles. 

As it turns out, this is now a battle of NFC division leaders, though the Buccaneers are 4-5 and tied with Atlanta.

The best sportsbooks are giving us a strong clue about what could happen, Brady and the Bucs are just a 1.5-point favorite when reviewing the NFL odds (the original opening line was Tampa Bay -7).

There is little doubt whether Pete Carroll is the better coach in this game and Seattle can run or pass, something the Bucs cannot do having the worst-rated rushing attack in the NFL and Seattle is 9-1 ATS as an underdog of one or more points off a win and cover against a conference foe off a victory.

NFL Pick: Seattle +2 (-106) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Seattle +1.5 (-106)
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What Is the Right Side for Totals?

The total is hovering around 44.5 which would seem to favor the Seahawks because of their offense. Yet, with the Bucs' offensive struggles, Seattle could well hold them to some field goals when they get in Seahawks territory.

With Seattle 14-2 Under in back-to-back away games, we’ll make the Seahawks a 21-20 winner for our NFL picks in a tight contest throughout.

NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 44.5 (-110)
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What Prop Bets Appear Safe?

Honestly, it's hard to find many offensive positives about Tampa Bay when it comes to props. Two possibilities are Brady for pass attempts and completions, just make certain the numbers make sense.

Instead, Kenneth Walker III for an anytime touchdown has its merits. Also, take a hard look at Lockett or Metcalf for an anytime TD and study the passing yards on those two and TE Fant because the Buccaneers' secondary has holes that can be exposed.

NFL Pick: Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD Scorer (-130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD Scorer (-130)
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NFL Pick: Tom Brady Anytime TD Scorer (+1100) at Bovada

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Tom Brady Anytime TD Scorer (+1100)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.