Rams vs. Packers Week 15 MNF Top Player Props: Does Baker Mayfield Have an Encore?  

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Baker Mayfield #17 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at SoFi Stadium on December 08, 2022. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

The Green Bay Packers (5-8) can keep their slim playoff hopes alive this Monday night if they can beat the Los Angeles Rams (4-9). The Packers had a bye while the Rams had a few extra days off for Baker Mayfield to learn the playbook and the names of his teammates after that unbelievable comeback win against the Raiders in Week 14. 

But when this has the potential to be the last primetime start at home for Aaron Rodgers in his Green Bay career, you know he’ll want to play well against a Rams team he has a 6-1 record. 

The Packers are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 39.5 points at many of our top-rated sportsbooks. We have found our favorite NFL prop picks for this NFC matchup of two disappointing teams this year.

NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 193.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-186) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-186)
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Monday, December 19, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field

Quarterback Props

Baker Mayfield (Rams) 

  • Under 193.5 Passing Yards 
  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted 

It was a Hollywood ending for Mayfield against the Raiders, leading the biggest comeback of his career after just landing in Los Angeles 48 hours before the game. He led a 98-yard game-winning touchdown drive that started in the final two minutes, possibly the first of its kind in NFL history. 

What does Mayfield have for an encore? Well, hopefully, it’s better than the four interceptions he threw in Green Bay last Christmas as a member of the Browns. 

Harsh Reality

The harsh reality is that despite this brilliant comeback, Mayfield still ranks dead last in QBR (23.2) this season. He had a rough stop in Carolina, and even in this game against a Raiders defense that has blown leads in historic fashion all season, Mayfield was sitting on 150 passing yards at the two-minute warning before passing for 80 yards on the final drive. 

Without Cooper Kupp or Allen Robinson, this passing offense is not much for the Rams. It wasn’t much with them either this season. Even before an injury knocked him out of the Saints game, Matthew Stafford had passed for under 200 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. 

Prop Analysis

Mayfield has played in eight games this season and has been held under 200 yards in five of them. The Packers have held the starting quarterback of five teams under 160 yards this year, including Jalen Hurts (153) and Jared Goff (137). 

Mayfield is going to make this game more entertaining to watch than if the Rams had to start one of their other backups, but chances are he’s going to make the mistakes that remind us why he was claimed on waivers in December by his third team this calendar year. 

Take the under and for Mayfield to get intercepted for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 193.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada 

NFL Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-186) at Bovada

Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns 

When these teams met in late November 2021, Rodgers threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in a 36-28 win. The following week against Chicago, Rodgers had 341 yards and four touchdowns. In his last 18 games since Rodgers has not passed for 300 yards nor has he thrown four touchdowns. 

This has obviously been the toughest season of his career, and it won’t help that the Rams are thinking they can get Aaron Donald back on defense for this game. But if there is one thing Rodgers has continued to do moderately well: throw multiple touchdowns. He has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 9-of-13 games this season

Rookie Fever

It sure helps that rookie Christian Watson has exploded down the stretch, and Rodgers may be getting his other quality rookie wideout back from injury in Romeo Doubs. This could be the first time all season we get an idea of what the intended youth movement at receiver to replace Davante Adams is supposed to look like. 

Rodgers’ yardage is a bit too unpredictable cause you never know when this team will feature Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the backfield over his passing this year, but we know Rodgers can throw short touchdown passes with the best of them. He should be good for a pair here. 

NFL Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112) at Bovada

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Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
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Running Back Props 

Cam Akers (Rams) 

  • Over 54.5 Rushing Yards 

Not in love with this pick, but the running back props are not good in this matchup. The Packers have allowed 16 rushers to gain at least 55 yards this year, including at least one in every single game except in Tampa Bay, the 32nd-ranked run offense. 

The Rams aren’t much better with a ranking of 30th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry. But Cam Akers has been up and down since getting back into the rotation. In the last four games, Akers has put up 61, 37, 60, and 42 yards. With the 42 yards against the Raiders, hopefully, this is a positive matchup for him, and he gets back to that 60 range to hit this over. 

This sure is the right defense to do it against. 

NFL Pick: Cam Akers Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-109) at Bovada

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Cam Akers Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
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Receiver Props

Christian Watson (Packers) 

  • Over 47.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Watson’s progression has been incredible. He went from Rodgers having zero trust in him to being a weekly touchdown scorer, and often from many yards away. Four of Watson’s nine touchdowns are 39-plus yards. 

Watson has eight touchdowns in just his last four games. He also has two 100-yard games in that span, and he finished with exactly 48 yards in the other two games. 

The Rams have Jalen Ramsey at corner, but he is not having one of his best seasons, and offenses have figured out how to move receivers away from him for big plays. That matchup should give you zero concerns about Watson’s ability to score another touchdown and hit his over in yards as Green Bay’s most impressive receiver. 

NFL Pick: Christian Watson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada 

NFL Pick: Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140) at Bovada

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Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
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Ben Skowronek (Rams) 

  • Over 31.5 Receiving Yards 

If you squint enough, Ben Skowronek looks like Cooper Kupp if he was a Stretch Armstrong doll. Either this line is incredibly low and the steal of the week, or the Raiders are so bad they allowed Skowronek to catch seven balls for 89 yards.

But when a quarterback has so few other options, we should consider what the new norm looks like for this offense without Kupp and Allen Robinson. Skowronek had four games in a row earlier this season with over 31.5 yards, so it would only make sense for him to hit that number again here as a starter. 

NFL Pick: Ben Skowronek Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada 

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Ben Skowronek Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
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Van Jefferson (Rams) 

  • Over 33.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Again, is there some kind of blizzard headed for Green Bay this Monday night that I am missing? This is another very low line for an offense that lost its two wide receivers. Jefferson has missed most of the season with an injury, but he has had at least 39 yards in three of the last four games. The only one he didn’t was the Kansas City game when Bryce Perkins had to start. 

Prop Analysis

Jefferson has also caught a touchdown in three of the last five games, including the game-winning score against the Raiders from Mayfield. We’re viewing the touchdown as a longshot choice here, but if someone is going to score one for the Rams, Jefferson might be the best value pick available. 

There’s also the fact that Jefferson has gone over 40 yards and scored a touchdown in each of the last two seasons at Green Bay. Not saying both things are going to happen again for sure, but the yards should at least hit and the NFL odds for anytime scorer have too much value. 

If you're located in Los Angeles and want to bet on this game, feel free to check out our California betting sites guide.

NFL Pick: Van Jefferson Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Van Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350) at Bovada 

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Van Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.