Week 13 in the NFL concludes on Monday with an NFC South matchup – where no team may finish with a winning record – as the New Orleans Saints visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let’s look at the NFL odds and find our best betting picks.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, December 5, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
ESPN has the Monday night telecast per usual and the ManningCast is also back this week as the Saints and Buccaneers wrap up their season series.
New Orleans had owned Tom Brady in the regular season since he arrived in Tampa, but that changed in Week 2 when the Bucs won 20-10 in the Big Easy. That game was likely most memorable for Brady throwing a couple of temper tantrums, one that led to a skirmish, which resulted in the ejections of Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore and Bucs receiver Mike Evans. Keep an eye on that matchup if Lattimore returns from injury because those two have major history.
Brady threw for 190 yards and a TD that day, but Tampa Bay managed only 260 yards. New Orleans was starting former Bucs No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston under center then, and he was picked off three times. The Saints lost because they gave it away five times overall.
New Orleans is 7-3 against the spread in the past 10 meetings. The total has gone under in four of the past five.
Time For Saints QB Change?
New Orleans is last in the NFC South at 4-8, but still only two games back in the loss column behind first-place Tampa Bay. I see no path to the division title for this team as it’s too offensively challenged and absolutely will be looking for a new starting QB this offseason.
Those offensive issues were on display this past Sunday as the Saints lost 13-0 in San Francisco. New Orleans had the fourth-longest streak in NFL history without being blanked, as their last shutout also came at the hands of the 49ers in the 2001 finale. The Saints had just 260 yards. Andy Dalton was 18-for-29 for 204 yards, but the running game was non-existent and Alvin Kamara lost two fumbles for the first time in his career.
There’s no word on which QB Dennis Allen will start under center here, but I’d be willing to bet it’s Jameis Winston, who originally lost the job due to injury but hasn’t been listed on the injury report for weeks. He’s more apt to turn the ball over but also has a higher ceiling than Dalton.
Sunday’s loss marked the debut of rookie tackle Trevor Penning, one of the team's two first-round draft picks in 2022, and the return to the lineup of defensive ends Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, cornerback Bradley Roby, running back Mark Ingram, and left tackle James Hurst. However, Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore remained inactive.
New Orleans is 0-5 against the spread in its past five road games – the only team in the NFL without a road cover in 2022. A straight-up loss here and the Saints would automatically “win” the under for their season win total as it was set at 8.5.
Below-.500 Division Champ?
Tampa Bay leads the NFC South at 5-6 and is a -400 favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to win it – which it should. There have been only three teams to win a division with a losing record: 2020 Washington at 7-9 in the NFC East, 2014 Carolina at 7-8-1 in the NFC South and 2010 Seattle at 7-9 in the NFC West.
The Bucs just can’t seem to get their offense going as they came out of their bye on Sunday and still looked lousy in a 23-17 OT loss in Cleveland. Tampa Bay allowed the tying touchdown with 32 seconds left in regulation, and Nick Chubb scored on a 3-yard touchdown run with 19 seconds left in overtime. The Browns held Tampa Bay without a point on its final seven possessions.
Tom Brady threw for 246 yards and two scores but was quite inaccurate at times. Top running back Leonard Fournette was out but could return here. Rookie Rachaad White had 64 yards on 14 carries.
The Lineup for Monday
Tampa has been hammered by injuries on the offensive line all season and took the biggest hit in Sunday’s loss as two-time All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss multiple weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain. He was just the ninth offensive lineman since 1990 to be named a first-team All-Pro in his first two seasons.
The Buccaneers will be playing in prime time for the fourth time this season. They opened the year with a 19-3 win in Dallas on Sunday night in opening week, but have subsequently lost to Kansas City on Sunday night in Week 4 and to Baltimore on Thursday night in Week 8. Brady is a gruesome 2-11 ATS in his 13 prime-time starts with the Bucs including playoffs.
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Final Pick and Prediction
Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 20 - New Orleans 17
- Buccaneers ML (-185)
- Under 40 Points (-110)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.